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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

skyhigh - 14 Sep 2005 16:32 - 319 of 1009

It's pants !

daves dazzlers - 15 Sep 2005 16:13 - 320 of 1009

Come on ,, come on just a little bit more.

daves dazzlers - 19 Sep 2005 16:05 - 321 of 1009

In at just under 26.

tonewood - 19 Sep 2005 16:55 - 322 of 1009

Well done DD. I've held these shares for sometime and have followed your comments with interest finally to see you have your in price. You must be a lesson to us all.

daves dazzlers - 19 Sep 2005 17:17 - 323 of 1009

I dont no about that tonewood,just got lucky..

daves dazzlers - 19 Sep 2005 17:17 - 324 of 1009

With the price..

daves dazzlers - 20 Sep 2005 13:00 - 325 of 1009

Happydays are here again,well looks like this is the basement,deep sigh of relief..

daves dazzlers - 21 Sep 2005 11:08 - 326 of 1009

First 4%.

skyhigh - 29 Sep 2005 09:23 - 327 of 1009

Looks like the basement is deeper than originally thought..
Nobody likes RTD anymore, it keeps going down ! Why ? what's going on ?

Douggie - 29 Sep 2005 10:54 - 328 of 1009

Mourning All... ;-/

daves dazzlers.........long groan of agony :o[

Fred1new - 29 Sep 2005 11:50 - 329 of 1009

Morning all and Douggie

My computer is grinding to a stop. ???

Seems I have fixed it. Wish I could say the same about RTD.

Have earnings kicked in from the below?


**********

Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.

Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology.

The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales.

Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
**************


Surely this should add to the Earnings potential over the next few years or am I missing something.

Fundamentalist - 29 Sep 2005 11:56 - 330 of 1009

Fred et al

FWIW i think a lot of people were disappointed in the lack of growth indicated in the interims and hence most of the forward looking is not in the price as people are waiting to see evidence that RTD can translate a growth in opportunites/transactions into revenue/profit (and that the growth in CNP will be gretaer than the decline in CP).

That said at a share price of 25p, with a conservative EPS f/c for the yr of 1.7p, the company is effectively trading on a PE of 15 for the fuel card business with the fraud side thrown in for free. Starting to look cheap to me and will look to re-enter when the chart manages to find some support (if 24p doesnt hold next chart support is at 20p imo) . The price looks to be a lot cheaper than the sum of the parts (if you were interested in buying the fraud business you could effectively buy the company then sell off the fuel card business and recoup most of what you paid)

Fred1new - 29 Sep 2005 15:00 - 331 of 1009

F. I think you are correct. I think i will wait around a little longer. But I am annoyed I didn't jump earlier. But would I have rebought a 25p. I think so. But a little good financial news would be a little nit of relief.

Fundamentalist - 29 Sep 2005 15:14 - 332 of 1009

Fred

glad i sold higher up but the chart just doesnt convince me to re-enter currently. I cant see this being driven higher without contract news or a bullish trading statement (and the interims make the latter far less likely this yr)

skyhigh - 30 Sep 2005 12:05 - 333 of 1009

I'm speechless ! what a load of rubbish this is turning out to be !
Same with most my other holdings... mostly red.... been a bad week.

Fundamentalist - 30 Sep 2005 12:14 - 334 of 1009

Have to start wondering whether there is something going on here retail investors are not privy to or is it simply being shorted/walked down. Still watching for support to be found in the price

capetown - 30 Sep 2005 12:17 - 335 of 1009

Hi FUNDY,do you thnk this will go down as far as 16p?

Fundamentalist - 30 Sep 2005 12:21 - 336 of 1009

capetown

i have no idea where this will go to be honest. I think they have already dropped below fair value based on the knowledge that is publicly available. However, shares often overshoot in either direction (especially in BB hot shares). Remember last time this was around 16p was when the cybersource suit was the big worry - is there more news coming on this?

Douggie - 30 Sep 2005 12:21 - 337 of 1009

bit late in the day......but ....

MOURNING ALL gutted but serves me right.......:o[[[[[[[[

capetown - 30 Sep 2005 12:26 - 338 of 1009

Just wondering if that is where its heading and i am keen to get back in<
I would HOLD if i was still in the stock though,
Yesterday look how SEO went down for NO reason and nows its back up!!
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