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20p target price from Hoodless.

http://www.hoodlessbrennan.com/EasysiteWeb/getresource.axd?AssetID=21276&type=Full&servicetype=Attachment


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What a target currently around 5p!

It should make sense that if G-1 (Gavignano well) found reservoir formation but deep, and A-1 (Anagni) found that reservoir formation but higher up and with traces of live oil, then F-1 (Fontana) being the highest point of the formation should be where the oil is now located.

That would not only prove F-1 but also the potential for a "string of pearls" theory across this area.

Which is of course following G-1 and A-1, why F-1 is now being drilled to test the area for the presence of the reservoir formation and also whether it has oil in it.


Still, one should discount this to nothing and expect F-1 to fail, however, one also must take into account that should oil be found it will likely be commercial in terms of recovery potential and also will have a profound impact on the potential of the Frosinone area.

The SP presently allows nothing for F-1 or Frosinone (and so it should be discounting down to nothing on expected failure), and therefore there is considerable upside to get priced in should there be an oil find.

I certainly wouldn't count ny chickens as far as F-1 is concerned,could go below 4p if unsuccessful?
cyril

Couple of things, firstly from a post elsewhere we have more details of what the work plan is for PEN-104AA in January.


""""""Handykart - 18 Dec'09 - 00:08 - 10934 of 10934

All,thought this might be of interest, as you were talking about remedial work on Pen-104AA.I sent an e.mail to the company last week.Last part of the reply was

" In short, we now need to clear out the well and to do this we are sourcing a small bore velocity string that we can install in the well and blow it down with nitrogen. There are some restrictions with equipment, particularly one of the two coiled tubing units in HU is u/s and so it will be January before we can proceed.""""""

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Secondly a bit of of background info on "Tight Gas" and how many in the industry believe "non conventional" tight gas will become the new "conventional".

http://www.arabianoilandgas.com/article-6646-tight-times/1/

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Relative as Slovenia has "tight" deep gas.

And do not forget everyone, get your 2010 stock picking entries in. Click the link and then click on "Entry Form".

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/index.htm


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Ascent to become the "tight gas" exploration company ? Does seem that AST will now embark on tight gas plays as exploration with the back up of production from conventional gas plays.

PEN and PAN are the conventional gas production.

Slovenia and and Hungary (Lovaszi and Ujfalyu) are the "tight gas" exploration.


Upside is certainly there, as Jeremy says "300Bcf "recoverable" potential" in the area thats just been 3D'd. On going 3D in the other area in Slovenia and also 3D to be done on the Lovaszi and Ujfalyu field in Hungary across the border. Lovaszi and Ujfalyu are very prospective in terms of tight gas potential, and so AST could be looking at 500Bcf recoverable when all the 3D is done and all the data analyzed.

You can see why the temptation is there to go for it, as the potential recoverable figure is so large, and on top of that the Slovenian government is very supportive of getting gas flowing there.

MOL has experience in many area's with tight gas, and they have had some success (Dereckse basin) and some failures/inconclusive, but obviously their experience level is increasing all the time. Slovenia of course MOL is not part of the team, however at Lovaszi and Ujfalyu they are.

For those who try to smear tight gas as "all the same", MOL openly say they have 5 tight gas potential area's in Hungary, and each one is entirely different in terms of not only prospectivity, but how to work on each one as well. Therefore whilst some people point to say the Mako Trough and quote trouble, that is just one area and totally different to the others in many ways.

Anyway, "tight gas" and other presently "non-conventional" plays will become the new "conventional" in the coming years, and AST is going to be one of those companies next year that attempts to move this forward.

Upside of 500Bcf recoverable on the licenses they own ???? Certainly worth trying especially as for 2 years at least Hungary conventional gas at PEN and PAN will be flowing and keeping the tills turning over.

Interesting RNS, its interesting because, now we have it confirmed the highly permeable formation is present up dip (some 300 metres higher than at Aggers 1.7km away) at Fontana-1.

As Jeremy says ".......the potential upside from Fontana-1 still remains."

