markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
eddieshare
- 19 Nov 2004 20:52
- 321 of 6492
Mitzy
Don't see Des going near 0.40p, only bad news could take it to 0.40p. It's good news were waiting for, so up is the direction of DES!
Anyone else with thoughts?
Good Luck All
Eddie
SALKELDJP
- 19 Nov 2004 20:55
- 322 of 6492
I would recommend fellow investors having a look at the DES BB there. Some very good information, debate and thoughts being posted.
For what its worth I thought I would copy my comments I posted on iii BB earlier today:
I hope you will forgive me if this information has previously been posted. As we begin the wait for further news from Desire, (and top-up as we go!) I decided to do a little general research. Perhaps new investors may find this background information useful. With FOGL recently floating, Desires recent annoucement and then the advertisement in the Shares magazine this week for a prospectus on Falklands Gold & Minerals, this backwater is rapidly coming to the fore!
I had a look at http://www.bgs.ac.uk/programmes/landres/csm/pmg_f alk2.htm which gives a overview of the licences and previous drilling and charts etc. An important point is also made about the potential environmental impact of oil extraction. I wont post the whole article but a couple of points struck me reading through it:
1) 6 wells drilled in North Falkland Basin - 5 with shows, one with oil recovered to surface.
2) Significant levels of gas were also recorded in some wells.
3) These source rocks are of world-class quality.
4) Up to 60 billion barrels of oil may have been generated in the basin. This figure is based on the source rock pyrolysis data obtained from the wells, and assumes a 400 m thick mature interval at the base of the source succession, extending over an area of 40 km by 40 km. However, even when the calculations are based on much more conservative figures for the thickness and extent of the mature source and the richness and generative potential of the kerogens, significant amounts of expulsion are also calculated. For example, a 200 m thick mature zone, over an area of 35 km by 12 km, may have expelled over 11.5 billion barrels of oil, even at oil yields of 8 kg HC/tonne, which are towards the low end of those observed by rock-eval pyrolysis for this basin.
Also looked at http://www.falklands-oil.com where the following succint points are made (I suppose you would expect them to say some of this!):
The Falkland Islands are:
1. A British Overseas Territory;
2. Self-governing;
3. An easy place to do business.
Petroleum summary:
1. This is a petroleum province in its infancy;
2. There are several under-explored and undrilled basins;
3. We have a world-class source rock;
4. Several working petroleum systems have been proven;
5. Only 6 wells all in very small area all tested same play;
6. Live oil has been recovered to surface;
7. There are numerous undrilled targets > 200 MM bbls;
8. We have top quartile fiscal terms;
9. New licences and farm-ins are available;
10. We promote easy data access;
11. There are benign drilling conditions.
Onshore Minerals summary:
1. Exploration is underway for gold and diamonds;
2. Promising indicators have been found in stream and sediment samples;
3. Progress is being made towards exploitation.
Despite all that detractors may say, I dont think anyone would dispute the facts that the oil potential off the Falklands is huge, world demand is currently insatiable and the price of oil high. Whether Desire Petroleum is worth 30m or 100m, someone is going to get that oil and Desire currently holds some of the licences. Thats what makes DES a Must Have for long-term investors and next year will be very interesting. I wonder what the Islanders make of all this? Life is going to change very significantly for them in the not too distant future.
Perhaps its time to invest in a Buy-to-Let property in Port Stanley as well!?
Mitzy - Have you any reason to expect news next week? It would be nice but this would be earlier than "we" anticipated - just wondered if you have any indications of this.
Good weekend all!
markymar
- 19 Nov 2004 21:16
- 323 of 6492
Also i would like to put a post on this board from oil brat who posted this on iii tonight and think one of the best post i have read and agree with this post 100%
OIL BRATS POST
Whats this talk of a sliding oil price??? The current price is still a record compared to any other year, (possibly not if you adjust the 81 spike for inflation). Anyway you look at it is very high.
The majors will be taking five year plus views of a prospect not and intra week look. The oil price is over the profit margin for the Falklands and has been for the last few years. There are two types of drilling for the majors. Development drilling to harness the reserves they have already booked, ie increased daily field out put. The other type is exploration drilling to find new bookable reserves.
