< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

IMO...surprised AFR has not asked to have its shares suspended, given the tanking of the SP.

A sad day for what was a 'star' company, with great potential.

Whoever buys AFR will still have to dig the oil out of the ground at a cost effective price per barrel, which looks to be above $55. However Oil$ continues to fall below $45; wells to be shut in and future exploration cancelled.

However expecting other OPEC / non-OPEC countries to start cutting back production to raise $Oil price - Russia / Iran / Nigeria / Venezuela. The $Oil price can only drop so far for these countries whose GDP is highly linked to $oil p/brl. Some retaliation is inevitable, IMO Global tension of oil production / supply routes will come into focus in some way, shape or form.

Obama during his Saudi Arabia visit has already emphasized the requirement to develop 'stronger relations' with Saudi Government to maintain greater security in the region.

DYOR

HAb

Not good I have to say....what else.....

HAb

Obama during his Saudi Arabia visit has already emphasized the requirement to develop 'stronger relations' with Saudi Government to maintain greater security in the region.

That's funny if it wasn't so tragic , America and Saudi are two of the main country's who
have helped to inflame the madness that is the Middle East

Not nearly as funny as Tony Blair being Peace Envoy to the middle east ,now that really was a smack in the mouth for the region .

Incredible down 72% on the day.

From Prmoldoaks on another board regards Afren

I have to admit this company and its management has been incredibly complacent, and its reporting and management is unbelievable.

I am fairly well connected generally and do have some contacts on the ground and within the industry, including some of the financial institutions.

Afren's statements recently have been poorly drafted and issued without due regard to damage limitation, some would suspect a deliberate attempt to devalue the SP.

Working with the numbers on the balance sheet, the debt and forward projections we can work our own conclusions which are simply mathematical.

My synopsis yesterday is still VERY ACCURATE and the numbers into days RNS reinforces that, including $230m in cash.

Afren is like most people, they have a certain amount of cash but getting their hands on it is sometimes difficult, and takes time to extract from various sources, its easy to write it down on the balance sheet.

Afren has a large proportion of that cash in the Afren/Oriental account for the Ebok development, you may like to call this a float, each partner pays out a share at given times but always keep a float.

It has the Cash to easily pay $50m & $12m but that takes it out of its normal operating zones, could be done, but takes time and they would not really want to leave the Ebok float low.

So alternatives are to delay payments and restructure if possible.

The cash flow required now is due to the increase in capex to bring more wells on line and that in tern will increase cashflow and ramp up production.

Afren are now cutting discretionary capex and will delay non producing asset expenditure, Barda Rash is an example of this.

(However Barder Rush have now completed the BR5 well and is testing so I believe and my contacts suggest the results here are better than thought so maybe some positive news flow from that afterall, remember Afren still has a 20% share of Hunt oils Kurdistan Asset that have recently committed to more production wells so I'm told)

I think the key here now is the restructure of debt, if this can be done, and probably through the addition of an increased loan facility or 3rd party farm in, Afren could ramp up production to pay back this facility fairly quickly given the major Tax breaks Afren currently receives.

Remember this effects Oriental Energy big time so its not just Afren piling on the pressure to bond holders, bankers etc.

The sp is ridiculous and if a refinancing deal can be struck (just the same as Enquest) things could turn very quickly.

Our saviour will be either a decent bid from Seplat or a supportive restructure short term, remember other debt is serviceable by the hedged oil.

There are some positives to hang onto, and I don't think this is a dead dog yet.

And don't count out Nigerian Bank funding coming in ;-)

The £1.20 price spouted was a generalisation amongst institutional investors what they consider to be an acceptable bid prior to the Kurdistan news.

DYOR as we always say, But Afren's Assets and production upgrades are not worth didly squat not to mention cashflow, they can get out of this with a little help from thier friends and a good CEO

tuppence?

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2929140/Afren-heading-judgement-day-investors-weigh-200m-cash-call.html

less?

28 Jan Westhouse... 2.00 Sell
27 Jan Westhouse... 90.00 Neutral
----------------

How clever are these brokers !

That's so funny..

stop loss at 2p then

In freefall.......upwards!

lol harry

lol Harry.

No offense intended Mitzy! Just thought I would beat you to it!

You have to laugh Harry.

yes...but why..... am I ...choking....

easy to know why ..... the nimble bears darting in and out

another disposal
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/tr-1--notification-of-major-interest-in-shares/201501281255123926D/

this morning was just to let iis out ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2929140/Afren-heading-judgement-day-investors-weigh-200m-cash-call.html