Given the seismic is proved by work so far and the formation is there, its only now a question of does it contain oil or not.

Simple as that, and most interesting and the redrill results in January will now come down to simply oil or not.

I had discounted F-1 as nothing, and there is nothing in the price for it, but I might have to add some value to it now, for the potential is very much there for a surprise.

On line :

Max Buy is 25K at full 5p

Max Sell is 1 million at 4.77p



There is strong demand for the shares.

Good to see the SP holding up and also blue,seems that a negative was factored in? As far as,is oil there or not,well isn't that what drilling is all about and this will be the 3rd attempt? Maybe in the future this company will live up to its promise but presently it seems to trip up very easily.As far as tight gas,tech somewhere in the future(long way?),not exactly what i want to hear? This is a volitile stock,ifeal for the traders,buy now and wait for 6p+ is my thoughts.

The stock challenge is a little early,waiting to see all news upto year end before finalising my decision. I've had better results on the monthly comp.
having won twice and finishing 2nd a few months ago.
cyril
ps my wife is beating me hands down on the 2009 comp,under the name of mosmyname. lol

I see while i waffled the SP has shot up,kicking myself for not getting in 1st thing ehich i toyed with.
cyril

The TMF 2010 share picking comp is now open for entries.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=11785507&sort=whole


AST is taken already, so tough luck nobody else can have it ;)

December EGM Presentation (PDF)

http://www.ascentresources.co.uk/investor_information/Ascent_Resources_EGMPresentation14122009.pdf

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From Leni (LGO) yesterday :

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200912231409406419E

.....Hungary

The Penzlek Gasfield (7.27% LGO) in eastern Hungary through LGO's 7.27% ownership of PetroHungaria Kft is currently shut-in pending completion of Pen-104aa testing and Pen-105 pipeline construction.

Pen-105 which was completed in September 2009 tested at a flowrate of over 78,000 m3 of gas per day (2.75 mmscfd) from a nine metre interval at the top of the Miocene volcaniclastic section. This well is now shut-in awaiting the construction of the pipeline connection to the main export pipeline.

Pen-104aa tested a Miocene volcaniclastic reservoir section identified by open-hole well logs and mud log shows to be potentially gas bearing. Pending further evaluation of the preliminary test results, it is anticipated testing operations will continue when further specialist equipment can be mobilised in January.

The drilling permits for the Pen-101 and Pen-106 wells have been issued and site construction will commence shortly. The drilling rig is expected to be mobilized to the location late in January 2010.

The ZalaGasCo joint venture (14.54% LGO) reported no activity during the period.........


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Done the write up for the TMF competition 2010, link below for reference.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=11794064


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Listen to JE in an interview :


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/11821/jeremy-eng-of-ascent-resources-talks-about-spudding-drilling-and-production-in-hungary-italy-and-slovenia-11821.html


Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Jeremy Eng of Ascent Resources talks about spudding, drilling and production in Hungary, Italy and Slovenia

Jeremy Eng, MD of Ascent Resources, talks about spudding two wells, a production re-start, possible production and drilling another well (in Hungary), well re-drill results (in Italy), and one 3D seismic survey started, one completed, and one processed rea.........

So it looks like SEAG and AST are now looking for multiple smaller parties to take a piece of the Hermrigen-2 drill, as opposed to one major one.


Looks like they think March 2010 we might have news on this, or does be mean drilling to start in March 2010 ?

As he is the SEAG man, you have to take his views seriously.


http://www.derbund.ch/bern/Erdgasbohrung-im-Berner-Seeland-verzoegert-sich-nochmals-um-ein-Jahr/story/16244360

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Of course, the reason for wanting to attempt to open up the Swiss potential is that, well, its rather large.

Over 500 Bcf of potential. Even the SEAG man as 15 Billion Cubic Metres, which is well over 500 Bcf.

The license area itself has some serious figures, up to 578 Bcf recoverable as per the farm in document which is on the following link.

http://www.envoi.co.uk/P154bAscent(Switzerland)EnvoiIntroFlyer.pdf

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