Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

NEW YORK — The stock market wrapped up a volatile week with its biggest two-day rally since the start of the year on hopes divided lawmakers are close to striking a deal that will enable the U.S. to pay all of its bills on time and avoid a confidence-shattering default.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 111 points, or 0.7%, to 15,237 on Friday, a day after shooting up 323 points for its biggest one-day point gain since December 2011. The Dow's two-day gain of 434 points, was its biggest back-to-back point jump since the so-called "fiscal cliff" was narrowly averted late last year, resulting in a two-day jump of nearly 475 points on the last trading day of 2012 and the first trading session of 2013.

But investors shouldn't get too overconfident until they see the details of the final deal hammered out between Republicans and Democrats, who are expected to keep talking over the weekend, Wall Street strategists say. The latest Republican proposal would only raise the debt ceiling by enough to last six weeks, nor would it end the 11-day-old government shutdown.

There's no denying that the perceived thaw in the icy relationship between the nation's two political parties suggests they are moving closer to a deal to raise the debt ceiling by the Oct. 17 deadline and avoid the first-ever U.S. default. But it's also clear the deal currently under discussion comes with its fair share of caveats.

For one, a temporary extension of the debt ceiling will simply push off the "crunch date," or new deadline, until later this year, creating yet another layer of uncertainty. What's more, not reopening the government soon also poses additional risks to the economy, which could further damage consumer confidence and corporate earnings. There's always a chance a deal doesn't get done.

All three of those scenarios will cause market volatility to return.

While the odds favor this current political crisis "winding down," a six-week debt-ceiling extension "means we might have to do this all over again in November," says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management.

Investors expecting the Dow to jump another 300 points when a deal is finalized might be expecting too much, adds Alec Young, global equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ.

The stock market, he says, has already priced in a best-case scenario, including an extension of the debt ceiling by the Thursday deadline and an end to the shutdown.

"In the short term, the stock market has probably priced in more than politicians are likely to deliver," Young says.

If lawmakers extend the debt ceiling but don't reopen the government and the shutdown drags on for weeks, there is a risk that the economic fallout will take a bigger bite out of growth.

"Just because the market has enjoyed a relief rally doesn't mean we can take our eyes off Washington," Young says.

OBC,

Re post 30949, the thing that you seem to be neglecting is that the market makers are simply matching limited supply with demand at £4.50 on a small amount of the RMG issued share capital. Sure, they're knocking out 500k slugs at £4.50, but that doesn't mean that the company as a whole would be worth that. When the guys who were organising the sale decided to price it at £3.30, they were selling the whole company in one hit and they priced it accordingly. Sure, they could've probably got away with another 20p or 30p because there's an army of sentimental pensioners sitting on a shedload of cash at the moment, but they'd have probably struggled if they'd priced it at a full quid higher because most of the institutions would have baulked at that price.

You drew a comparison with an estate agent selling a house, but estate agents generally have a benchmark to refer to. For instance, they can look at Land Registry records and say "next door sold for £500k last month, so we'll price this place at £520k". When was the last time a country sold off its nationalised mail delivery business for any kind of comparison? All the guys organising the sale had to go on with RM was some flakey fundamentals and a guess at Joe Public's appetite for risk on something they'd become sentimental about.

If you don't understand what I'm saying, I challenge you to stick 500m shares on the offer at £4.56 on Monday and see how many you actually sell at that price.

IPOs are always a risky business, Facebook being a good example. The share price tanked after the float partly due to a very high price. It has taken quite a time for it to return to the float price.


RM is certainly in the FTSE 250 and may make FTSE 100 when the lists are changed in December. The various funds have to have specific proportions invested in certain indexes. That is going to generate a lot of trades initially. I read that there were 48m buyers and 1.2m sellers. That's bound to make an impact on the price.

I read that there were 48m sellers and 1.2m buyers
sounds like a misquote of my post 126 on RMG thread..... IG L2 shows bid/offer of 55m to 3m (at 08:50 on 10/11)

No, it was in the Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/business-news-markets-live/10371566/Royal-Mail-share-float-as-it-happened-October-11-2013.html

doh! just read it and you have it back to front!!

Exactly! I thought the right way round, but wrote it wrong and forgot to read it back. I got distracted by my son wanting food. Thanks. I will correct it.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/?icid=gnavbaruk_rootnews

Public think benefit cap claimants should work or move

The vast majority (70%) of the public think people affected by the benefit cap should be prepared to find jobs or work more hours and two-thirds (65%) say they should be willing to move to a cheaper property.

Independent research published today (10 October 2013) shows that 60% support the cap even if it means that those affected have to take a job, regardless of the pay.

The Ipsos MORI report shows public attitudes towards the benefit cap and is published following the completion of its national rollout last month.

The Ipsos MORI report finds:

around three-quarters of the public support the benefit cap in principle
58% think that politicians needed to do more to reduce the welfare bill
50% think that benefits are too generous
11% think the benefits system is working effectively

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Iain Duncan Smith said:

Today’s report makes it clear that the public support setting a limit on benefits and the successful delivery of the benefit cap shows we are committed to returning fairness to the welfare state.

Claimants affected by the cap need to make decisions about work and housing and what they can afford, just as hardworking families do.

We have made sure the support is there to help people back into work and the benefit cap and Universal Credit will ensure that work pays.

The benefit cap limits are set at £500 a week for couples, with or without children, and lone parent households, and at £350 a week for households of a single adult with no children. The cap is in place nationwide for existing appropriate claimants and all new claims are subject to the cap.