We have been using approximately 4 barrels of oil for every 1 barrel we find, (verses time), since the late 70s. Well guess what, that cant continue indefinitely, especially with the methods used to calculate reserves coming under question, (Shells recent debacle, five times no less!!). There has been very little drilling in the exploration sector in the last two to three years, but in the last six months we have seen that start to reverse. However the development drilling has been bonkers over the last nine months. Everyone is very busy and service companies are turning down work. This will have the short term effect of increasing production and lowering the oil price, but I dont see it crashing the oil price. In a couple of years when the production curve from the wells being drilled now has quartered we will be in the same boat but with less proven reserves.
One other point has world demand peaked, not a chance. It will be more next year and the year after. We are very close to the Hubbard Peak, (if you dont know what that is search for it on the net, if it doesnt scare you then you are either a billionaire or in your late nineties). Getting bookable reserves are a must for the majors, especially Shell.
Is Desire worth 100m market cap? No its not, its tangible assets are worth a ballpark figure of 15m, which is what Id expect someone to pay for the data they have and the earth model / interpretation, and youd have to throw a little on for the acreage. That is a liquidation price. If they have a find then they are worth several possibly even many billions. I know Ill get grief for that comment but it is roughly true. Find one, youll find more, in this scenario. Find one 400m bbls recoverable field and youll find a 3000m bbls plus recoverable province. Currently they are worth 10-15p but their potential is in the 40 quid mark may be more. So its a balance. I am 95+ % certain that there is oil down there, they found oil last time and the necessary traps and reservoirs they just didnt find them in conjunction, eventually they or someone else will. To me its geologically inconceivable that there are not oil fields down there, based on the data Ive seen from the 98 campaign. Its possible that there will not be a find on the next drilling campaign or the one after that, but they will find it eventually. If a rig was on location to start drilling tomorrow we would see the price at 150-200p, (again no pound sign on the damn yankee keyboard), as that will happen eventually they are worth somewhere between 15p and 40,000p. Currently we are at 50p with the near term hope that it will be 200p. Id think somewhere nearer 100p would be not unreasonable right now.
eddieshare
- 19 Nov 2004 21:29
- 324 of 6492
Hi all
Well thanks for that SALKELDJP. It makes some interesting reading, anything else on your news board you might want to share with us?
Good Luck All
Eddie
eddieshare
- 19 Nov 2004 21:33
- 325 of 6492
Hi All
Thanks MARKYMAR. Your input is appreciated! MARKYMAR are you sure you didn't hold down the zero key 15p to 40,000p seems quite a big jump? So more thinkers than I thought.
Good Luck All
Eddie
berlingo
- 19 Nov 2004 23:55
- 327 of 6492
Thanks for the postings everyone. Very Interesting . Please keep news , info coming .
Good luck next week everyone
Berlingo
mitzy
- 20 Nov 2004 08:13
- 328 of 6492
I am predicting an oil price of up to $80 a barrel by end 2005 and no slide in the short term out look..all bodes well for oil explorers and DES in particular.
eddieshare
- 20 Nov 2004 15:20
- 329 of 6492
Hi all
Just added a 0 to my portfolio. I feel much better! Thanks MARKYMAR it's good for me. Thanks for all your input. Seems like we think next week will be better.
Any more thoughts?
Good Luck All
Eddie
mitzy
- 22 Nov 2004 11:43
- 331 of 6492
Well done to Shares rag for pointing this one out at 33p in July.. they siad it could rise to 400p if they get a farm-out partner..
markymar
- 22 Nov 2004 13:15
- 332 of 6492
Taken from MONEYWEEK:
Beneath these tiny islands in the South Atlantic ocean lies 60 billion barrels of oil
Enough to put them in the worlds top 10 oil nations, and turn the population into millionaires
Is this why Argentina really invaded the Falkland Islands?
With oil hitting $50 a barrel, North Sea supplies dwindling and the Middle East in crisis this is the ace up Britains sleeve!
You could see gains of 300% to 1,400% from the company poised to profit when the oil bonanza sends Falklands property prices sky-high!
