The oil rig disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has damaged BP's reputation will they manage to avoid a share collapse to 350p.?



472p to buy this morning.

Thanks for the advice French.

Not worried about predicted hurricanes, lawsuits, leak containment failures, price of oil, court cases or anything like that - as a chartist, so far as I'm concerned, it's all in the price.

The only reason I considered the BP chart is because everywhere you look in the media you see doom and gloom - there seems to be negative sentiment in every corner. And the one thing we know about the markets for sure is that they will always do whatever hurts the most people. And you have to assume in this case that 'most people' are now either short, capitulated long, or are long and stubborn but considering capitulation.

And yet the chart is showing support at 330/332 - it may well be part of a pennant signalling a drop to 300/290, or it may be a bottom forming before a trip back to 380ish. If you have level 2, check out the massive support on the order book between 330 and 330.25.

The long side looks the less risky trade to me simply because the stop loss is better defined.

G

sold a few at 335.8 - part banked and the rest of the profit pays for the risk on the remaining position - assuming I'm not spiked out below my stop.

If we retest today's lows I'll probably build the position a little; otherwise I'm pretty happy with the morning's trading and will let things run.

Unlucky Boy - since nobody as answered your question, the problem is for the next 20 years you wont see a Dividend, There are talks of all BP. assets being seized in the US of A = 20 Billion wont last 10 mins when the Lawyers start raping the Account and basically the Company is F*****. And like someone earlier mentioned, imagine a Hurricane spreading the slick - might even be able to claim here on the East Coast of the U.K, Now wheres them claim forms !!

Thanks Nord - that's an extreme (some might say 'nutcase') version of the sort of negative sentiment that's out there in spades. It means that the markets expect mildly bad news and so the BP sp wouldn't react significantly to such news. Unexpected good news, on the other hand, would have a huge impact.

nordcaperen, I fear yr a tad too depressed. Sure BP is in heck of a mess, but it's not all BP's fault, IMHO. The company isn't reckless beyond reason, paerticularly as few of us have been there. When things start to change decisions have to be taken; on average BP appears to have done reasonably well in the past - and this is an entirely new situation. Sureely reality will strike at the hearts of US citizens as they fill up their SUV...that they are the root cause of oil-demand and the consequence is risk. It was the US Gov that wants home-based exploration - and I'm not convinced that all these "poverty" claims are on the level - witness the delays the US Government has seen fit in the Mississippi flooding - that was years ago!.
Also, BP has set aside money, so it's more-like sharing it out, rather than starting a new claim....anyone that tries that may find they do have a long drawn-out (expensive) wait - Let's not forget BP had a cap on their liability, something that's been forgotten short-term.

Once this oil is pumping--clean, plus the anticipated hurricane may do more good than harm (by dispersing the oil, so nature can cope?), the reality is that with BP operating, they are "probably" the best chance USA has for this (and other) deep drilling, if only a competant source of BOP can be sourced......my suspicion is that a NEW approach will be needed, perhaps so smaller (conventional) BOP's can be used- or maybe the depth demands a new approach, dunno.

What is sure is, there really is a lot of oil down there.
You suggest " ...20-years before the dividend is reinstated ..."
.... BP's is more likely to go belly-up IMHO. The "Sentiment" will turn quite quickly (this is only yet another spill, it's nothing new) also there are many US-citizens dependent on BP for employment and their pension funds . . . . My guess is two years should see some restoration . . . . Well, hope so, I bought a few a week ago at 3.57
but who knows?
Maybe Gausie is right about the sp movemenmt, I'm agreed . . .

Gausie, what good news is that then, Do you mean the Guy who's just blown his own brains out because he's lost his Livelyhood - Sure that'll get the sp flying, Hang on though, get any 25 Million people with claims to do the same and hey presto you might get a Dividend in 10 years not 20. Even BP. as big as they are will not survive this in the long term - Obama WILL seize assets, BP will cease to exist as is, that is a fact. By all means take your gamble and buy the shares, just dont be crying when you get a 'Told you so' in the future. Now stop inter-rupting me Im filling my BP. Claim Form out for cleaning the Hulls of my Super-Yatch.

