I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

British Airways is set to resume services on Tuesday to Kuwait following the suspension of flights last month.

Initially BA will operate three times a week from London to Kuwait via Larnaca in Cyprus rather than once a day direct.

Flights between London and Kuwait were suspended on March 19 after the Foreign Office advised against all travel to Kuwait.

BA's customer service and operations director Mike Street said "We remain firmly committed to resuming our full flight schedule between the UK and the Gulf region as soon as possible. The re-introduction of services to Kuwait is an important step towards achieving this.

"We will only fly to a destination if we are satisfied totally it is safe."

Over Easter, BA said it was in talks with the UK Government about resuming scheduled services to Baghdad. The airline's London-Iraq service was suspended in 1990.

Sir Richard Branson's airline Virgin Atlantic has also expressed interest in flying to the Iraqi capital.


Story filed: 14:15 Tuesday 22nd April 2003

Ainsoph,

I see BA have today reduced the number of flights to HK, down to 1 per day.

Surely SARS is going to hit ALL airlines, including BA very badly indeed?

The numbers are growing, and the Chinese are now admitting they hid patients during the recent WHO visit, driving some around in ambulances whilst officials were in the hospital!

If the number of SARS infected people grows into the expected epidemic, air travel, and in particular business air travel, will be cut back substantially, and during the important summer season too!

I would only be short in any airline at the moment.

Andy.

Inclined to agree with you short term Andy - my current holding is minimal but looking to buy a few back as soon as it's sorted. I see these dips as buying/trading opportunities

Always seems to be a reason not to buy airlines but people will still fly and holiday traffic will change destinations. Baghdad will be busy as soon as the fighting actually stops (business + politicians + armed forces)



ains

108P still my target to buy, won`t be long now before SARS really bites its ` tail.

PARIS (AFX) - A group of air passengers who were held hostage as human
shields by Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein before the 1991 Gulf war went to court
today to claim damages against British Airways PLC.
A Paris court is to rule on June 26 whether BA was partly responsible for
the passengers' ordeal.
Hundreds of westerners, including everyone on a BA flight from London bound
for Malaysia, were captured while in Kuwait when Saddam invaded in August 1990
and were deported to Iraq.
The BA passengers claim that their flight, which stopped in Kuwait to
refuel, had airlifted some thirty British special forces (SAS) troops into the
country.
"All possible risks were taken for this Trojan horse for the British
government," the claimants' lawyer, Dominique Menard, told the court today.
BA's lawyer, Fernand Garrault, stressed Britain had denied this version of
events.
In 1995, a Paris court ruled in favour of a group of French people who were
among the hostages, ordering BA to pay out fines of several hundred thousand
euros for exposing them to unnecessary danger.
The hostages' relatives were also paid compensation under the ruling, which
was upheld by France's highest appeal court.
Now the carrier faces legal action from a separate group of 134 people
seeking financial compensation -- seven former passengers and their relatives.
Flight BA 149, travelling between London and Kuala-Lumpur, had stopped in
Kuwait City to refuel just a few hours after the start of the Iraqi invasion.
Iraqi forces were bombing the runway at the time and all the passengers were
taken prisoner.
They were taken to Baghdad and were for months used as human shields at
possible bomb targets in Iraq, including power stations, oil refineries and
military sites. Many fell sick with dysentery and cholera.
They were released in waves, with the last captives, most of them British
and US nationals, freed in December 1990.
BA's lawyer Garrault said the court "made a mistake" in 1995 when it ruled
in favour of the first group of passengers. He has vowed to appeal if BA is
found guilty again this time.
"The invasion of Kuwait was unpredictable but it was even more unpredictable
that Iraq would take civilians hostage and use them as human shields," he said.
He pointed out that BA had successfully appealed to Britain's upper house of
parliament -- the House of Lords -- against claims filed by passengers in
England and Scotland, and that a court case in the US was simply dismissed.
cb/ec/gil/cw

Coming down nicely each day, only a further 10p to fall and i`m in.

Only 8p to go then!!!

Clearly helps BA in difficult times



'Use it or lose it' threat suspended as world's biggest carrier clinches last-minute rescue

Andrew Clark and David Teather in New York
Saturday April 26, 2003
The Guardian

The European commission lent a helping hand to ailing airlines yesterday by waiving strict rules governing the use of airport slots, because of the impact

ADVERTISEMENT

of Sars and the war in Iraq.
Following a meeting of transport ministers, the commission announced it was temporarily dropping "use it or lose it" requirements which strip carriers of sought-after slots unless they use them 80% of the time.

But the change, which applies until October, angered EasyJet, which has been trying to get its hands on more landing rights at congested destinations.

An EasyJet spokesman said: "In good times, there's no way British Airways or Lufthansa are ever going to give up these slots. The only time they could be forced to allow new competitors in is during times of crisis."