Dear Investor,
Imagine if youd invested in the United Arab Emirates or Kuwait before they struck oil
Overnight, these countries turned into the worlds wealthiest as oil brought status, power and billions of dollars worth of investment.
But this is the extraordinary position you may find yourself in today.
Deep in the South Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of the Falklands, lies 60bn barrels of untapped oil. According to the US Department of Energy this is a world-class resource enough to turn these British islands into "the new Kuwait" (The Times) and spark a South Atlantic oil bonanza (The Observer).
Theres been barely a word written about this in the media since 1996 but when the oil starts pumping, the Falklands will become one of the wealthiest oil regions in the world above Nigeria, Venezuela and even Russia! Oil workers and wealthy contractors will pour onto the island, skyrocketing land prices and property prices. Money will flow into roads, housing, shops, farms, fishing and redevelopment.
There is only one pure Falkland Island investment play available right now and, in this letter, I am going to show you how you could profit from it!
The company controls almost every aspect of the islands economy, and even a stake in the conglomerate that will pump the oil. Investors who get in now could see gains of as much as 300% to 1,400% in the next eighteen months.
The oil opportunity of the century?
Since the Argentinian invasion in 1982, the Falklands have been the heavily guarded jewels of the British Empire our most expensive and heavily fortified outpost since we sent 12,000 servicemen to defend the islands from Argentine invasion in 1982, with loss of nearly 300 British lives and over 1000 Argentinians.
But why all this fuss over sheep-covered islands that some of Thatchers cabinet allegedly couldnt find on a map?
In the mid 1970s, American geologists discovered oil off the coast of the islands enough oil to turn the Falklands from a grassy South Atlantic outpost into a prize comparable to the oil reserves of the United Arab Emirates!
Take a look at this chart. It shows that the Falklands could be one of the 10 largest oil regions in the world. As you can see, it lies just behind the United Arab Emirates and above Russia.
Rank Country Proven oil reserves (2003, in billion barrels)
1.
Saudi Arabia 261.6
2.
Iraq 115.0
3.
Iran 100.1
4.
Kuwait 98.9
5.
United Arab Emirates 63.0
*6.
Falklands Islands 60.0
7.
Russia 58.8
8.
Venezuela 53.1
9.
Nigeria 32.0
10.
Libya 30.0
*estimated reserve
Sources: US Department of Energy, British Geological Survey
Back in 1982, Argentina claimed that oil wasnt a reason for their invasion. Yet only three days after they invaded, an adviser to the US Department of Energy, Dr Lawrence Goldmuntz, told the press that the islands were a world-class potential resource. General Galtieri, leader of the Argentinian junta, was obviously aware of this because he was already trying to sell drilling concessions for the island.
As was Mrs Thatcher, who told of her determination to rebuild, rehabilitate and develop the islands and increase the settler population. Not with Argentinians, she said, but others who would develop the Falklands' offshore oil and fishing resources.
The fight was on for the new Kuwait.
So why hasnt the oil been pumped yet?
Youd think the drilling would have begun a few years after we won back the islands. But in the 1980s and early 1990s, the story goes cold
During this time, Middle Eastern oil was cheap and plentiful, so nobody saw reason to pursue the far-flung, and relatively costly, Falklands oil potential.
The buzz returned in 1993, when geologist Phil Richards said that there was not only enough oil around the islands to match the North Sea reserves, but even a chance of finding a giant field comparable to the mega-sized fields of the Middle East.
The Times dubbed the Falklands, the new Kuwait. The Observer predicted a South Atlantic oil bonanza (27 March 1994.) And oil magazine, Offshore, claimed that the Falklands could become one of the biggest production areas of the next decade. In the wake of the hype, over 60 oil companies clamoured for a piece of the Falklands pie.
But in 1996 oil prices had hit record lows so, again, these companies abandoned their search for suitable drilling sites.
Now things have changed dramatically. With oil hitting $50 a barrel, sabotaged pipelines in Iraq and doubts over Saudi Arabias reliability, our old sources of cheap black gold have become unstable. This is why the Falklands are now the ace up Britains sleeve.
Yet since the mid-90s, the mainstream media appear to have forgotten about them entirely.
