______

UPDATED 22/1/07

Valuation of Chaco Resources : 'Rule of Thumb' based on 550m shares and using 10% DCF on oil at $60/barrel is 1p on the sp for every 1m barrels (CHP's share) that is proved. Until oil reserves are proven the 1p/1m barrels will be discounted by the market.

Chaco Resources now has three exploration blocks in Colombia and three areas in Paraguay. The next year should see a steady news flow as it establishes the companys transformation from being an exploration company only to also becoming a significant oil production company. Set out below are some of the milestones which should produce announcements and have a positive effect on the share price. All reserves are quoted in recoverable oil assets.



Alea, Colombia :

25% interest in a field currently assessed at holding 38.1m barrels of light sweet crude oil. Drilling of the field by the operating partner, Ecopetrol, was programmed for 2006 to provide early cash flow, but a shortage of drilling rigs, then the rainy season and increased environmental requirements have caused a re-think and it is now expected that this block will be drilled in first half 2007.The proposal to drill a step out well as part of that drilling programme will also provide the opportunity to establish if the estimate of recoverable oil should be increased. (Some estimates suggest the field contains as much as 70m barrels.)

RNS : Updated w/c 30/4//07. Drilling contract should be imminent but actual drilling unlikely to take place second half 2007.



Puerto Lopez, Colombia :

54% Interest in a field containing light sweet crude oil.On 3.10.06 CHP announced that the original TEA area had been extended by the ANH to include further territory which it is expected will greatly increase the potential to find and exploit a structure which may contain as much oil as there is believed to be in Primavera, where Hardman and Co estimate that there is a potential value of 120p per CHP share.

RNS :Updated 22/1/07. Further seismic now obtained and decision not to proceed made because closures too small to be economic and drilling funds earmarked for this project now being retained for use on a more prospective block yet to be announced



Primavera west, Colombia :

55% interest. Two shallow drills in April turned out to be dry. Areas adjacent to this block contain oil (Cana Limon, also in the Mirador basin, the largest oilfield so far, 1.8b barrels) Chaco believe that the area in their block contains the thicker end of a wedge shaped oil-bearing sandstone structure; the area to the east in the neighbouring block has been estimated as containing 400m barrels and the El Miedo oilfield, 8 kms.away has 325m barrels. ANH Contract signed w/c 8/5/06 (1 week sooner than forecast). GED are drilling their neighbouring block in February 2007; two of their targets may contain oil deriving from Chaco's area so some earlier cash flow may result.

RNS : The drilling programme has now been completed but the company has yet to say whether the block will be explored further or abandonned.

New block announced in April known as Tigra in the Magdelana Basin. CHP has a 48.75% interest. Believed to be very promising but company is doing 3-d seismic over the next 18 months with drilling projected in the following 16 months. (Timescales seem to be set to allow a lot of room for delays or speeding up if progress is easier than anticipated)



Curupayty Block, Paraguay :

1.39m hectares in north, close to Bolivia. Two wells previously drilled and both showed oil.

RNS : Expect partnership with larger producer.



San Pedro Block, Paraguay :

1m hectares in south-east. Previous drilling showed oil.

RNS : Expect partnership with larger producer.



Parana Basin, Paraguay :

Canindeyu block covering 1,789,000 hectares. Bordering Brazil. Oil field on Brazilian side already drilled. Chaco also expect to find oil and, at a deeper level, considerable quantities of gas. Chaco has obtained valuable historic seismic for re-evaluation.

RNS : Presidential Decree received 2/11/06.. Petrobras has announced its intention to increase substantially its effort to exploit Paraguay's hydrocarbons and has announced a farm-in on CDS's adjacent block. Possibility that they or another major will do likewise with CHP



Corporate Activity :

CHP obtained an independent evaluation of their exploration assets by Hardman and Co., during July 2006.This is updated monthly. As Chaco Resources line up their assets ready for production they may attract a bid. There are also other actions that the mgt. could take to increase the Chaco's asset share subject to negotiation since the position of the Colombian state oil company, Ecopetrol, is believed to be under review. Other actions could be taken which would have the attraction in bringing more resources to bear on a quicker timeframe plus help streamline the management of their assets. De-merging the Colombian and Paraguayan assets at an appropriate time might hold out some advantages to shareholders at some stage.
Last Placing announced at 15.1p per share on 18/5/06.
Chairman and FD bought shares 8/06 and the Chairman recently exercised his option on further shares which would suggest that he regards the share price to be going north from here on.
Updated 22/1/07.