The global airline industry body Iata has estimated that the industry stands to lose $8bn (5bn) this year as passengers take fright at disease, terrorism and economic uncertainty.

Worst hit recently has been Hong Kong, where Sars has prompted a 65% collapse in passenger numbers. In an attempt to stem the decline, Hong Kong's airport authority yesterday slashed its parking fees for airlines by 75% and allowed carriers to defer payments by three months.

American Airlines, the world's largest carrier appeared to have averted imminent bankruptcy last night after the three main unions agreed to fresh pay-cut deals.

The negotiations were sealed after the resignation of chief executive Don Carty late on Thursday night. Mr Carty had provoked fury among the unions after they learned of a lucrative executive compensation plan put in place shortly after agreeing to $1.8bn in cuts and job losses to keep the airline in business.

The hapless Mr Carty attempted to mend relations with the workers but it was too late to save his own job.

The union representing the airline's flight attendants agreed a sweetened offer at the eleventh hour last night. The pilots and ground workers had earlier approved the new deal, which improves potential bonuses for employees and shortens the length of the concessions by one year to five years.

Gerard Arpey, the company's president, will replace Mr Carty as chief executive. Mr Arpey, 44, has spent his entire career at American, starting out as a financial analyst in 1982.

Board member Edward Brennan will take over as chairman, a job Mr Carty had also occupied.

Fellow struggler Air Canada revealed in court documents yesterday that it was losing C$3m (1.3m) a day, with its C$450m of cash reserves steadily dwindling.

Air Canada filed for protection against its creditors three weeks ago. Its main hub is Toronto, which the World Health Organisation has advised travellers to avoid, because of the threat of Sars.

108P NEXT WEEK.

PS
fly to the Maldives with Emirates and get upgraded free to buSiness class, we BAY shareholders have been asking for this perk for years, a free upgrade i.e.
Shareholder loyalty,? hah.

Maybe one should add up to a half unit then??

ROTFLMAO @KDC

I reckon these are a trading share these days and not a long term buy and hold..best to buy around 105p and make 10% at the most..

Yes ... it's mostly a trading share at this time and that's why we are here .....

Interesting ads today on 'two free tickets - if you sleep with us'


ains

I said ten days ago buy at 108p, and thats coming next week, get onto it.

Airlines' adverts flag dirty tricks war
James Rossiter, Evening Standard
28 April 2003

DOGFIGHT between budget airline operators Ryanair and easyJet marks the beginning of a much broader dirty tricks advertising war. Legal experts in the City said the boundaries are being tested by a surge in the number and range of companies eager to attack their competitors through their advertising.


Rupert Casey, a media lawyer at City firm Macfarlanes, has seen how comparative advertising, once largely the favoured battle tactic of DIY businesses and soap sellers, has now become almost commonplace for any sector which sells direct to the consumer.


He said: 'I am taking many more calls from a range of clients asking what they can get away with and then running with a campaign even if they are running a strong risk of technically infringing someone's trademark. If it's a short newspaper campaign, that may be worth the risk as injunctions are just going to be too late.'


The budget airlines, Casey added, have become just like fast-moving consumer goods industries - the Unilever and Procter & Gamble of the airline industry. 'Getting bums on seats fast is the aim,' he said.


Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary risked the wrath of easyJet's Ray Webster last week with a series of advertisements in The Times to promote Ryanair's latest sales offers. The first ran with a slogan 'A load of old bullocks', attacking easyJet's website claim that it had the cheapest flights to Spain. Another exclaimed: 'Liar, liar, pants on fire.'


Before 1997, anyone who took out comparative advertising in this country risked infringing someone else's trademark by using their rival's product logos in their advert, whether or not the comparison was fair. A European directive changed that, and now a business can only be sued if the comparison is not 'a genuine like-for-like comparison', said Casey.


Sellers using conventional media promotions - TV, radio and print - still have their adverts vetted by the Advertising Standards Authority, a media self regulator. In response, retailers are turning to more so-called 'ambient' sales media - fliers and posters - which are the subject of much less regulation.


Associated Newspapers Ltd.

ainsoph - 09 Feb'03 - 12:44


I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.
***********************************

The dirty tricks have started then!!!!!!!!!!

Market report: Monday 14.00
Michael Clark, Evening Standard
28 April 2003

THE Sars epidemic could spell the end for some of the best-known national airlines if the virus takes hold in Europe. That was the stark warning today from US securities house Goldman Sachs as it downgraded the European airlines sector to cautious.



It says it could be 'game over' for some flag carriers. There are clear signs of them heading the way of the US majors with falling revenues and rising costs. The spread of the virus could tip some over the edge, it warns. 'Even if it doesn't, anaemic economic growth will not paper over the industry's structural problems,' warned one of its analysts. Malaysian Airlines estimates Sars has already cost it 22m in lost revenue.



