I have just come across this absolute gem. I don't normally get this excited, but must share it with others. Cobra is the name, listed on Aim and a market cap of 30 million. Just been awarded a US patent for a system that allows people to take previously injected drugs in tablet form. Already profitable was floated off from MLB last year (and given their fundraising today they may regret ever letting this one go).
Collins Stewart are predicting 1.8 million this year and 3.1 million next year, though i can see those numbers being left behind. The company is both exciting and defensive because some of the products that can be taken are against cancer, anthrax and other potentially fatal diseases. (Hoping of course there will never be another terrorist outrage but even then this stock would be one to have onside.) Turnover has doubled in the last twelve months and the potential really is amazing. Biotechs not usually my style but this one is already profitable and i just have to have some in my portfolio.

Director buying of late has been disapointing. This most-recent is barely into four figures....a real statement with ca 50k+ is what I'm looking for. "Sell the kids + car etc. slap it on the Company".
Interesting RNS, so thanks Thirdeye for drawing attention to it, seems they can deal with the day to day stuff as one would hope. I am a holder of this stock.

Hi hangon sorry I didn't get back to you. Good post. It is still an investment psychology thing, for me. They gave a warning, said they'd break even and lost 1.8 million. The cashburn is a concern and i can't see institutions giving this a look again until management prove themselves to the City.

As you say they seem able to handle the day to day business but that is a small start to a very long repair job. It is on my watchlist but I'd hate to jump in too early and then see they have still not got a grip at the next results, because then the price could go through the floor, even from here another 50%.

Better managements elsewhere more worthy of support imho, for now. Could see these break below 20p in next few months, then if next results indicate a recovery I might be interested again. Good luck though, promising products and patents, some cash.

Be nice if some posters checked their facts to see how much they actually did lose second half, no wonder they sold :-)


Hangon, CBF expect a meaningful improvement in the second half, so that would have to result in a profit if it materialises.

Furthermore I look at CBF like this, some were attracted with a 30m valuation, now you can buy your share for pro-rata circa 5m, what have you lost for saving circa 25m?

Well, 1.2m loss, & a big downturn in the DNA section. However there are three other sectors in this infant business which are still growing strongly.


On a risk reward basis, it's speculative, but a pretty good gamble in my opinion.



Also you can buy at mid price, market makers are looking for business in these quiet times so, negotiation should take place & the spread shouldn't put anyone off, only for those who have done their own research though.




To summarise a 25m saving (at one sixth of the price it was) in paying for the company in an exciting infant industry, appears a fair speculation to me.

Or put another way: .....stripping cash out at least at March interims using today's market cap of circa 5m, the business is valued at 1.2m ( circa)


So for a business that was valued at say 25m (excluding cash) is now valued at 1/20th @ circa 1.2m.

Falling back again, failing to hold recent lows. No worthwhile support from institutional backers, loss of faith in management.

I hope for all investors the next results can start the repair job. But mms must be stuck with a mountain of unwanted stock. Worth waiting to get these at still significantly lower level, if the institutions eventually return.

Sorry hangon to be so down on this one, but it looks a long road ahead. I really do hope to get back in again at some point. Up to management to prove themselves first, at least for me.

I Agree the institutions may be holding back; but with the slipping price Directors today (Wed.7July04) have been pretty active. With earlier Dir. buys this shows support at least for the cash (24p rumoured) and the Co. future.
My buy-price is now just under today's spread. Yipee - er, soon. The company has announced some deals and I'm still hoping there will be more to follow....it would be foolish to think they are not aware of the damage the loss of a large chunk of business has on sentiment. I guess most punters expected a rabbit to be pulled from the hat... it wasn't.
Sadly in the real World, sales are the result of long negotiations and cosy-ing with the customer. Only Blue-Sky companies can see sales reaching telephone numbers year-on-year and like Mugs we believe figures "plucked from the wind".
Cobra is, IMHO a worthwhile producer of real products. Their (recent)additional capacity is in-part testament to that. Regards

I read that the Directors have lathered themselves with Options - pity they don't have time to steer the Company at this critical time ( ie since about the beginning of 2004), with many having supported them close to 1, these creatures have set the Option price below 1/3rd of this - must make the City look pretty stupid - let's hope they are forgiven in the next couple of years.

