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UPDATED 22/1/07

Valuation of Chaco Resources : 'Rule of Thumb' based on 550m shares and using 10% DCF on oil at $60/barrel is 1p on the sp for every 1m barrels (CHP's share) that is proved. Until oil reserves are proven the 1p/1m barrels will be discounted by the market.

Chaco Resources now has three exploration blocks in Colombia and three areas in Paraguay. The next year should see a steady news flow as it establishes the companys transformation from being an exploration company only to also becoming a significant oil production company. Set out below are some of the milestones which should produce announcements and have a positive effect on the share price. All reserves are quoted in recoverable oil assets.



Alea, Colombia :

25% interest in a field currently assessed at holding 38.1m barrels of light sweet crude oil. Drilling of the field by the operating partner, Ecopetrol, was programmed for 2006 to provide early cash flow, but a shortage of drilling rigs, then the rainy season and increased environmental requirements have caused a re-think and it is now expected that this block will be drilled in first half 2007.The proposal to drill a step out well as part of that drilling programme will also provide the opportunity to establish if the estimate of recoverable oil should be increased. (Some estimates suggest the field contains as much as 70m barrels.)

RNS : Updated w/c 30/4//07. Drilling contract should be imminent but actual drilling unlikely to take place second half 2007.



Puerto Lopez, Colombia :

54% Interest in a field containing light sweet crude oil.On 3.10.06 CHP announced that the original TEA area had been extended by the ANH to include further territory which it is expected will greatly increase the potential to find and exploit a structure which may contain as much oil as there is believed to be in Primavera, where Hardman and Co estimate that there is a potential value of 120p per CHP share.

RNS :Updated 22/1/07. Further seismic now obtained and decision not to proceed made because closures too small to be economic and drilling funds earmarked for this project now being retained for use on a more prospective block yet to be announced



Primavera west, Colombia :

55% interest. Two shallow drills in April turned out to be dry. Areas adjacent to this block contain oil (Cana Limon, also in the Mirador basin, the largest oilfield so far, 1.8b barrels) Chaco believe that the area in their block contains the thicker end of a wedge shaped oil-bearing sandstone structure; the area to the east in the neighbouring block has been estimated as containing 400m barrels and the El Miedo oilfield, 8 kms.away has 325m barrels. ANH Contract signed w/c 8/5/06 (1 week sooner than forecast). GED are drilling their neighbouring block in February 2007; two of their targets may contain oil deriving from Chaco's area so some earlier cash flow may result.

RNS : The drilling programme has now been completed but the company has yet to say whether the block will be explored further or abandonned.

New block announced in April known as Tigra in the Magdelana Basin. CHP has a 48.75% interest. Believed to be very promising but company is doing 3-d seismic over the next 18 months with drilling projected in the following 16 months. (Timescales seem to be set to allow a lot of room for delays or speeding up if progress is easier than anticipated)



Curupayty Block, Paraguay :

1.39m hectares in north, close to Bolivia. Two wells previously drilled and both showed oil.

RNS : Expect partnership with larger producer.



San Pedro Block, Paraguay :

1m hectares in south-east. Previous drilling showed oil.

RNS : Expect partnership with larger producer.



Parana Basin, Paraguay :

Canindeyu block covering 1,789,000 hectares. Bordering Brazil. Oil field on Brazilian side already drilled. Chaco also expect to find oil and, at a deeper level, considerable quantities of gas. Chaco has obtained valuable historic seismic for re-evaluation.

RNS : Presidential Decree received 2/11/06.. Petrobras has announced its intention to increase substantially its effort to exploit Paraguay's hydrocarbons and has announced a farm-in on CDS's adjacent block. Possibility that they or another major will do likewise with CHP



Corporate Activity :

CHP obtained an independent evaluation of their exploration assets by Hardman and Co., during July 2006.This is updated monthly. As Chaco Resources line up their assets ready for production they may attract a bid. There are also other actions that the mgt. could take to increase the Chaco's asset share subject to negotiation since the position of the Colombian state oil company, Ecopetrol, is believed to be under review. Other actions could be taken which would have the attraction in bringing more resources to bear on a quicker timeframe plus help streamline the management of their assets. De-merging the Colombian and Paraguayan assets at an appropriate time might hold out some advantages to shareholders at some stage.
Last Placing announced at 15.1p per share on 18/5/06.
Chairman and FD bought shares 8/06 and the Chairman recently exercised his option on further shares which would suggest that he regards the share price to be going north from here on.
Updated 22/1/07.




Here are some dates for your diary courtesy of KJKelly, who posts on ADVFN

1. Curupayty - complete reprocessing of seismic by end July 06
2. Curupayty - complete interpretation of seismic by end August 06
3. Curupayty - decide whether to proceed to drilling or proceed with a farmout campaign - end September 06
4. Platanillo - commence re-entry of Alea 1 early in 1st quarter 2007
5. Primavera - two structural targets will be selected from 10 potential targets for drilling commencing Feb. 2007.
6.Hardman updates should now happen monthly.

I seem to remember that Alea was to add 17p to the value of CHP. No value had been added before drilling of Primavera and so therefore nothing should have been taken off for the duster. This is all a total sham as SP will recover in time, whatever the results. X trades when there is plenty of availability, strange, some one wants to fill a large order, question is how big?

Sharesure - its most definatley spudded, whether or not the results will be positive remain to be seen. I truly hope they are. I cant contemplate Primavera being a complete duff after all that was said about it last year.

robbi I think its not included in the SP any longer and anything positive from Primavera will send us into orbit.