Here are some dates for your diary courtesy of KJKelly, who posts on ADVFN

1. Curupayty - complete reprocessing of seismic by end July 06
2. Curupayty - complete interpretation of seismic by end August 06
3. Curupayty - decide whether to proceed to drilling or proceed with a farmout campaign - end September 06
4. Platanillo - commence re-entry of Alea 1 early in 1st quarter 2007
5. Primavera - two structural targets will be selected from 10 potential targets for drilling commencing Feb. 2007.
6.Hardman updates should now happen monthly.

tudwick - you never know. There was probably always a good chance of them drilling a duster on the first well to learn more about the geology. Nevertheless, your theory has been brought up on the bb's a few times now, wouldnt surprise me. Although, I can't see the institutions from the recent placing being too happy, and i cant see Blue Oar being too happy after recently taking on Chaco to see its sp drop almost 50% in its first week. Im sure they will be wanting to learn more about the company, starting very soon, with a visit to Colombia.

8 million traded now!

tudwick, I have suspicions along the same lines. However there's little we can do about it at this stage without it being a case of shooting ourselves in the foot. I think that if that was the plan maybe now it has been executed and I hope we can get back to having some of the newsflow which many of us believe is waiting in the wings.

the larger trades being worked (1mil at the end today) would support your suspicions SS.

S/S
As long as we hold on to our shares we wont suffer if manipulation has taken place.

Uncanny how TFC has "evaporated" ( as he suggested my investment might) this afternoon following some recovery in the share price. Obviously too pre-occupied managing his various shorts.

You will read or perhaps, if you are in the know, that a number of head dealers have been suspended after trading in CHP and other matters . Mine included . ...For myself i am a very busy man and have no longer sufficient time to closely follow this as much as one should . So as such i closed two shorts { as ALREADY stated ) for cash and with profits from yesterday and another this morning . and the one that remained i converted the combined profits into a BUY of 200,000 shares . So now i stand long . This was a combination of SHEER luck reg timing . This i do not DENY !! BUT bloody HARD gruelling work as i stayed up for two nights straight working out where precisely the support lay and concluded it was @ 6.875. ..( how many of you spend that much time non stop on your investigations reg, trades) in one sitting? Very few i voucher ..............so playing the % s ( as in 99% of cases) i closed all shorts and looking at the dynamics of the stock stand long . Very fleeting nad temporary but LONG ! .......Nothing to do with CHP prospects of which i am STILL NOT convinced - MERELY market dynamics EVEN us rebs only fight battles we can win / conforming to the adage that scared money never wins /////// looking for 12p/13p then out ....../ .....then prob short again c'est la vie mon amis @+ J ,

Annie , Do not count your chikens before they r hatched . l said in an earliar post today i had closed yesterday and first thing this morning . Also yesterday i was in Paris so didnt evaporate as you suggested ......................................l dont care a jot- not a carrot, about the prospects of CHP . l simply go with the flow keeping a hawkish and watchful eye on mms stance; and how they are playing ...and market dynamics/ mechanics .....................................Also l am aware of knowledge that is not in the public domain / not arrogant or aloof . Merely a realistic analyist ........b/chance ,,@+ J also ma hone l hold 24 stocks long and only 7 shorts Hardly Simon C ...-Though a younger slimmer better looking version if facts be known .................As i have said before .....Love / Hate me ...l merely make a call as i see it............./ ln addition another duster will finish you at CHP .....Like an inswinging unplayable yorker from the likes of Mcgrath or Donald or Marshall, or a ball turning in both flight and off the track from the hand of the master of spin, Shane Warne, and before your bat can even block it both off and middle stump and bails are scattered everywhere..............and you is walking ........

TFC - i appreciate your honesty in declaring your positions. Quite intrigued to what your day job actually is, also intrigued by the claim that a number of head dealers have been suspended? Where exactly is this? You seem a fairly successful swing trader, but i cannot agree that another duster will finish CHP. You cant deny some of the fundamentals here, whilst Alea is a proven reserve.

So your looking for 12/13p? short term or long term? That would may be difficult if we hit a duster of course. You mention knowledge not in the public domain....care to elaborate?

regards

My god tfc, you really are a busy man. Not only were you never going long on CHP again, but you have closed 2 shorts instead of waiting for the 2/3p that you were forecasting. You spent 2 nights working out where support lay for CHP, when shorely as soon as trading started on day 3 there would be a completely new set of variables to consider. During the same time period you have been away in Paris. I don't doubt for one minute that you may have made a few profits on the way, but to predict CHP as you suggest you have is too uncanny. I take it, that by your own actions, you have conceeded that your forecasts last week were unrealistic.

