Comment form Evo Securities:
"Buying shares in a challenged business like Lloyds is not for the fainthearted, and requires a healthy scepticism for management guidance as well as excess sellside enthusiasm. The CEO is ill and the CFO is acting-up during his notice period. Revenues are in structural decline, impairments remain elevated, (11H1 177bps), mandatory asset disposals are proving tricky, wholesale funding reliance is still alarming (L/D ratio 144%). Costs are being slashed to drag the business back to (weak) profitability in 2012E.

The near-term UK economic outlook is dire, and the path to recovery is long. However, in the month since we downgraded Lloyds with our report, Stop the World, I want to get off!, 30 September 2011, its relative performance has been so awful even worse than HSBC (Sell) that it creates a sufficiently attractive re-entry opportunity. Ahead of Lloyds Q3 IMS on 8 November, we upgrade from Neutral to Buy. TP 50p.
Never confuse a good company with a good investment.

Over a decade ago Lloyds used to trade on 7x book value (yes really!) Under Sir Brian Pitmans leadership it was a well focussed (albeit overvalued) predominantly UK retail business. Today, Lloyds trades below 0.5x book in recognition that whereas it may ultimately be restored to a relatively conservative retail-dominated UK domestic bank, it remains solidly loss-making in 2011E, profits will be anaemic in 2012/13E, and RoE will remain below CoE until around 2015. Lloyds is certainly not a good Company but at todays entry level it is now a good investment."

TP 50p - they have to be on drugs.

it keeps getting better George Papandreou has been lent on and will hand his resignaion in by 13:30 today lol

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

50p in what time frame one should ask

Nar1 you should find out next tuesday when LLOY announce 3rd quarter results.

greeks may drop referendum...... lol

i would not wanna be outta lloy this weekend lol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We'll get a couple of updates from our banks next week, with the most keenly-awaited being from Lloyds Banking Group on Tuesday. As with all European banks, Lloyds is firmly in the soup right now, but the question is how much of the downside is already factored in the price -- currently down to 29p.

yep looking forward to next week - i would suggest down side is excessively factored in - have a good weekend

Yes - I'm a buyer sub 25p 20p :-)

.Sat 5 Nov 2011 22:07 -
..Lloyd's big wobble: The failure of Antonio Horta-Osorio's health raises key questions

James Quinn and Harry Wilson, 21:17, Saturday 5 November 2011

When Stephen Hester, Stuart Gulliver and Bob Diamond were preparing to walk into The Grimond Room in Portcullis House to answer politicians questions on Tuesday afternoon, the chief executives of RBS (LSE: RBS.L - news) , HSBC (LSE: HSBA.L - news) and Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) respectively were pulled aside by an official to be given the news.

Antonio Horta-Osorio, their opposite number at Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY.L - news) , would not be joining them. Personal reasons was the explanation given. Each man took the news in his stride and went ahead with the grilling in front of the Financial Services Bill Joint Committee.

Wind the clock back 24 hours and all was not calm on the eighth floor of the banks glass-encased headquarters at 25 Gresham Street in the City. For at some point on Monday afternoon, Horta-Osorio, who had only arrived at the bank on March 1, left the building.

Insiders suggest that having looked particularly tired during meetings on Monday morning, Horta-Osorio came to the realisation that he was exhausted while he prepared for the following days hearing. He promptly informed Sir Win Bischoff, the banks chairman, telling him he was going to the doctor. He did not return.

Officially, the bank is saying that there was no crisis, and that Horta-Osorio did the responsible thing. But others say the events were far more dramatic, which raises questions about Horta-Osorio can return as quickly as Lloyds has claimed.

What is clear is that by Monday night, Sir Win knew very clearly that the man he had selected just a year earlier to transform the banks fortunes would not be returning to the executive floor in a hurry.

By Wednesday morning, after the news leaked, Lloyds shares fell 4.5pc to 29.2p, with investors questioning not only Horta-Osorios surprise departure despite assurances that he is likely to return by the end of the year but the decision to appoint the outgoing finance director, Tim Tookey, as interim chief executive. The days that have passed have raised more questions of the true state of Horta-Osorios health, of corporate governance and of board practice. Many have questioned whether he will ever return.