Nord - "what good news is that then?" - that's the point. I have no idea what good news might come, nor indeed whether any will. Nobody expects any good news, everybody expects bad news. Bad news will consequently do little to shift the sp. Good news will put a rocket up its arse. Ask a competent trader what the word 'sentiment' means.

I don't give a toss about obama or dividends or long term industry prospects - all that nonsense is in the price. And so far as your 'super yacht' (or 'super yatch' or whatever you call it) is concerned, I wish you the very best of luck with your insurance claim.

So far as regretting the trade is concerned, there's little chance of that. I opened the position expecting a loss and I traded the opening position reasonably succesfully this morning. If you check back you'll see I posted the trades as I made them. I have banked a small profit (just a couple of hundred pounds) and have used the additional profit from this morning to bankroll any prospective losses on the remaining position. It's now a win or win trade for me. If I do cry when you give me your 'told you so' speech, it's likely to be tears of laughter at your inability to understand the simple methods that traders use to spot opportunities to make money whilst sheep and bunnies like you stare frozen into the oncoming headlights.

Have you never traded against strong sentiment before? It usually offers the very best of all market opportunities.

Now go finish cleaning your yacht. And do the little yellow duck too. It'll be bath time soon.

G

On the other hand a hurricane or two might be the best thing to happen, it could well have the effect of naturally dispersing the oil natures way. Not disputing the fact that oil is still gushing and until stopped is still the problem. In my naieve mind I would have thought with todays specialty explosives, they could have sealed the well with a charge in the right place and drilled again for a new well.....any comments? BB

Whatever, for 200 profit mate - Give up you'll be telling me next you do spread betting as well !!! You end up losing all your Benefit Money playing them games, buy yourself The Sun , Throw a dart in the Horsey section and put your dole money on that, you'll have more chance. You Big Spender you !!!!!! Roflmao

If that was the 'told you so' speech, then I'm already crying with laughter. 250 profit is the downside of the trade.

What's the downside on your short, oh great Sensei?

250, Wow, what a player you are - Probably what it cost you in charges when you lost a packet on your Jarvis shares, seem to be a bit of a chancer to me - Did you buy them on sentiment as well !!

>>Nordcaperon

I seem to remember doing alright on Jarvis over the years - are you referring to any particular trade? It would be awfully flattering to see you're researching me. At least it would be if you mattered.

250 profit as downside is small beer to you? Wow. You must have such a massively huge ePenis! I am truly in awe at its size.

Coming off fast after US opening, and now back just above support.

Dilemma time - hold or add? Suspect hold is the better option for the time being. Review in an hour.

Added 331.75

Nordcaperon - How about you sharing (no pun intended) your trades with us all. Easy to criticize other people, at least Gausie has the balls to share his however misguided you may think they are.

Chris - I think he's too busy supervising his butler painting his yacht. Then he's going to watch his chauffeur wash his ferrari, then he's back on to his private jet to re-measure his e-penis. He's joining Tabby with a couple of pineapples in Tabby's west wing tonight. Aint the internet great?

Stopped out - small loss.

Nord.you got a friend for life in me mate dishing it out to that piece of ****.
Gausie keeps doing his bo**ocksthen goes running to Mummy for a top uphe is pretty dam good at telling everyone else how wrong they areI remember him shorting M&S @ 2-25.when I was long only to see them hit 3 in double quick time now he is doing his nuts in BPlolbut of course hell make a shed load of moneyMummy will see to that the Man is a fruit case! A Pineapple one
Keep up the good work my friend

Chris at least Gausie has the balls to share his however misguided you may think they are.
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Chris.he is as slippery as a conger eel in a bowl of jellybe warned!

Hi tabby, my little stalker friend. I wondered when you'd pitch up. But knew you would. Guess I need to change my aftershave.

Are you still preparing your court case against me? For where you claim I've stayed just inside the law? Should I be quaking in my boots?

Does your missus still give blowjobs round the back of Gillingham M&S to try to cover your meldex losses? And are all her customers still asking for their money back?

Oops - sorry, you corrected me when I misquoted you last time. It's Rainham M&S, isn't it?

G