I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

Only 8p to go then!!!

Clearly helps BA in difficult times



'Use it or lose it' threat suspended as world's biggest carrier clinches last-minute rescue

Andrew Clark and David Teather in New York
Saturday April 26, 2003
The Guardian

The European commission lent a helping hand to ailing airlines yesterday by waiving strict rules governing the use of airport slots, because of the impact

ADVERTISEMENT

of Sars and the war in Iraq.
Following a meeting of transport ministers, the commission announced it was temporarily dropping "use it or lose it" requirements which strip carriers of sought-after slots unless they use them 80% of the time.

But the change, which applies until October, angered EasyJet, which has been trying to get its hands on more landing rights at congested destinations.

An EasyJet spokesman said: "In good times, there's no way British Airways or Lufthansa are ever going to give up these slots. The only time they could be forced to allow new competitors in is during times of crisis."

The global airline industry body Iata has estimated that the industry stands to lose $8bn (5bn) this year as passengers take fright at disease, terrorism and economic uncertainty.

Worst hit recently has been Hong Kong, where Sars has prompted a 65% collapse in passenger numbers. In an attempt to stem the decline, Hong Kong's airport authority yesterday slashed its parking fees for airlines by 75% and allowed carriers to defer payments by three months.

American Airlines, the world's largest carrier appeared to have averted imminent bankruptcy last night after the three main unions agreed to fresh pay-cut deals.

The negotiations were sealed after the resignation of chief executive Don Carty late on Thursday night. Mr Carty had provoked fury among the unions after they learned of a lucrative executive compensation plan put in place shortly after agreeing to $1.8bn in cuts and job losses to keep the airline in business.

The hapless Mr Carty attempted to mend relations with the workers but it was too late to save his own job.

The union representing the airline's flight attendants agreed a sweetened offer at the eleventh hour last night. The pilots and ground workers had earlier approved the new deal, which improves potential bonuses for employees and shortens the length of the concessions by one year to five years.

Gerard Arpey, the company's president, will replace Mr Carty as chief executive. Mr Arpey, 44, has spent his entire career at American, starting out as a financial analyst in 1982.

Board member Edward Brennan will take over as chairman, a job Mr Carty had also occupied.

Fellow struggler Air Canada revealed in court documents yesterday that it was losing C$3m (1.3m) a day, with its C$450m of cash reserves steadily dwindling.

Air Canada filed for protection against its creditors three weeks ago. Its main hub is Toronto, which the World Health Organisation has advised travellers to avoid, because of the threat of Sars.

108P NEXT WEEK.

PS
fly to the Maldives with Emirates and get upgraded free to buSiness class, we BAY shareholders have been asking for this perk for years, a free upgrade i.e.
Shareholder loyalty,? hah.

Maybe one should add up to a half unit then??

ROTFLMAO @KDC

I reckon these are a trading share these days and not a long term buy and hold..best to buy around 105p and make 10% at the most..

Yes ... it's mostly a trading share at this time and that's why we are here .....

Interesting ads today on 'two free tickets - if you sleep with us'


ains

I said ten days ago buy at 108p, and thats coming next week, get onto it.

Airlines' adverts flag dirty tricks war
James Rossiter, Evening Standard
28 April 2003

DOGFIGHT between budget airline operators Ryanair and easyJet marks the beginning of a much broader dirty tricks advertising war. Legal experts in the City said the boundaries are being tested by a surge in the number and range of companies eager to attack their competitors through their advertising.


Rupert Casey, a media lawyer at City firm Macfarlanes, has seen how comparative advertising, once largely the favoured battle tactic of DIY businesses and soap sellers, has now become almost commonplace for any sector which sells direct to the consumer.


He said: 'I am taking many more calls from a range of clients asking what they can get away with and then running with a campaign even if they are running a strong risk of technically infringing someone's trademark. If it's a short newspaper campaign, that may be worth the risk as injunctions are just going to be too late.'


The budget airlines, Casey added, have become just like fast-moving consumer goods industries - the Unilever and Procter & Gamble of the airline industry. 'Getting bums on seats fast is the aim,' he said.


Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary risked the wrath of easyJet's Ray Webster last week with a series of advertisements in The Times to promote Ryanair's latest sales offers. The first ran with a slogan 'A load of old bullocks', attacking easyJet's website claim that it had the cheapest flights to Spain. Another exclaimed: 'Liar, liar, pants on fire.'


Before 1997, anyone who took out comparative advertising in this country risked infringing someone else's trademark by using their rival's product logos in their advert, whether or not the comparison was fair. A European directive changed that, and now a business can only be sued if the comparison is not 'a genuine like-for-like comparison', said Casey.