It has been clear talking to those in the bank that Antonio hasnt been working properly for a number of weeks, said one former Lloyds staffer, although sources close to Lloyds refute such suggestions. Decisions were not getting made, in external meetings he appeared distracted, internally things were not happening.

A financier from a rival bank recollects meeting Horta-Osorio over the summer when he had been his usual sparky self. But last month he had failed to show up for a scheduled meeting, and Tookey had arrived alone. Another source, who saw him a fortnight ago, said he looked terribly tired and, at times, seemed distant.

Others, though, have pointed to the fact that Horta-Osorio continued to take time out of work to play tennis and spent time working out with his personal trainer.

One senior source suggested Horta-Osorios extreme fatigue might be down to his obsession with detail and micro-managing matters which most other chief executives would have let aides deal with. Speaking to The Sunday Telegraph in early July, Horta-Osorio admitted he thought nothing of holding strategy meetings at weekends because it allowed his senior managers to have clearer heads. My days have been quite intense recently, he said, adding: Detail is very important if you want to go in the right direction.

Typical of this obsessive approach, Horta-Osorio was apparently so concerned by toxins that he demanded his own teapot travel with him on trips, while his favourite green tea was made available in every meeting room he was likely to go into. Apparently, Horta-Osorio, one of the most powerful men in UK banking, could get very upset if this wasnt the case.

Dealing with such small details at the same time as being the front man of a public company something he had not had to deal with as UK chief executive of Santander (Madrid: SAN.MC - news) clearly took its toll. While more than at home with the inner workings of bank integration and the groups daily operations, it is understood Horta-Osorio felt pressure from being the chief executive of a bank in which UK taxpayers have a 41pc stake.

Regular calls to and meetings with UK Financial Investments (which manages the stake on the behalf of the Government), the Treasury and the Bank of England, plus requests to appear before a variety of Parliamentary committees, all added to his burden. Whereas at other banks the regulatory role is often separated HSBC chairman Douglas Flint takes on far more of that work than the CEO, Stuart Gulliver, for example Horta-Osorio kept it all to himself.

The ongoing sale of project Verde, the 632-branch business Lloyds is selling, added to that pressure. His relations with Paul Pester, Verdes chief executive, are said to have been strained, with Pester pushing for a stock market float, while Horta-Osorio preferred a trade sale. Other tensions are said to have come from a perceived them and us culture at the bank which developed alongside the arrival of several senior hires he brought to Lloyds from Santander.

Juan Colombas was appointed as Lloyds chief risk officer, having held the same role at Santander UK, and former Santander UK chief financial officer Antonio Lorenzo was drafted in to run Lloyds wealth and international business. Other senior recruits from Santander included Alison Brittain, who replaced Helen Weir as retail chief, and Nathan Bostock, the new wholesale chief who joined from RBS but had worked with Horta-Osorio at Santander.

The clean-out of the executive floor by Horta-Osorio has done little for morale among the rank-and-file, particularly among Lloyds lifers, and it is said that talk of the them and us division was enough to anger Horta-Osorio, who is said to have regularly raised his voice to the people who reported to him.

How much the board knew of the increasing pressures facing its chief executive is not known, however. None of the senior non-executives The Sunday Telegraph tried to contact this weekend chose to return calls.

But as the newspaper reveals today, the boards situation is far from certain. In addition to the questions surrounding who on the board knew what and when, questions remain as to whether it should have allowed Horta-Osorio to change the executive team quite so soon after his arrival, replacing directors with years of experience and knowledge with newcomers from a much smaller, foreign-owned institution.

It is understood that on Wednesday morning, two days after Horta-Osorio left Lloyds City headquarters, the board met in person and via teleconference. It was split over what it should announce. One faction, led by Sir Win, backed the announcement that was made, promising Horta-Osorios return by the end of the year. But another faction felt it would be more sensible to say that he would not return at all, and announce immediate changes to the banks executive line-up.