If some airlines fold, it could pave the way for carriers such as Ryanair, down 10p at 419p, and British Airways, up 2 1/2p to 119p, to grab market share. Goldman continues to rate Ryanair outperform along with BA, which is reckoned to be the long-term winner in any flag carrier restructuring within the industry.






Goldman has downgraded its earnings forecast for Deutsche Lufthansa, SAS and Royal KLM Dutch Airlines. It has also lowered BA from 4.27p to 2.73p a share and predicts an overall loss of 7.98p a share in 2004.



Share prices generally traded in narrow limits, unable to glean any inspiration from Wall Street after the Dow tumbled 134 points on Friday. In thin trading, the FTSE 100 index rose 30.4 to 3900.6 at the start of a busy week in terms of economic news and company trading results.

shares going well today with good news filtering throgh and out-performing market




Andrew Clark
Monday April 28, 2003
The Guardian

British Airways is imposing a fresh round of cuts on its loss-making regional subsidiary, CitiExpress, which could include withdrawing services from several
domestic airports.
At an internal briefing last week, CitiExpress's managing director, David Evans, told staff he planned to cut 120 jobs in an attempt to squeeze out 20m of annual savings.

A "fleet and network" review is due to report back next month. Insiders believe this could recommend pulling out of more airports, following BA's recent withdrawal from Cardiff and Leeds Bradford.

Sources at the airline say that the Isle of Man is among the more vulnerable destinations. Plymouth and Newquay are under the microscope because they use Dash-8 aircraft, which BA is keen to get rid of. Services from Manchester and Birmingham airports might be also reduced.

Mr Evans declined to discuss the likely outcome of the review, saying he was "ruling nothing in and nothing out".

He said business conditions had remained tough since a first round of cuts was announced in December: "This is all part of the ongoing busi ness planning process. We'd all acknowledge that things remain very challenging - the focus on getting the business into shape remains."

A decision to withdraw from any regional airport is likely to bring political protests. Welsh politicians have expressed dismay at BA's recent cessation of services to Cardiff, attacking the airline's suggestion that travellers are able to use Bristol airport as an alternative.

Job losses at CitiExpress will largely hit support staff rather than pilots or cabin crew. The airline is looking for a 5% increase in productivity and an operating margin of 8%, urging staff to "work harder and work smarter".

The restructuring has contributed to tensions between managers and unions at CitiExpress, and BA's chief executive, Rod Eddington, met union representatives at the regional operator last week in an attempt to soothe their fears.

He agreed to appoint a third-party consultant to mediate between CitiExpress managers and the pilots' union, Balpa, which is dismayed at the level of uncertainty and job insecurity at the business.

ainsoph - 09 Feb'03 - 12:44


I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.
***********************************

The dirty tricks have started then!!!!!!!!!!,
would you really like to put your bum on a seat after KDC,

UUUUGGHHH!!!!!

Out-performing the market today @ 124p


29 Apr 2003 11:57 BST

Airlines say SARS impact now bigger than war

LONDON (Reuters) - Europe's biggest airlines are now being hit harder by the deadly SARS virus in Asia than on war-hit Middle Eastern routes, weekly traffic data has shown.
Airlines around the world have cancelled flights near Iraq in the past six weeks, but cuts are now mounting on Asian routes while some service to the Middle East resumes.

Demand for seats to the Far East and Australasia plunged 28 percent from year-ago levels in the week ending April 20, the Brussels-based Association of European Airlines said in a statement.

That was more than the 24-percent fall on routes to the Middle East, underscoring the rising impact on airlines from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which has been blamed for 331 deaths, more than a third of them in China.

In March, Middle East routes were down 34 percent versus just seven percent for Asian routes.

SARS has sparked World Health Organisation travel warnings on Toronto, Hong Kong and other parts of China, hitting carriers well beyond the affected regions as airlines in the United States and Europe also count on business and tourist traveller revenues from Asian routes and flights to Canada's financial capital.

Four of 10 seats are flying empty for European carriers serving Asia, the AEA said.

March traffic for Europe's largest carriers fell 4.5 percent, hit by war in Iraq and SARS, but the fall was cushioned as year-ago traffic was also weak.

"Hostilities began on the 20th of the month, although the market had been weakening before that date, in evident anticipation of the conflict," it said.

The 30-member AEA represents about 90 percent of scheduled flights in Europe. It includes top carriers British Airways BAY.L and Air France AIRF.PA but not low-fare airlines Ryanair RYA.I or easyJet EZJ.L .

flown with BAY a couple of times in the past few months. ok but no more. it's all about price and maintaining slots/good reliability for their short haul/euro business now. i dont think the brand's worth much