Sellers using conventional media promotions - TV, radio and print - still have their adverts vetted by the Advertising Standards Authority, a media self regulator. In response, retailers are turning to more so-called 'ambient' sales media - fliers and posters - which are the subject of much less regulation.


Associated Newspapers Ltd.

ainsoph - 09 Feb'03 - 12:44


I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.
***********************************

The dirty tricks have started then!!!!!!!!!!

Market report: Monday 14.00
Michael Clark, Evening Standard
28 April 2003

THE Sars epidemic could spell the end for some of the best-known national airlines if the virus takes hold in Europe. That was the stark warning today from US securities house Goldman Sachs as it downgraded the European airlines sector to cautious.



It says it could be 'game over' for some flag carriers. There are clear signs of them heading the way of the US majors with falling revenues and rising costs. The spread of the virus could tip some over the edge, it warns. 'Even if it doesn't, anaemic economic growth will not paper over the industry's structural problems,' warned one of its analysts. Malaysian Airlines estimates Sars has already cost it 22m in lost revenue.



If some airlines fold, it could pave the way for carriers such as Ryanair, down 10p at 419p, and British Airways, up 2 1/2p to 119p, to grab market share. Goldman continues to rate Ryanair outperform along with BA, which is reckoned to be the long-term winner in any flag carrier restructuring within the industry.






Goldman has downgraded its earnings forecast for Deutsche Lufthansa, SAS and Royal KLM Dutch Airlines. It has also lowered BA from 4.27p to 2.73p a share and predicts an overall loss of 7.98p a share in 2004.



Share prices generally traded in narrow limits, unable to glean any inspiration from Wall Street after the Dow tumbled 134 points on Friday. In thin trading, the FTSE 100 index rose 30.4 to 3900.6 at the start of a busy week in terms of economic news and company trading results.

shares going well today with good news filtering throgh and out-performing market




Andrew Clark
Monday April 28, 2003
The Guardian

British Airways is imposing a fresh round of cuts on its loss-making regional subsidiary, CitiExpress, which could include withdrawing services from several
domestic airports.
At an internal briefing last week, CitiExpress's managing director, David Evans, told staff he planned to cut 120 jobs in an attempt to squeeze out 20m of annual savings.

A "fleet and network" review is due to report back next month. Insiders believe this could recommend pulling out of more airports, following BA's recent withdrawal from Cardiff and Leeds Bradford.

Sources at the airline say that the Isle of Man is among the more vulnerable destinations. Plymouth and Newquay are under the microscope because they use Dash-8 aircraft, which BA is keen to get rid of. Services from Manchester and Birmingham airports might be also reduced.

Mr Evans declined to discuss the likely outcome of the review, saying he was "ruling nothing in and nothing out".

He said business conditions had remained tough since a first round of cuts was announced in December: "This is all part of the ongoing busi ness planning process. We'd all acknowledge that things remain very challenging - the focus on getting the business into shape remains."

A decision to withdraw from any regional airport is likely to bring political protests. Welsh politicians have expressed dismay at BA's recent cessation of services to Cardiff, attacking the airline's suggestion that travellers are able to use Bristol airport as an alternative.

Job losses at CitiExpress will largely hit support staff rather than pilots or cabin crew. The airline is looking for a 5% increase in productivity and an operating margin of 8%, urging staff to "work harder and work smarter".

The restructuring has contributed to tensions between managers and unions at CitiExpress, and BA's chief executive, Rod Eddington, met union representatives at the regional operator last week in an attempt to soothe their fears.

He agreed to appoint a third-party consultant to mediate between CitiExpress managers and the pilots' union, Balpa, which is dismayed at the level of uncertainty and job insecurity at the business.

ainsoph - 09 Feb'03 - 12:44


I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.
***********************************

The dirty tricks have started then!!!!!!!!!!,
would you really like to put your bum on a seat after KDC,

UUUUGGHHH!!!!!

Out-performing the market today @ 124p


29 Apr 2003 11:57 BST

Airlines say SARS impact now bigger than war

LONDON (Reuters) - Europe's biggest airlines are now being hit harder by the deadly SARS virus in Asia than on war-hit Middle Eastern routes, weekly traffic data has shown.
Airlines around the world have cancelled flights near Iraq in the past six weeks, but cuts are now mounting on Asian routes while some service to the Middle East resumes.

Demand for seats to the Far East and Australasia plunged 28 percent from year-ago levels in the week ending April 20, the Brussels-based Association of European Airlines said in a statement.

That was more than the 24-percent fall on routes to the Middle East, underscoring the rising impact on airlines from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which has been blamed for 331 deaths, more than a third of them in China.

In March, Middle East routes were down 34 percent versus just seven percent for Asian routes.

