Another newcomer to the main market...anybody any idea what the production figures are ?

No disrespect to that poster, as I am sure they know what they are talking about, but hindsight is a great thing and the chartists always seem to point out that certain indicators were obvious after the event, never before!

Arbuthnot's note:
The company provided a comprehensive slide pack detailing the technical and commercial aspects of its operations in Kurdistan. What was evident from the subsequent presentation was that the Miran field is significantly more complicated than previously thought. In essence, what we thought to be a billion barrel oil field is actually a relatively large gas field with shallow gas; a very different proposition for both Heritage and the investment community.
The company made good efforts to highlight that the gas aspect of this field was commercial; however, we are generally sceptical regarding the health of global gas market. The IEA has forecast that the global gas market in 2011 will be oversupplied, by 200bcm in 2011. It also forecasts that the global gas market will continue to be oversupplied until 2020.
In the presentation, Heritage illustrated potential monetisation routes for their gas into Turkey and into Europe via the Nabucco pipeline. However, this pipeline has yet to receive final approvals which could be gained in Q1 2011.
Should Heritage go down the export pipeline route, it will be locked into a multi-billion dollar project for at least five years. This scenario sounds a lot like where they were with Uganda two/three years ago, but selling Kurdish gas is not going to be as easy a proposition as selling Ugandan oil. Instead, we feel that the more likely scenario is Heritage conducting more exploration and appraisal work in 2011/12, with the hope of building the oil resource base. Assuming successful results from this programme, the ultimate goal of selling the asset thereafter could be a more attractive exit than development. We do not feel that they have the appetite to pursue a long and uncertain development project.

Note from Matrix:
"Heritage may have discovered one of the largest gas fields in Iraq in the last 20-30 years, but we think its timetable to first production (2015) is very optimistic, and underestimates the challenges of gas monetisation in Kurdistan/Iraq. On our valuation, the economics of gas development are substantially less attractive than those of a similar-sized oil field. Consequently, we are downgrading Heritage to REDUCE from BUY, cutting our target price to 310p from 580p.

First production in 2015 is unlikely: In our view, the companys expectation of delivering first gas production in 2015 is too optimistic and underestimates the complexity of regional pipeline projects. The Nabucco project requires a set of complex intergovernmental agreements (involving several countries) and funding arrangements that may take years to finalise before construction can begin. Connecting to the Turkish pipeline system could be a more realistic solution, but it would require substantial investment to de-bottleneck the current pipeline system in Turkey in order to deliver Iraqi gas to the Western part of the country, where most of the industrial demand is."

so if that chap was such a smartarse, did he go short?

hc - well researched - even though the gas find is potentially huge would have swapped it for less oil any day imo - i am not sure what they gonna do with all that gas!?

cynic - you would think so wouldnt you - strangely enough he did not mention

Gibby ask cynic what he does with all his gas............he might have the answer.,.

i was and remain an old fart, so now you know

lol balerboy & cynic - have a good evening chaps

your opinions would be much appreciated on this share.

.

the chart says it all, but even with the gas find rns it suddenly has'nt become a bad company overnight.

that was also my thought, but the market seems to believe otherwise
i've posted the 5 year chart below, and for what it's worth, one would surely think that a bounce is seriously o'due - but are we/you brave enough?

that is the $64000 question.

It takes a brave man to catch a falling knife.
In fact, I'm tempted to short it looking at the graph.

there is a minor bounce on at the moment.

it's suddenly recovering very fast so shorting might prove much more dangerous than the knife trick

bought in at 3.42 then again at 2.93.

what to do?

293 can't be all wrong i think .... assuming equal quantities then b/e = 3.18 which isn't to terrifying ..... once it recovers to that, it becomes very much your choice as to what to do

thanks