How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

Click here to learn more

Does anyone know the time delay of Bloomberg data (1 min? 5 min? 15 min?). Thanks.

TPO there are very few decent sites that have the detail you are looking for as most sites publish stuff that is not of interest to statisticians. I have studied footy matches for 20 years so I can tell you that over 40% of matches are draws at half time (according to my data set).

You can work out the implied probability by simply cross referancing the various markets on Betfair.

TPO - all of them.

:-)

Thanks.

From a mathematical point of view, how does probability change over time ? i.e. If there is a 92% chance of a goal being scored in 90 mins, is it true to say there a 46% chance of a goal being scored in 45 mins?

How true to the maths is football ? If you were to break 90 mins into six blocks of 15 mins, in general is there a significant weighting towards scoring in any particlar time block ? If not it could be considered random, which I would think would make the application of probability maths much easier.

TPO

Have you had a look at the sort of information available at http://www.betbrain.com/oddsviewer?view=overview&eventId=4&betTypeId=1&site=0

TPO is has been discussed and observed for many years. Football fits pretty well into various mathematical models which is why bookmakers can make money!!, but one of the key points is the variability which is huge.

Teams are more likley to score at certain points depending on their ability to score and the away teams ability to defend and also if they are playing at home etc. Many variables, much variability.

As I stated earlier on the thread, trying to out calculate people just isn't a valid strategy.

Bumped into this site today.

http://www.h2hstats.com/

Reckons 48.8% are draws at HT this season which is slightly higher than the long term average.

Thanks for that web site, I'll have a look later, although it sounds like I'm thinking about this all wrong.

I could use the maths to predict the odds that'll be offered if a certain outcome occurred, and that'd help with risk management etc, but unless I've misunderstood, you're saying that the Betfair prices are always correct for the current situation in the event.

I know you can make money scalping the volatility of the prices, but it's hard work and it isn't what I think you mean by a strategy.

Just to check, is it possible to make money just betting on the match odds of a single football match, or is it the usage of match odds in conjuction with something like correct score that provides the opportunities ?

Scrip,

Like the bit about no penalties for winning on betfair ...

"No penalties for winning win as often, and as much as you want, and your account will never be cancelled or restricted."

Must be quite a common occurrences for it to be worth mentioning...

Wonder how often it happens with brokers ???

I heard the other day on Ladbrokes commentary station of an old chap who tried to place a 5 bet but was refused by the bookie cos he won too often. The maximum they would allow him to stake was 25p !!!!!!!!!!

axdpc - It is a common problem that if you are a regular or large winner bookmakers (all bookmakers) they will restrict their liability. Usually by not accepting larger bets or closing your account the smaller bookies just refuse to pay you!

TPO

:-)

Just trying to establish whether I've been fishing in a stagnant pool upto now.

" ... refuse to pay you!" !!!

this on top of Hodgin's account of his problems with Times PC.

Well they got it below last night's close for the 9.00, didn't they :-)

I must excercise discipline
I must excercise discipline
I must excercise discipline
I must excercise discipline
I must excercise discipline
I must excercise discipline...................

Oh dear

Johns writing lines - must have had another bad day

give us a call


Scrip

Sorry not been in contact - been busy with the move - will try and give you a call

Scrip,

I've spent all evening studying betfair screen captures and think I've worked out one of the strategies. If I'm right, with a bit of insurance against a particular rare occurance, a big lay and a back will often turn a profit.

Can't wait to try it out.

"I must excercise discipline"

Managing your entry is one thing, your exit another!!

TPO if you are going to experiment only use the minimun stake else it is bound to bite you in the bum. You would be surprised who often rare occurances occur. Last two live footy matches threw up a near 1000-1 shot between them. Enough to wipe out many.