In any event there is other positive news due on other fronts too. I still think that what we have just seen was engineered to some degree hence all the anxiety caused by giving no news of dates of drilling in advance. Would like to think that we have seen the last of the weak sp of recent times.
Also would be interested to see an RNS on +3% stakes and director Buys.

I can see us going back to 9p-9.5p now the dust has settled, news would be a massive bonus!

Agree with both of u there. There is no way, at this price Primavera is included in valuation. Alea alone is worth probably 50% more than the current SP. I would love to see a positive result fg, imagine the rise ;) but i will remain cautious until proven otherwise.

Sharesure - the fall does/has had a funny feeling to it, i was just discussing the possibility of director deals over on the other board, but many thought it would not be allowed during this period or before such price sensitive info?

The new block is what i am most looking forward to (and have been for the past 2 months)

another nice 500K buy just in!

how L2 FG??

1 vs 3 (I'd ignore it at the moment)

can only buy 100K online, I think a move up is immiinent imo

Volume just about to breach 7 million

Please don't jump down my throat, but however far fetched this may sound (and highly unlikely IMHO), it's a well known fact that the new CEO would much rather have institutions own the company shares rather than P.I 's, so what's to say drilling a duster on the first spud wasn't a mistake ? It would definitely clear out the smaller private investors thru fear of losing everything, and also free up many shares for the larger institutions (and his friends) to buy up at a much discounted price...

All a bit `X Files' theory I admit, but a possibility, if they're sure that oil is in abundance in our area and there was a chance of snapping up shares at a cheaper price. I would sincerely hope this isn't the case, but it wouldn't be the first (or last) manipulation of a share price.

All will be revealed soon enough I guess

tudwick - you never know. There was probably always a good chance of them drilling a duster on the first well to learn more about the geology. Nevertheless, your theory has been brought up on the bb's a few times now, wouldnt surprise me. Although, I can't see the institutions from the recent placing being too happy, and i cant see Blue Oar being too happy after recently taking on Chaco to see its sp drop almost 50% in its first week. Im sure they will be wanting to learn more about the company, starting very soon, with a visit to Colombia.

8 million traded now!

tudwick, I have suspicions along the same lines. However there's little we can do about it at this stage without it being a case of shooting ourselves in the foot. I think that if that was the plan maybe now it has been executed and I hope we can get back to having some of the newsflow which many of us believe is waiting in the wings.

the larger trades being worked (1mil at the end today) would support your suspicions SS.

S/S
As long as we hold on to our shares we wont suffer if manipulation has taken place.

Uncanny how TFC has "evaporated" ( as he suggested my investment might) this afternoon following some recovery in the share price. Obviously too pre-occupied managing his various shorts.

You will read or perhaps, if you are in the know, that a number of head dealers have been suspended after trading in CHP and other matters . Mine included . ...For myself i am a very busy man and have no longer sufficient time to closely follow this as much as one should . So as such i closed two shorts { as ALREADY stated ) for cash and with profits from yesterday and another this morning . and the one that remained i converted the combined profits into a BUY of 200,000 shares . So now i stand long . This was a combination of SHEER luck reg timing . This i do not DENY !! BUT bloody HARD gruelling work as i stayed up for two nights straight working out where precisely the support lay and concluded it was @ 6.875. ..( how many of you spend that much time non stop on your investigations reg, trades) in one sitting? Very few i voucher ..............so playing the % s ( as in 99% of cases) i closed all shorts and looking at the dynamics of the stock stand long . Very fleeting nad temporary but LONG ! .......Nothing to do with CHP prospects of which i am STILL NOT convinced - MERELY market dynamics EVEN us rebs only fight battles we can win / conforming to the adage that scared money never wins /////// looking for 12p/13p then out ....../ .....then prob short again c'est la vie mon amis @+ J ,

Annie , Do not count your chikens before they r hatched . l said in an earliar post today i had closed yesterday and first thing this morning . Also yesterday i was in Paris so didnt evaporate as you suggested ......................................l dont care a jot- not a carrot, about the prospects of CHP . l simply go with the flow keeping a hawkish and watchful eye on mms stance; and how they are playing ...and market dynamics/ mechanics .....................................Also l am aware of knowledge that is not in the public domain / not arrogant or aloof . Merely a realistic analyist ........b/chance ,,@+ J also ma hone l hold 24 stocks long and only 7 shorts Hardly Simon C ...-Though a younger slimmer better looking version if facts be known .................As i have said before .....Love / Hate me ...l merely make a call as i see it............./ ln addition another duster will finish you at CHP .....Like an inswinging unplayable yorker from the likes of Mcgrath or Donald or Marshall, or a ball turning in both flight and off the track from the hand of the master of spin, Shane Warne, and before your bat can even block it both off and middle stump and bails are scattered everywhere..............and you is walking ........

TFC - i appreciate your honesty in declaring your positions. Quite intrigued to what your day job actually is, also intrigued by the claim that a number of head dealers have been suspended? Where exactly is this? You seem a fairly successful swing trader, but i cannot agree that another duster will finish CHP. You cant deny some of the fundamentals here, whilst Alea is a proven reserve.

So your looking for 12/13p? short term or long term? That would may be difficult if we hit a duster of course. You mention knowledge not in the public domain....care to elaborate?

regards

My god tfc, you really are a busy man. Not only were you never going long on CHP again, but you have closed 2 shorts instead of waiting for the 2/3p that you were forecasting. You spent 2 nights working out where support lay for CHP, when shorely as soon as trading started on day 3 there would be a completely new set of variables to consider. During the same time period you have been away in Paris. I don't doubt for one minute that you may have made a few profits on the way, but to predict CHP as you suggest you have is too uncanny. I take it, that by your own actions, you have conceeded that your forecasts last week were unrealistic.