< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

cyril - if you have ST on line, please can you do me a favour and c+p the article on Flybe on the relevant thread

Sorry no can do,just a C&P from around the various boards.

OIL price - The biggest one day rise last Friday

Why Oil Prices Jumped 8% on Friday
By Paul Ausick January 31, 2015 8:35 am EST

Looking at the chart for the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for Friday, January 30, we see the closest thing we have seen in months to the much-loved “hockey-stick” profile. The price of WTI was up about 1.7% on the day at around noon. By 4 o’clock it was up 7%, after touching a top of 8% in the mid-afternoon. Did the Saudis stop pumping crude? Did Tesla go out of business?

Nope. The spike to a settlement price of more than $48 a barrel is a bet on the future primarily based on the number of oil rigs that were idled last week. We noted Friday that the U.S. oil drilling rig count fell by 94 in the week ended Friday, and the total number of rigs looking for oil in the United States now stands at 1,223. The number will get smaller.

According to oil industry research firm RBN Energy, the rig count at more than a dozen onshore drilling companies will drop by a total of 42% in 2015, from a total of 221 in 2014 to a total of 128. All these companies operate primarily in shale plays, and combined they are expected to spend 28% less on capital projects in 2015 than they spent in 2014.

Big rise this morning.

the buying does not look to be very strongly based, but i wouldn't be tempted to short at this level either - not enough to go for

Mr Cynic
I would not short anything just now - with all this EU turmoil.
Except Fresnillo is a share I watch and short perhaps as silver may
reflect a weak gold price.
Copper is the lowest it has been for years and probably also iron ore.
I suspect the Saudi's may cut back the pumping of more oil, without
actually saying so, and try to find a balance just below shale oil costs.
The rest of the middle east and Russia are anxious to see an oil price rise.
All it needs is Islamic State or some other crazy group to damage some
pipelines etc and hell could be let out of a bag !
Generally not a calm climate for serious shorting I think.
Keep your money in your pocket for a while longer
Personally I think Afren will come right eventually, but perhaps not back to 160p levels.
Afren could sell interests in Iraq probably to Hunt oil.or even sell Madagascar oil finds.
I think that Afren is not out of play yet, and still has a promising future.
Who knows in these turbulent days ???
I am longer than I was before ..... ha ha

AFTER THE NORMAL PROFIT TAKING

now is back to 8p

I thought it might rebound......the most incredible thing is that this company might survive as a sole entity....with large debt perhaps.....what I'm wondering is this US shale oil ?...is that going to last ?....or is it just for a couple of years before big imports resume sending crude up again ?....if that was the case Afren would benefit greatly.....

AFR sells at Brent price
today there was some earlier profit taking low $51.40 after the sharp spike late last Friday but now is bouncing back strongly to $52.50

------------------ Intraday Brent Oil ----------------------------------------- 2 month ---------------

required field
We are seeing a repeat of what happened in the 1980's.
Oil price was high and a couple of Australian companies shares went sky high as they had large oil shale deposits - I think it was Central Pacific, and Southern Pacific Petroleum.
I bough into one of them only to see the price of oil unexpectedly fall back, and the economics of oil from shale was dashed.
What is the lesson I guess- ?
1 The world is not short of oil from shale or otherwise
2 Oil has a false market which is controlled / rigged by the Saudi's

Thanks for that Rekirkham....it's just that I'm finding it hard to believe that crude is going to remain as low as it is....it might drop further...(hope not).....but a rebound back to above $60 or so is not out of the question in my view....it's not getting any better In Ukraine...

If any oil problems arise in Saudi, then the world will certainly know about it.

How stable is the place now they have a new king, and this Sunni / Shia religious thing continues. Never mind about Catholics and Protestants that will seem like childs'play.

My motto is - Be Optimistic and Strong ................ ha ha ha

Aramco - is at Ras Tanura, near Dammam, Saudi.
They even had rocket launchers around the refinery some twenty years back.
Oil is a high risk game.

US crude (WTL) has also bounced today to $49.50, but that is something of an aside

Why would Saudi cut production?
There's certainly no sign of that from where we're sitting

For sure crude will find it's own level again - my totally arbitrary level says ~$60 - as supply and demand reach equilibrium, but i do not believe that will happen until mid or even late in the year

As for AFR, I'll stand by my prediction that, as far as PIs are concerned, this is a dead duck .... but then i do not currently have money married to mouth

Cynic

You write "Crude has also bounced ...of an aside. "
Reason - US oil rigs taken out of production last month at record levels.

You write "Why would Saudi cut production"
They have done before, but usually to stabilise price of oil, but could under pressure from other OPEC members and Russia.

$60 a barrel your guess guess could be about right ???
Brent up 3.5% today - maybe it will be sooner than "mid or even late"

Afren production cost I think may be about $40 a barrel, and Seaplat need more gas.

Let us see who will end up as "a dead duck"

if either of us actually KNEW what would happen, we wouldn't be sitting here discussing the issue

as i have said on the FLYB thread, you pays yer money and takes yer choice
as it stands, i currently have no position, but as is my wont, i'll probably post (truthfully!) as and when i do so

Of course - If I knew I would be on a boat somewhere that bit is obvious

I do hold Afren shares and I have never said that I do not.
Consequently I would obviously like to see them increase in price,
and am optimistic about them otherwise I would sell out.

Why do you write I'll probably post ( truthfully ) as ....
You seem to imply that I am not telling the truth, and if that is the case
what specifically is my lie ?

not you old chap, but periodically when i post that i have dealt or similar, a certain member reminiscent of MRSI and menorca et al, descends to abuse over my integrity, parentage and ancestry etc

btw, 120m already traded and buyers easily outnumbering sellers at ~9.75

NEVER BETTER SAID

Take your bet and I will tell you who you are

But open your mouth too wide and you will spout the brown sauce once too often