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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

cynic - 21 Feb 2007 19:35 - 311 of 1564

not sure about major, but am currently short of FTSE with a modest target of 6285, tho may extend that if feels right ..... seemingly perversely perhaps, am long Dow.

overall, still feel FTSE is heading north, but decent correction certainly overdue

Strawbs - 21 Feb 2007 19:59 - 312 of 1564

Not sure if my candlestick analysis is up to scratch yet, but I keep seeing bearish indicators everywhere. I'm starting to wonder if last years "mini correction" was just a dry run, and didn't scare people enough to follow through, because fundamentally people still seemed rather "bullish". I'm wondering if almost a year on, another correction might just turn into a full on down trend, which is why I was curious how people felt at the moment. Oh well. Guess I'll be liquidating the portfolio again. :-) Think you should do OK with the FTSE short. I'd probably go the same way with the DOW (short), but I don't really look at the American market, so maybe your right.


IMHO...

Strawbs

Strawbs - 27 Feb 2007 09:33 - 313 of 1564

That'll be the sell off I was waiting for then..... :-)

Strawbs.

cynic - 27 Feb 2007 09:44 - 314 of 1564

lovely wasn't it! .... was nicely short and have just closed that position .... whether one now buys at this level is another matter

Strawbs - 27 Feb 2007 09:49 - 315 of 1564

Been liquidating some of the portfolio today. Think I'll sit on the sidelines again for a while. I hope the financial news out of the States later is OK, otherwise I can see this sell off accelerating....... Think I need to have a look at spreads/cfd's again. :-)

In my opinion, do your own research..... etc.

Strawbs.

cynic - 27 Feb 2007 10:08 - 316 of 1564

have taken plenty off the table ...... like you, will watch, but actually think Dow mor likley to recover than fall, though there may still be say 150 points to go there before a solid bounce

Strawbs - 27 Feb 2007 10:36 - 317 of 1564

Totally liquid again now. My worry is another leverage driven slide again like last year. Things could get very messy if everyone heads for the door at the same time. Think the dow and the next trading session in asia will set the direction.

In my opinion, do your own research.

Strawbs.

s040371giles - 27 Feb 2007 14:19 - 318 of 1564

I've taken some profits here - more comfortable watching this from the sidelines. Kept open some positions still showing (relative) strength, but ready to pull the plug on any weakness. Will keep the powder dry for another day.

Steve

Strawbs - 27 Feb 2007 14:28 - 319 of 1564

Sounds sensible. Looks pretty messy out there at the moment.

If this is a leverage led slide it'll get worse the lower it goes. The sell off in China has probably caused some margin calls to kick in. That means assets elsewhere are probably being sold to cover those calls, which means margin calls for others, more selling, hedging with shorts, more margin calls, and so the spiral continues until enough people go bust and things stabalise.......Then if the Yen carry trade starts unwinding too........Yuk.

In my opinion, do your own research, etc.....

Strawbs.

s040371giles - 27 Feb 2007 14:48 - 320 of 1564

All very reminiscent of last year with the miners leading the way. Can always buy back in another day, when Mr Market regains his equilibrium.

Steve

Strawbs - 27 Feb 2007 20:02 - 321 of 1564

Dow -540 (at the moment).......ouch, that's gonna hurt.

Strawbs.

cynic - 27 Feb 2007 20:05 - 322 of 1564

hi strawbs ..... unfortunatley did not think to put a stop loss on my Dow long, as that would have been well below opening level .... never mind; have cut my losses there and opened a long as prob overdone.... still well up on year, so should not complain.

tomorrow will be bedlam

Strawbs - 27 Feb 2007 20:13 - 323 of 1564

Yikes! Take care out there. I think this could cause some serious margin calls overnight and in the morning, especially if the Dow closes down over 500.......

In my opinion......

Strawbs

cynic - 27 Feb 2007 20:19 - 324 of 1564

unbelievable ... it's all over the f'ing shop, but am still glad i closed my pos on Dow as could have kept heading south will almost certainly close FTSE long tonight too.

cynic - 27 Feb 2007 20:28 - 325 of 1564

closed it .... made back a crumb ... better than nowt

s040371giles - 27 Feb 2007 20:37 - 326 of 1564

I was reading Peter Lynch's book the other night - the opening chapter was talking about the '87 crash - is this the biggest one day fall since then? (I'm excluding 9/11 from this)

Steve

s040371giles - 27 Feb 2007 20:48 - 327 of 1564

Found the answer to my own question:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed with a loss of 500 points or more only five times in its history, according to data from Dow Jones Indexes. The biggest one-day point drop of 684.8 points took place on Sept. 17, 2001. The index fell 618 points on April 14, 2000 and 554 points on Oct. 27, 1997. It shed 512.6 points on Aug 31, 1998 and 508 points on Oct. 19, 1987. At last check on Tuesday, the index has fallen 379 points at 12,253. At one point, it was down 546 points shortly after 3 p.m. With a current loss of 3%, however, the Dow Jones Industrial Average won't even crack the top 20 in terms of one-day percentage losses. The 20th worst percentage loss for the index took place on Jan. 8, 1988 when it fell 6.85% or 141 points.

cynic - 27 Feb 2007 21:06 - 328 of 1564

only down about 360 in the end i think, but FTSE forecast to open down 120, so goodness knows what will happen then

hlyeo98 - 27 Feb 2007 21:14 - 329 of 1564

It means a very good day to BUY into BARGAINS!

cynic - 27 Feb 2007 21:16 - 330 of 1564

it means a perfect day to do nothing as there are no guarantees that tomorrow will not also be a bad day - i.e. even worse than at opening
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