Thought I'd start with this gem:
November 22, 2010
ACTION
Buy
ASOS plc (ASOS.L)
Return Potential: 60%
What if? Further international expansion scenario analysis
Source of opportunity
Based on our analysis of ASOS international expansion potential, a push
into the 14 tactical markets it has identified (other European countries,
Australia, BRICs, Japan & South Korea) could generate sales of c.1.5 bn
by FY2021. Furthermore, assuming ASOS achieves c.1.0%-1.1% clothing
retail market share in the US, France and Germany and c.2% market share
in the UK (jointly generating sales of c.3.3 bn), we believe group sales
could reach c.5 bn by FY2021. This upside potential is dependent on a raft
of assumptions, but reflects our view of sustainable top quartile growth
potential for ASOS as tactical markets are promoted to strategic status.
Catalyst
We expect ASOS 3Q2011 trading update in January 2011 and an update
on the fifth strategic market mid-2011, which we believe could be China or
Russia, based on current traffic data. In Increasing price targets to reflect
sustainable growth profile (October 5), we highlighted ASOS and YOOX as
well-positioned pure-plays in a fast growing industry, with scope for
further outperformance as they continue to deliver strong sales and
earnings growth (both on GS SUSTAIN Emerging Industry Leaders List).
Valuation
We raise our sales forecasts from FY2012 to reflect an increase in targeted
international expansion outside the five strategic countries in the medium
term. Our earnings decrease marginally on higher than expected
personnel, marketing and IT costs, but we estimate ASOS earnings are
growing nearly 3x faster than top European apparel retailers like H&M and
Inditex. Our 6-month DCF-based price target is now 2000p (from 1700p).
Key risks
Downside risks include delays and operational complications from
warehouse expansion plans, competition from offline retailers expanding
internet offerings and failure to execute international expansion plans.
Well I'm looking at the downside risks, if that cheers you up, Cyners.
Whilst their trading statement due on 19 January will reflect Q3 - naturally I'd be more interested in Q4.
I've been a fan of this company for some time. But that was then.
I can only speak from my own experience with them, which is miniscule in the scheme of things, but I can't imagine that I'm alone in my ever increasing disappointment with their services.
Whilst they may have overcome delivery difficulties better than most during the whiteout in the UK because they use private couriers along the line, prevailing weather conditions worldwide will not be as kind to them (I'd have thought) notwithstanding their scramble to establish warehouses. From what I can see, they are employing a maximum of resources to take the money and get their stuff out as fast as they can, to the total detriment of their customer service when it comes to dealing with returns for whatever reason. All well and good - but sooner or later this will reflect on the bottom line - customer satisfaction.
Small wonder that John Lewis post ever better numbers. It has been suggested that footfall cannot be the reason for most other major High Street retailers' dire numbers over the holiday season when it is obviously not the case for John Lewis. Their internet range is vast, and it's a fact that there isn't one store in the country that could possibly stock the entire range. What's more, they continually monitor their competitors and match any sale prices on any day, anywhere.
Not so for ASOS. Whilst they might also be expanding their sites (sic), so do their prices.
Based on my own experience (and I've no idea how they fix their prices abroad of course) I am thinking they will be dropping out of the 'higher' end of the market, because that is where they doggedly do not match the big store or designer retailers' own prices by a furlong at least in the UK, so that ultimately they must be sitting on dead stock - because these 'offline' retailers are rising fast on the internet, coupled with excellent customer service, and I'm guessing their quarterly numbers will have soared.
Far too far too fast is my 'umble opinion, and meanwhile Aktieselkabet AF are busily building up a stake, standing presently at more than 17% of the total voting rights.
All that aside, the chart which has seen a strong uptrend for the last 9 months or so is looking a bit sticky now.
What's more, the RSI is looking increasingly bearishly divergent since its peak in September.
No idea of a timescale - but 12 quid for starters anyone?