Isn't it about time Options were outlawed, unless the suggestion is "from the floor" at an agm when a well-loved director is retiring on low-pay?
Grr!

Ok, you have talked me into it. Bought a few today.

Shares Mag wrote this article last year. They were evidently too optimistic at that time, but how much has really changed. That last RNS said their forward order book had doubled, so where do we go from here? Maybe SM will follow up on last years arcticle. Interesting times ahead.


Shares Magazine-Plays of the Week 5/6/03
Cobra Bio-Manufacturing (AIM:CBF) - 98p Buy by: Timon Day Investors looking for plays on vaccines for AIDS and other virulent viruses can take a punt on Cobra. Now looks a good time as investor interest in the bombed-out biotech sector is rapidly reviving with shares such as Oxford Biomedica (OXB) doubling since March.
Demerged from ML Laboratories a year ago at 103p, the shares are now nearly back to where they were and optimists say they could go much, much higher if one of their customers succeeds in developing an AIDS vaccine.
The US says it will spend 5 billion fighting AIDS in Africa and Bill Gates is spending around $500 million through his International Aids Vaccines Institute (IAVI). Cobra made IAVIs anti-AIDS vaccine for the Phase 2 trials. If positive, a Phase 3 trial will start next year which could lead to the drug winning FDA approval in a couple of years time.
Cobra currently only makes small batches of drugs for Phase 1 and 2 trials, but could expand capacity or contract out manufacture. Big drug companies like Cobras leading DNA and virus products manufacturing technology.
IAVI is understood to have granted Cobra a royalty on sales of its AIDS vaccine. If the vaccine goes on sale, Cobra will reap substantial profits.
The same is true for other customers such as the South African AIDS Vaccine Initiative (SAAVI) and Mayne Pharma, an Australian company, with which a long-term manufacturing agreement was signed six months ago to produce a novel genetically engineered virus.
Last November, Cobra opened a US sales office in Chicago. The US accounts for more than 70% of the world market for biopharmaceuticals. Progress is encouraging with US orders of $2.2 million to date compared with $900,000 for the whole of the previous year.
The recent sale of 6.5 million shares at 80p was eight times over-subscribed and the net proceeds of 4.7 million will be used to double capacity through the purchase of a 15,000 manufacturing facility in Oxford. Happily, parent ML has slashed its stake from 46% to just 5%, leaving its offspring to grow unfettered.
Cobra boasts several high-calibre institutional investors led by Fidelity Investments with just under 10%, Standard Life with almost 8% and Legg Mason with almost 7%. The best thing about Cobra is that its basic drug making business is expected to see profits of 1 million this year soaring to 1.6 million next year and 3 million to September 2005 dropping the untaxed PE to 6. Royalties and technology transfer payments, if a vaccine goes on sale, are the icing on the cake which could boost profits several times. Zuzanna Day, wife of the author, owns shares in Cobra.
Shares Summary Cobra shares are a lower-risk punt in the biotech sector. The business plan is ahead of schedule, ML is history and AIDS vaccines promise mega profit potential. Business: Biopharmaceutical products manufacturer Vital stats: Market capitalisation: 19m Historic PE Sep to 02: losses Prospective PE to Sep 03: 18 Prospective PE to Sep 04: 12 No dividend

AFX 7/10/04


LONDON (AFX) - Cobra Bio-Manufacturing PLC said it sees its year to September loss 'at the bottom end of market forecasts'.

In a trading statement, the biopharmaceutival manufacturing company said its second half sales were 30 pct higher than its first half sales.