But YOU can profit from the ignorance of the crowd
Today Id like to send you full details on one of the best ways you can invest in the Falkland Islands without risking a penny of your subscription fee Plus the lowdown on another oil play on the Falklands that you cant get into yet but be ready for it to float on the market soon the gains will be monstrous!
Once this story hits the mainstream press in the next six months, these shares are going to be scarce on the ground and expensive to buy so its crucial you ACT NOW.
First off, the AIM-listed company I will tell you about who owns a 28% stake in the oil conglomerate that will pump the oil. To give an idea of how lucrative this will be, let me tell you about one of the companies that owns the drilling rights. It bought a stake in an oil licence in Mauritania back in January. Six months after the oil was found it sold its stake for 300% profit.
In fact, placing bets on undervalued oil areas like this has helped the company grow from $4m market cap to its current $1.2bn in just seven years. So if IT is involved in the drilling rights for the Falklands, you know youre onto a winner.
But this investment is about more than pure oil
The company I want to show today has more than just a stake in the oil profits. It also owns a major chunk of the Falkland Islands themselves the shopping complex, houses and flats in Stanley, the slaughterhouse and hundreds of acres of red-hot development land.
And how will this make the company money? Well, when the money starts rolling in from oil production, the islanders will become extraordinarily wealthy. In the 1990s, The Times estimated each islander could get 16m over the life-span of the oil projects. But this estimate was made when oil was trading at $18 per barrel not over $40!
With over 60bn barrels of oil and only 1,800 people, never before in history has so much potential oil wealth been spread among so few people. As a previous Falklands governor once told Reuters, his people could easily become mega-rich.
Land prices and property prices will skyrocket even before drilling begins. Added to this, the contractors and new settlers who come pouring onto the islands will drive prices up further.
Look at it this way. A single 4.50 share in this company right now would get you 0.24m2 of Port Stanley land. But in a land where everyone has become a millionaire, how much would land in the capital be worth? Maybe 100 per square metre, or 200? Probably substantially higher.
See the potential? Landowners could be looking at 300% to 1,400% gains. So just think what you will be making if you invest in the company that owns the land! Today you can access all their details plus how to get in first on that pure Falklands oil play I mentioned earlier. (Please remember that the past is no guide to future performance.)
bradley007
- 23 Nov 2004 15:57
- 333 of 6492
Looking at some of the trades today... if I was a betting man, you
understand, I would not be surprised if there was an announcement
shortly... seems odd.. large buy trades in a down market... decidedly
fishy....
hampi_man
- 23 Nov 2004 15:59
- 334 of 6492
Well lets hope it the black stuff and not fish they produce
watcher
- 23 Nov 2004 16:28
- 335 of 6492
would it be fair to say that some big fish swim around waiting for DES to publish their findings and then get stuck into negotiations thus shoulder barging the enemy out of the way but ask DES to keep a lid on things. Might just suit DES to get approached and keep the all the big fish at the table.
any thoughts.
watcher
eddieshare
- 23 Nov 2004 21:09
- 336 of 6492
piston broke
- 24 Nov 2004 07:01
- 337 of 6492
markymar.....not in anyway knocking either Desire Petroleum or yourself but I believe you are referring to wrong company...your post above refers to quote 'there is only one only pure Falkland Island Inestment available now'...Desire are NOT pure Falklands Island Investment as they are involved in other projects throughout world..that pure investment is FOGL
Similarly the doc refers to a company that has a 28% holding and will be coming to AIM in next month.... that one I believe is Global Petroleum who have a 28% holding of the pure Falkland Islands Investment FOGL
Similarly document refers to 'this company will increase in value as everything gains from the Oil Investment in Falklands including licences and property'...again this company is I believe FOGL
FOGL have appointed DES to do siezmic drilling etc etc and I do belive that DES are a good bet AND GOOD LUCK. however I am almost certain that this document refers to FOGL.
Go into FOGL on Google and have a read it makes for very interesting reading.
