< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Incredible down 72% on the day.

From Prmoldoaks on another board regards Afren

I have to admit this company and its management has been incredibly complacent, and its reporting and management is unbelievable.

I am fairly well connected generally and do have some contacts on the ground and within the industry, including some of the financial institutions.

Afren's statements recently have been poorly drafted and issued without due regard to damage limitation, some would suspect a deliberate attempt to devalue the SP.

Working with the numbers on the balance sheet, the debt and forward projections we can work our own conclusions which are simply mathematical.

My synopsis yesterday is still VERY ACCURATE and the numbers into days RNS reinforces that, including $230m in cash.

Afren is like most people, they have a certain amount of cash but getting their hands on it is sometimes difficult, and takes time to extract from various sources, its easy to write it down on the balance sheet.

Afren has a large proportion of that cash in the Afren/Oriental account for the Ebok development, you may like to call this a float, each partner pays out a share at given times but always keep a float.

It has the Cash to easily pay $50m & $12m but that takes it out of its normal operating zones, could be done, but takes time and they would not really want to leave the Ebok float low.

So alternatives are to delay payments and restructure if possible.

The cash flow required now is due to the increase in capex to bring more wells on line and that in tern will increase cashflow and ramp up production.

Afren are now cutting discretionary capex and will delay non producing asset expenditure, Barda Rash is an example of this.

(However Barder Rush have now completed the BR5 well and is testing so I believe and my contacts suggest the results here are better than thought so maybe some positive news flow from that afterall, remember Afren still has a 20% share of Hunt oils Kurdistan Asset that have recently committed to more production wells so I'm told)

I think the key here now is the restructure of debt, if this can be done, and probably through the addition of an increased loan facility or 3rd party farm in, Afren could ramp up production to pay back this facility fairly quickly given the major Tax breaks Afren currently receives.

Remember this effects Oriental Energy big time so its not just Afren piling on the pressure to bond holders, bankers etc.

The sp is ridiculous and if a refinancing deal can be struck (just the same as Enquest) things could turn very quickly.

Our saviour will be either a decent bid from Seplat or a supportive restructure short term, remember other debt is serviceable by the hedged oil.

There are some positives to hang onto, and I don't think this is a dead dog yet.

And don't count out Nigerian Bank funding coming in ;-)

The £1.20 price spouted was a generalisation amongst institutional investors what they consider to be an acceptable bid prior to the Kurdistan news.

DYOR as we always say, But Afren's Assets and production upgrades are not worth didly squat not to mention cashflow, they can get out of this with a little help from thier friends and a good CEO

tuppence?

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2929140/Afren-heading-judgement-day-investors-weigh-200m-cash-call.html

less?

28 Jan Westhouse... 2.00 Sell
27 Jan Westhouse... 90.00 Neutral
----------------

How clever are these brokers !

That's so funny..

stop loss at 2p then

In freefall.......upwards!

lol harry

lol Harry.

No offense intended Mitzy! Just thought I would beat you to it!

You have to laugh Harry.

yes...but why..... am I ...choking....

easy to know why ..... the nimble bears darting in and out

another disposal
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/tr-1--notification-of-major-interest-in-shares/201501281255123926D/

this morning was just to let iis out ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2929140/Afren-heading-judgement-day-investors-weigh-200m-cash-call.html

LONDON (ShareCast) - Broker Westhouse Securities has cut Afren from 'neutral' to 'sell' and slashed its target price from 90p to just 2p, saying that the risk of owning shares in the struggling oil producer is too high.
Afren has had a tough past 12 months: it dismissed a number of top executives due to unauthorised payments and has faced operational issues, whilst contending with the recent collapse in crude prices.

Investors are also having to deal with the uncertainty surrounding a potential takeover offer from Nigerian firm Seplat, with a firm approach having not yet been made.

What's more, Afren's share price plummeted on Tuesday after the company said it needs funding in excess of its market capitalisation and wants to defer payments due on its debt to resolve liquidity problems.

Westhouse said: "We downgraded Afren to 'neutral' in September after the suspension of the chief executive, chief operating officer and two associate directors and flagged the risks of owning Afren in its current state.

"Since then, the company has continued to disappoint the market - operational delays, the downgrade of Barda Rash reserves and resources and now the inability to service its debt."

The broker said that, on its current estimates, Afren will breach its financial covenants with its banks this year if capital expenditure levels are maintained.

"It all hinges upon successful debt re-negotiation and a potential equity raise means a material dilution to current shareholders," Westhouse said.

Afren was trading 19% higher at 5.95p by 12:00 on Wednesday after a heavy drop the previous session.

But yesterday they said it was worth 90P ,not last week, yesterday , an absolute bunch of useless tossers and that is why i always ignore all broker recs .
They get paid for this rubbish as well.

Then on the other hand, if they don't go bust and the oil price will eventually get back to normal...... could be a snip at 2p.,.

in your dreams .... the company will be long gone before then
it's not impossible that seplat will make an offer, but it will be for £1 or thereabouts and in any case, there'll be nothing left for PIs