'Losses for the year are anticipated to be at the bottom end of market forecasts, however the company's cash resources are well in excess of forecasts as a result of balancing costs and demand,' it said.

Cobra said its confirmed forward order book for the current half year is more than double the position at this time last year. Confirmed orders from North America are improving.

'There is still much ground to be made up against previous expectations for the company but with the current increase in contracted business, the year to September 2005 should see Cobra regaining momentum,' the group said.

email: newsdesk@afxnews.com

jm/

Hawick if your still around could you put some charts in the header, ta

Max online buy via Barclays has just dropped to 7.5K. This was 60K a while ago. A big buyer in the background perhaps or MMs just playing games?

Last years results were released on 2 December. With a doubled order book since then, this stock is looking cheap as chips.

Cobra Bio-Manufacturing PLC
02 December 2003

For Immediate Release 2 December 2003

Cobra Biomanufacturing Plc
Preliminary Results
for the year ended 30 September 2003

Cobra Biomanufacturing Plc, the international manufacturer of
biopharmaceuticals, today announces its preliminary results for the twelve
months ended 30 September 2003.

Highlights

Operational:
June 2003 Acquisition of additional biological manufacturing capacity
June 2003 Placing and open offer raised 5.2m before expenses
Major progress in the US during 2003 revenue up 158%
24 global customers, 27 programmes ongoing

Financial:
Manufacturing revenue up 137% to 6.0 million (2002: 2.5 million)
Profit before tax 0.8 million (2002: 0.9 million loss)
Profit after tax 1.0 million (2002: 0.1 million profit)
EPS up 590% to 6.9 pence (2002: 1.0 pence)
Increase in gross margin to 57% (2002: 34%)
Cash at bank 7.3 million (2002: 2.6 million)

Commenting on the results, Peter Fothergill, Executive Chairman said:
'We are extremely pleased with the excellent progress Cobra has made throughout
the year. The placing in June 2003 was well over subscribed and we look forward
to the additional facilities coming on-line in 2004. Together with the increase
in repeat business from existing clients and our strong headway in the US
market, 2004 promises to be an exciting year for Cobra.

It will be interesting to see how the next set of results compare to last years figures.

Financial:
Manufacturing revenue up 137% to 6.0 million (2002: 2.5 million)
Profit before tax 0.8 million (2002: 0.9 million loss)
Profit after tax 1.0 million (2002: 0.1 million profit)
EPS up 590% to 6.9 pence (2002: 1.0 pence)
Increase in gross margin to 57% (2002: 34%)
Cash at bank 7.3 million (2002: 2.6 million)

Nice tick up today. Results are due in a couple of weeks. Net assets are shown in last year's accounts as 10,549,007 million, equivalent to 58.5p per share. This together with doubled turnover makes this stock worth every penny of today's price

Another tick up. Hold tight and enjoy the ride!

From another BB concerning a recent broker note from Durlachers:

gist of Durlachers note...

CBF were one of Durlachers tips for 2004 with a price of 1.38!!
They mention that since the profit warnings of earlier this year, that many institutions have decreased their holdings, however Fidelity have gone against the grain and added over this period. They estimate net cash will be approx 2.5 million come the results.

What is most interesting is that they confirm that whereas previously CBF based/relied upon forward revenues on contracts/orders that weren't confirmed, they have now changed their policy to only include those orders that are. Hence the confirmed order book (mentioned from the trading update) for the current half year is exactly that - CONFIRMED! And, as we know, it is already double that of the same period last year...

Durlacher advise that clients should continue to hold for recovery...

Another big rise today. I can almost feel the G Forces

Top % Gainers
# EPIC Name Price Chg %

11 CBF Cobra Bio-man. Ord 10p 43.5 4.0 10.13

Top % Gainers
# EPIC Name Price Chg %

4 CBF Cobra Bio-man. Ord 10p 46.5 7.0 17.72