It is understood that the board has already developed a contingency plan for the possibility Horta-Osorio does not return. Insiders suggest an update on his condition will be known within two to three weeks, and it is at this point, if necessary, a decision on whether or not to introduce the plan will be made.

In the short term, that plan is understood to involve the appointment of a senior existing board figure to an executive role.

None of this answers the question of who will take on the key executive roles long-term should Horta-Osorio not return. With Tookey firmly in the departure lounge he leaves in February to become finance director of Resolutions Friends Life business the board faces the very real prospect the banking group could in the future be without a chief executive or a finance director.

The existing search to replace Tookey is understood to have reached the second round, with a handful of strong external candidates as well as internal candidates. Bostock is possibly in line for the role, and that of chief executive in the long-term, with Mark Fisher, group operations director, a chief executive contender. For investors, the key issue is the uncertainty of all this and whether Horta-Osorios strategy will remain in place.

Ultimately, our view is that Lloyds should be viewed as a super-tanker. The strategy is in place and the issue is now execution, said John Paul Crutchley, analyst at UBS (NYSEArca: DJCI - news) . But Robert Law of Nomura said Horta-Osorios leave of absence was an obvious negative, given the many senior management changes and initiatives [made] since his appointment.

If Horta-Osorio does return something which sources at the very top of Lloyds insist is going to happen it is clear the status quo, of him micro-managing everything, cannot continue.

Although a new division of labour is not yet thought to have been discussed by the board, a new approach in which both the chairman and finance director take on some of his responsibilities is likely.

But all that is a big if, and is dependent on the outcome of the next few weeks. Whether the dashing Portugese banker will return to sip green tea at 25 Gresham Street remains to be seen.

Will he come back...

I doubt it very much so..

Co-op bond may fund Lloyds branch bid

James Quinn, 6:16, Sunday 6 November 2011

The Co-operative Group is considering launching its first retail bond to part-fund its expected bid for Lloyds Verde branches in a radical departure for the mutual organisation.

The Sunday Telegraph has learnt that the Co-op, led by chief executive Peter Marks, has carried out a detailed study of the benefits of making a move into the increasingly popular retail bond market.

The study was sanctioned by the Co-ops board, but due to the complex nature of the Co-ops ruling structure, it would need to be sanctioned not only by its group board, but also go to a vote of the Co-ops members.

It is thought the bond could raise several hundred million pounds for the group.

It is understood Mr Marks sees such a bond as a key element of the mutuals funding mix in the future, and a unique way of raising money from retail investors, given it has no way of raising equity from its members.

The Verde offer will initially be funded by institutional debt, but it is likely the retail bond could well form part of the funding mix

With that possibility, plus an easing of the pressure in Greece, might see a short term recovery in the LLOY sp on monday, ready for an even better recovery on tuesday when trading statement is made!

Harry you wish!

lol @ skinny 3170

fantastic news - yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.....

6 November 2011 Last updated at 20:32 Share this pageEmail Print Share this page

Beleaguered Prime Minister George Papandreou has agreed that he will not lead the coalition, the statement said.

He and main opposition leader Antonis Samaras attended the talks, hosted by President Karolos Papoulias.

More talks will take place in the morning to decide who will lead the coalition.

Once the new leader has been named, the president will invite all parties to join the national unity government, the statement said.

The announcement follows a week of political turmoil over Greece's debt crisis....................... et cetera

roll on tomorrow.................

hc imo there will be a recovery of sorts b4 tuesday..... we'll see

dc lol yes - co op were always on the side lines - obviously hoping for a lower price this becomes interesting now - its currently a 3 way bid including the private equity group who are cash rich and the option as launching as a seperate stock market company which many of lloy big guns are keen on lol

potugese guy - no return likely he'll be history soon - though lloy onwards and upwards - even with his micro mgmt style one man dont make a c ompany and it is unlikely execs brought in will exit - good job they are there because they worked with him for years know his style and will be able to continue turn around without him - there is interesting stuff happening even right now tonight - yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

All very odd to me. I hope his buds do not leave with him? As they say time will tell.
Good luck gibby.