SARS has sparked World Health Organisation travel warnings on Toronto, Hong Kong and other parts of China, hitting carriers well beyond the affected regions as airlines in the United States and Europe also count on business and tourist traveller revenues from Asian routes and flights to Canada's financial capital.

Four of 10 seats are flying empty for European carriers serving Asia, the AEA said.

March traffic for Europe's largest carriers fell 4.5 percent, hit by war in Iraq and SARS, but the fall was cushioned as year-ago traffic was also weak.

"Hostilities began on the 20th of the month, although the market had been weakening before that date, in evident anticipation of the conflict," it said.

The 30-member AEA represents about 90 percent of scheduled flights in Europe. It includes top carriers British Airways BAY.L and Air France AIRF.PA but not low-fare airlines Ryanair RYA.I or easyJet EZJ.L .

flown with BAY a couple of times in the past few months. ok but no more. it's all about price and maintaining slots/good reliability for their short haul/euro business now. i dont think the brand's worth much

would you really like to put your bum on a seat after KDC,

irritating little peeps


Branson denied Concorde information
By Michael Harrison, Business Editor Indy
30 April 2003


British Airways rejected renewed demands from Sir Richard Branson yesterday for access to financial information about Concorde so he could decide whether to keep the supersonic aircraft in service when BA retires its fleet this October.

BA also denied a claim by the Virgin Atlantic chairman that it had offered to sell one of its seven Concordes to a well-known British composer for a "nominal fee" provided it was not used in competition.

Sir Richard, who has offered to buy Concorde from BA for the 1 it paid for the fleet, wrote yesterday to the BA chairman Lord Marshall of Knightsbridge saying he found the airline's attitude "totally baffling" and asking for a copy of the latest audited financial statement it had provided to the Government.

"If BA wants to stop flying Concorde, that's its commercial decision. I have no problem with that," he said. "But in the circumstances, why should that stop someone else from having a go at keeping this beautiful aircraft in the air? With Virgin Atlantic's lower costs and marketing flair there must be a good chance we could make a go of it, even if BA can't."

Lord Marshall responded by saying that an in-depth review of Concorde, carried out with its manufacturer, Airbus, had concluded there was "no realistic prospect" of continuing services beyond this October "whether by us or any other operator". He also maintained that BA had paid the manufacturers 155m for Concorde and had invested a further 1bn in the service since 1976.

Lord Marshall added that the 1980 agreement whereby it provided the Government with an annual audited statement of Concorde's operations had ended in 1984 with the payment of 16.5m for the remaining spares inve

May 02, 2003

CitiExpress faces more cost-cutting
By Russell Hotten TIMES



BRITISH Airways will today announce another round of cost-cutting at CitiExpress, its regional subsidiary, where pilots had threatened to strike.
CitiExpress, which has already gone through a restructuring, wants to save another 20 million, including 7 million this year.

David Evans, the managing director of CitiExpress, described the cost savings as critical to the airlines future. In a statement to staff he said that doing nothing is not an option. He said: The future of our regional operations is in our own hands, and we have to reduce our cost base immediately to avoid incurring losses.

CitiExpress, formed from the merger of short-haul airlines, was restructured in an overhaul of BAs operations after a big fall in business. BA has brought forward by six months a plan to save 450 million by next March.

About 21 routes have already been cut, along with bases at Cardiff and Leeds-Bradford airports. However, CitiExpress has begun services from Londons City Airport.

i booked flights with Virgin upper class to SF on line and received around 500
discount each person from the regular price, I have to admit that BAY first class is superior but so is the price ,big time.
BAY are going to have to rethink their charges PDQ if they are going back as a world beater.

Friday May 2, 04:21 PM






U.S. stocks jump 1 percent; airline shares fly
(Updates with extended gains)

NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - Stocks jumped more than 1 percent on Friday as investors bet the U.S. economy will gather steam later in the year and a bullish investment call sent airline shares like AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR - news) . soaring.

"People are saying in the next six months the market has got to pick up," said Todd Leone, head of listed trading at S.G. Cowen. "The war is over, and there is no bad news on the horizon."

The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average climbed 92 points, or 1.09 percent, to 8,546. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 9 points, or 1.08 percent, to 926. The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 22 points, or 1.53 percent, to 1,495.

The U.S. economy shed jobs for the third straight month in April and the unemployment rate hit a 4-month high at 6 percent, according to a report before the open. But separate data showed orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose by a larger-than-expected 2.2 percent in March, their best showing since July 2002.