Finally when this document came out which was about 2 weeks ago, FOGL were on the up immediately. DES only went on the up a couple of days later when they announced fantastic oil discoveries as part of this project. Since then DES and FOGL have gone up almost hand in hand
ANY VIEW ANYONE
markymar
- 24 Nov 2004 09:22
- 338 of 6492
Yes i new that when posted it but it was to show that the PR machine in action and if they think that FOGL is a good bet then Desire are at least 2 years in front of FOGL and thank you for your post.
Picked this up of oil barrel today maybe some thing or nothing.
"The company has about C$20 million in the bank and is looking to use those funds to acquire further producing assets in Argentina. Exploration drilling is also on the cards for 2005. Greer said Antrim is very comfortable investing in the country, which is now picking itself up after the financial meltdown of 2001. "
..............................................................
24.11.2004
Antrim Targets The UK North Sea And Sees Further Opportunities In Argentina
Antrim Energy plans to open an office in the UK next year, underlining its commitment to growing its presence in the country. The company has built up a portfolio of interests in the North Sea, seeing plenty of scope for both development and exploration opportunities in this maturing oil and gas province. As well as picking up acreage in the UKs 21st and 22nd offshore licensing rounds, the Calgary-headquartered firm has built up a majority stake in block 211/22a: in June it acquired ConocoPhillips 18.4 per cent interest in the Osprey Ridge block and earlier this month bought out Marabenis 39.2 per cent stake. The remaining equity holders in the block are Italian energy giant Eni and Canadas CNR International.
After spending that amount of time and money, we are very keen to drill a well as soon as we can, which is likely to be sometime next year, chief executive Stephen Greer told oilbarrel.com. The well is a relatively low risk prospect - more of a development play than anything else in Greers words - which offsets two discovery wells, the most significant of which is well 22a-3, which tested oil from three zones when it was drilled in 1984 at a cumulative rate of more than 6,000 barrels per day. An earlier well, 22a-1, drilled in 1976, flowed more than 1,200 bpd. The block lies between the producing Cormorant and Dunlin oilfields, which to date have produced over 400 and 380 million barrels of oil respectively.
This is changing our risk profile a little bit, said Greer. It offsets established oil tests so it isnt wildcat exploration like our well in Australia, and even there we farmed out because it was too risky and costly for us.
That well, the South Galapagos-1 on Australias North West Shelf, proved a duster, vindicating Antrims decision to farm out so that 80 per cent of the costs were carried by new partner ONGC Videsh Limited.
We are now absorbing the information and that will probably take us until the end of the first quarter, said Greer. Well meet with our partners, gather everyones opinions and then make decisions about the future of the permit.
The companys Australian permits, WA-306-P and WA-307-P, which together span some 2 million acres and include an 80 km prospect trend, are not write-offs on the back of one duster. As Greer pointed out, South Galapagos-1 didnt test a larger Triassic target, a formation that has generated significant amounts of gas elsewhere on the North West Shelf. There are other targets on those two permits, he said.
Antrims risk profile is also moderated by the cash it generates from its Puesto Guardian field in Argentina. A workover programme initiated in September has proved successful to date, with each well averaging about 100 bpd in incremental volumes. These are very cheap operations and they pay out within a month, so its very valuable for us, said Greer.
The company has about C$20 million in the bank and is looking to use those funds to acquire further producing assets in Argentina. Exploration drilling is also on the cards for 2005. Greer said Antrim is very comfortable investing in the country, which is now picking itself up after the financial meltdown of 2001.
A couple of years ago everyone was running for the exit but now everythings calmed down, said Greer. There are supplemental taxes which mean we dont get the full WTI price but we still get a healthy percentage of it and were quite happy with that. We definitely think its worth investing there.
ANY THOUGHTS WITH THE TOP BIT ?
eddieshare
- 27 Nov 2004 08:44
- 339 of 6492
eddieshare
- 27 Nov 2004 09:02
- 340 of 6492
Hi All
Looks like were sitting on the fence at the moment. Des seems to have a problem with the 0.55p area. This might be because it was the high of Nov 99. Which might have spooked some investors. But anyway support is still at about 0.49p, which isn't that far off. The longer DES sits at this level the better the support. As we can see DES tried to recover twice at about 0.43p but failed, so third time lucky as they say! Another week gone past, just means an anouncment is getting nearer.
Anyone any input?
Good Luck All
Eddie