Since claimants were first notified of the benefit cap in April 2012, Jobcentre Plus have helped around 16,500 potentially capped claimants into work.

an interesting comment yesterday that tightened unemployment benefit rules have resulted in a significant number of people "disappearing" from the register, with the implication being that they were already working in some capacity

True scale of European immigration

An EU study has found 600,000 unemployed migrants are living in Britain - a 42 per cent rise


By Robert Mendick, and Claire Duffin

9:45PM BST 12 Oct 2013



More than 600,000 unemployed European Union migrants are living in Britain at a cost of £1.5 billion to the NHS alone, according to an EU report.


The authoritative study, obtained by The Sunday Telegraph, shows the number of jobless European migrants coming to Britain has risen dramatically in the past five years, intensifying demands for the Government to renegotiate EU membership.


Opponents of the EU seized on the figures to suggest Britain could not afford to allow European migrants to come here at will while continuing to provide a universal benefits system.


The 291-page report, to be published this week by the European commissioner in charge of employment and welfare, discloses:


• The number of “non-active” EU migrants in Britain has risen by 42 per cent between 2006 and 2012;


More: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10375358/True-scale-of-European-immigration.html

Is the EU exporting its unemployed to Britain? And will they bankrupt us?

By David Craig, on October 10th, 2013


Politicians and journalists will play around with the statistics around immigration - usually to try to claim that immigration is “under control”, “good for Britain”, “beneficial for our economy” and “an enrichment to our cultural life”. But they won’t ever talk about the real trends and costs in immigration – shortage of housing, pressure on schools, hospitals and policing and drain on our benefits system.

So I’ve started trying to see what the immigration figures are really telling us. To measure immigration I’ve used the Government’s figures for the number of foreigners registering for National Insurance (NI) numbers each year.

My first chart shows the overall number broken down by region of origin (click to see more clearly)





The first thing you’ll notice is that the number of migrants getting NI numbers went up from about 340,000 a year in 2002/03 to about 420,000 a year in 2004/05 - a rise of over 40,000 a year. Then the number shot up from 420,000 a year in 2004/05 to almost 800,000 a year by 2007/08 – a massive rise of about 130,000 a year. This was due to people from the A8 accession countries (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) moving to Britain.

Then the numbers of foreigners getting NI numbers “stabilised” at a fairly shocking 600,000 to 700,000 a year – that’s an incredible 12,000 to 14,000 a week (2,400 to 2,800 every working day). However, when the 29 million people from Romania and Bulgaria get full rights to move freely to Britain for work or benefits (or both), we can expect the number of migrants getting NI numbers to shoot up again to close to 900,000 or even 1,000,000 a year.


More: http://www.snouts-in-the-trough.com/archives/7007

Help to buy - the argument in favour
the longish article in ST Biz (page 4) is worth a read, but for those who only get the Sunday Sport (for guess the bra size?) or the Socialist Worker on Sunday (for the whippet racing results?), the following little snippet will do as a taster, though the whole is well worth the read ....

"Help to Buy is artificial but no more than the myriad schemes, including ultra-low interest rates and quantitive easing, introduced to lift the economy. This one has the merit that, in the first phase at least, it is working"

Is it national bra day today. Read two comments about bras today. One from mitzy on the midas thread. :-))

i didn't want to remind the donkeys that it's actually national braying day!

The uptick in the housing market should have some nock on effects in the wider economy. Furniture, DIY, local builders for improvements, estate agents, solicitors etc will all benefit from people moving. Their incomes will trickle down. The government will get income from stamp duty and tax on the support businesses above. It would be a mistake to underestimate the net effect of increased activity in the housing sector.

Talking about the housing market. Just seen in the local that the Beckhams have off loaded there house at Sawbridgeworth for a reported £12 million along with a few sports cars and a house in France as well.


The website Homes24 estimates Rowneybury is worth £8,416,869.

Cost of sending a first class letter 'to hit £1 within a few years'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/royal-mail/9977658/Cost-of-sending-a-first-class-letter-to-hit-1-within-a-few-years.html

Exploding Toilet Leaves Man Scared To Flush
Sky NewsSky News – Sat, Oct 12, 2013..

A man has been seriously injured after a toilet exploded in his face when he was checking the water pressure in his New York apartment.

Michel Pierre needed 30 stitches after his face, arms and legs were struck by shards of porcelain.

The 58-year-old, who was temporarily knocked unconscious by the blast, is now so scared his loo will burst again that he flushes it using a rope while hiding behind his bathroom door.

"Obviously there is a serious problem in the building," his lawyer Sanford Rubenstein said.

"Clearly toilets are supposed to flush, not explode."

Mr Pierre is seeking compensation from the management company of the 16-storey block, which was built in 1964 and contains 275 flats.

The water had been turned off on the day his toilet and three others exploded, and it is thought a build-up of air pressure that was pushed through pipes when the supply was switched back on may be to blame.

Theresa Racht, a lawyer representing the building's board, said: "This is a horrific incident. Everybody feels terrible that such a thing could have happened.

"It certainly makes me think twice about flushing the toilet when the water's been turned off."

She added: "This could very well be what we call a true accident."

And why not? Who sends letters these days. It is a trend. How many telephone boxes do you see? It is the same with the old telegram service. Almost anything can be done with email these days. How long did it take to take a film photograph and get it processed. You could always travel to India via a tea clipper. Cash is fast disappearing together with cheques.