Airline stocks rallied after Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER - news) said the worst may be over for the industry. AMR surged 89 cents, or 18.5 percent, to $5.70. Northwest Airlines Corp (NASDAQ: NWAC - news) . leaped $1.70, or 19.7 percent, to $10.25. Continental Airlines Inc (NYSE: CAL - news) . jumped $2.14, or 21.7 percent, to $12. Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL - news) Inc. rallied $1.86, or 14.3 percent, to $14.86.

note the comments on traditional airlines






Warning sends EasyJet into a dive

Neil Hume
Saturday May 3, 2003
The Guardian

EasyJet shares dived to their lowest level since its flotation in November 2000 yesterday, as another leading broker turned negative on the no-frills

airline and gave warning that next week's interim figures will disappoint.
The pre-results jitters first started to undermine EasyJet's share price late last week after UBS Warburg, one of the company's two brokers, slashed its earnings forecast by a staggering 37%. It cited concerns that EasyJet has been forced to keep on cutting fares because of stiff competition from second-tier traditional and charter carriers, many of which had been expected to go bust.

Since then the shares, which came to the market at 310p, have continued to lose altitude despite a vague bid story doing the rounds on Thursday. Yesterday, they lost a further 11.5p to 173.5p - the biggest fall in the FTSE 250 - after US investment bank Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating to "equalweight" from "overweight" and advised clients to switch into rival Ryanair, up 2.5p to 422.5p. "We have come to the conclusion that EasyJet's business case has weakened to such a degree that it makes it impossible for us to maintain a positive view on the shares," it said. "The surprising endurance of the traditional carriers puts the longer term market opportunities for low cost carriers with focus on hubs in doubt," Morgan Stanley continued.

With prices on these routes likely to remain competitive - yesterday Swiss launched a new regional airline called Swiss Express - Morgan Stanley suspects that profit forecasts for EasyJet will be scaled back when the results are released on Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the sector, things were rather brighter. British Airways climbed 10.5p to 135p after Merrill Lynch said the worst was over for the airline industry and Citigroup Smith Barney upgrading its rating to "outperform". Citigroup reckons BA is the best play on a return to normal political and economic conditions.

In the wider market, leading shares recouped all of Thursday's losses and 30 points more for good measure. As usual London was lifted by a strong showing in New York, where indices stormed higher on the back of an employment report that, although weak, was better than most investors had expected.

The final scores showed the FTSE 100 ahead 72.5 points at 3,952.6, taking its gains over the week to 82.4 points. Glaxo-SmithKline , up 57p to 13.32, BT , 7.5p higher at 182.5p, and Reuters , 8.5p better at 138.5p, spearheaded the advance.

Elsewhere, the FTSE 250 rose 42 to 4,416.9, while the FTSE Small Cap index added 20.8 to finish at 1,858.2. Despite the looming bank holiday weekend, trading volumes were good with more than 2.2bn shares changing hands.

In the bond market, gilts fell as investors took profits after two days of gains. The benchmark 10-year gilt fell to 104.790, pushing the yield up to 4.46%.

Back among the blue chips, BAE Systems , off 0.5p to 124p, bucked the strong market trend after secretive stockbroker Cazenove downgraded its rating on Europe's leading defence contractor to "reduce" from "hold" citing cashflow concerns. Cazenove estimates net debt will balloon to 1bn by the end of 2004 if BAE fails to secure a major export order within the next year. Given that BAE has struggled to secure such deals in recent years, Cazenove reckons investors would be better off reducing their holdings.

Profit taking after its recent speculative run saw drinks group Allied Domecq ease 5.25p to 357p. However, market professionals still reckon a bid is on the way.

Lower down the corporate ladder, Westbury , up 11.5p to 321p, was in demand as bid speculation swirled round the west country housebuilder.

Lastminute.com , the online travel agent, improved 9p to 107.75p as the London market had its first chance to react to better than expected figures from USA Interactive, the owner of online travel company Expedia. On Thursday night, USA Interactive shares gained 10% after it revealed bookings had recovered in the later part of April. Meanwhile, property group Shaftesbury gained 1p to 163p after Merrill Lynch cleared a large overhang of shares.

Among the small caps, Holmes Place , the upmarket health and fitness club operator, extended its losses since Wednesday's dreadful full year figures to 25%. Yesterday's damage was done by speculation that venture capital groups Bridgepoint and Permira have made an offer of just 18p-a-share for Holmes Place, which is still in discussions with its banks about securing a new lending facility. The shares fell 5.25p to 27.75p.

On a brighter note GW Pharmaceuticals , the medicines from cannabis company, climbed to a record high of 207.5p, up 10p, as momentum investors chased the stock higher and amid speculation that GW is close to signing a pan-marketing and distribution deal for its multiple sclerosis treatment. According to market gossips the name in the frame is German drug maker Bayer.

Elsewhere, European Colour advanced 3p to 24p after Jarvis Porter , the cash shell that recently acquired Aim-listed Darby Group, increased its stake in the pigments group to 29.73% - just below the 30% threshold at which it would have to make a bid for the company.