Amities oily one , l merely calculated to the best of my ability where the mms felt both safe and secure; a balanced book and as always prepared for all eventualities .And despite massive selling pressure tue and wed they seemed most reluctant to take this below 6.5/ 7 spread no matter of how a mere minnion as me perceived it .....A bastion of support lay @ the 6.7 level . No i am still of the conviction CHP is worth no more than 3/4p as things stands/ Thats not changed but i am a market mechanic and as things stand i conceed 3/4p is temporarily unrealistic short term .But long term ,,???? No. BUT i have a very strict policy of not pissing into the wind and OI !! YOU DONT NEED A WEATHER VEIN TO KNOW WHICH WAY THE WINDS BLOWING ......as boune out by all declared late trades of shorters closing today after the bell .........Yes i am a busy man . Very busy . and have been known to stay up for the entire trading week to solve/ determine a problem dogging me and still do my work .....As written in the Chinese classic; The art of war ,,,,,,,,there lies no shame in a General withdrawing his troops from the field only to fight another day in more favourable conditions more suited to his logistic endeavours - namely when the percentages are stacked in his favour ............. Mercurial i maybe.But like the seasons i change ; but i keep in tune with them . ..b / chance @+ J Naaah its not uncanny .oooooooooooo...lol...im juste good at what i do ...........;

TFC - i know your busy 'n' all, but would you mind answering some of my queries? cheers/merci

On the other hand, why not get busier, so you don't have time to recount your breathless prose to the admiring throng on this thread. I'm interested in CHP, not TFC, if it's all the same to you .
Cheers

Stockdog,

If your interested in CHP you should be interested in his posts, they are a masterclass in share trading .

Chaco had a brilliant recovery today. People realised our current SP was trully undervalued and the buying pressure was enourmous. I expect a tick up first thing tommorrow and another day of solid buying pressure as more people take positions. The smaller PI's were shaken out and as we have seen the bigger boys have no taken positions hence , the 1m trades along with all the 500K trades etc etc we have seen over the last two days. I can see double digits next week.

I have not been a great fan of TFC - but begrudging respect from me - because despite his exagerated claims on a few occassions - he does read the market pretty well and is genarally objective in his posts. Ignore his ego - but read his analysis

I still expect a few MM games - they may well tick up early on to kid you that the recovery is on - only to drop back later in the day.

Early trading will be interesting !!

stay positive BH,

BH1910 l am of the opinion mms will do exactly that if GIVEN half a chance. MMs will be mms. Never forget that is their job.lts nothing personal.Always the $ And in a bizzarre way i admire their manipulations and games. lt takes a mercanary to know a mercanary. ,,Recently mms have absorbed a vast number of stock at the 6/7p level and unless they are collecting for CF, or another party, they will want to attract buyers to sell on any excess at a higher price . And what better way than to play the "false rally " card . The oldest tricks are always the best .For it be the doom of man that he forgets . ALWAYS !!! .So be the way of things. lncidentally i owe you an apology . Had i known you were a pensioner, and being half your age , i would never have made such inane threatining menacing remarks . l was a bit silly in hindsight. And a facet of my character of which i am not proud. And for that reason alone i apologise. And truly hope you will accept it with the same grace which i offer it.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Stockdog . Have the courage of your bloody convictions and simply filter me . lts that easy mon pote . As for my "admirable throng " .....lol ...Whats that all about then ? All i ever get is abuse and crap thrown back at me ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. . ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Robbi . l am not ignoring you. But your questions are most leading and as such worry me . . Do not forget the dealers to whom i refer have been suspended - not sacked - and should i name and shame them , and then they are re-appointed i will end up in very deep hot water aka the high court . And not for the first time . My employment is my business. And 13/14p - VERY SHORT TERM !! For it will be brief and gone before you know it ....ln saying that should CHP EVER breach the 6.25 floor i will go" short " once again . But this time i will short the F**K** r out of the sky as it will smack of the really big boys pulling out . . ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... FG .lncidentally a buy of 950k in a penny stock is not big...lol A consideration of approx 67k inc accrued costs does not remotely suggest a rally. Two swallows dont make a summer. lt is more likely to be a trader, not unlike myself , awaiting a relatively small movement , and hes out like a a shot........ . So be it . For what its worth should this even drop two ticks -0.50 -tommorow i am out ... ...........OK ?? ...............Albeit Robert Kee somewhat exposed his exxagerations , it is as Richard Littlejohn once remarked ,....." The real truth can never ever be made known. lt is stranger than any media published fact ( sic )or authors fiction. And its implications would be disasterous and would have ordinary law abiding folk rioting in the streets " / and he is right . People dont want hard copy . They want big t..ts in their paper and endless gossip coupled with the every movement of celebrity ..... im gone i have work to do and a 7.05 flight .. . .See you all ( A BIG GROAN ...lol ) next wednesday .............................We can but hope getlemen for the right outcome ....................b/ chance ................................@+ ...J

And OI !! Dont ever forget when you are rejoicing in your gains on ANY share in the market another person has lost his shirt. Thats how this game works .........So in future rememeber that ,and dont single me out as a whore ( on thiss occassion because i went short) For all who play this game are ALL the same. To a man . l know of VERY few men who havent got their price ,,,,,and it doesnt have to be money .................This is Radio Free France signining off. ,,