ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

BEWARE, EVIL K as just announced he as gone short on this one.

cheers GF.

bet u they r a 1 by xmas and be sure its evil K as lost.

Hope your right Will, I have no position either way.

cheers GF.

Up this morning, burn evil burn like you did on Regus.

Sorry for the delay folks

AGM FEEDBACK

AGM was very positive and there was loads of useful stuff to come out of it.

- AMAZON.COM - the Amazon deal is a BIG positive. This relates to Amazon.com (not amazon.co.uk) and gives ASOS recommended retailer status. This basically means that when people in the USA click on the "apparel" category they will see between 8-10 merchants displayed prominantly on the page and classified as "recommended", this coincides very nicely with the lunch of the US affiliate marketing and the acceptance of dollar payments. Given how massive the userbase of Amazon is this has enormous potential
- USA/INTERNATIONAL margin story. NO VAT - a nice 17.5% uplift on margins to offset the $5 shipping cost per item.
- ATTENTION BEARS. The costs associated with the move to a new warehouse are likely to be MINIMAL. Nick Robertson says that there are loads of options but highlighted that the most likely is a move to a big warehouse but ASOS nly pay for what they need. He suggested possibly a lease for only 30k sq feet with options to scale up as and when required.
- BUYING DIRECT / OWN BRAND. Their buying scale has allowed them to strip out the middle man (wholesalers) this process has already begun but will continue and there should be a considerable margin uplift.
- MISS SIXTY EXCLUSIVE DEAL. Margins of 55%, perfect label for the demographic. Evidence that ASOS is getting the attention of the industry.
- MENSWEAR. Very happy with progress in menswear and the response to recent ads in the likes of FHM has been very positive. Suggests the buying and execution in what is a new segment for ASOS has been strong.
- INTERNATIONAL AFFILIATE PROGRAMS have literally just been running for about 10 days, so we should see the positive impact on the sales line as this gathers momentum. The ASOS affiliate program in the UK was recently voted No.1 by affiliates and given its low cost coupled with the brand awareness which should arise from the Amazon deal all indications are that we should see some decent growth from this market in the next year.
- REGISTERED USERS: CEO confirmed that trend since beginning 2003 was for average monthly registered user growth had moved from 10k to 15k broadly. There is a seasonal dip however between April and September. In 2003 the number dipped down to about 8000 before resuming its upward trend. CEO said that in this context the 15000 monthly additions between June and August is VERY POSITIVE.

BH

GOLDFINGER tells us that Evil has gone short on ASOS, and I began to consider why anyone would go short of this stock....always a useful exercise if you happen to be long! Clearly there are many issues to consider but they can probably be categorsied as follows: Firstly, falling sales are reported due to any number of reasons...(well after the AGM statement yesterday we can discount that happening in the short term), Secondly, competition is likely to cap ASOS's growth...well ASOS already operate in a fiercely competitive marketplace, with a number of high profile, on-line sites already established....and seem to handle the competition from well established brands rather well. Thirdly, barriers to entry...low, BUT it takes some time to establish a company, and put together a well oiled operation that can really compete on brand, margin and quality of product. Fourthly, loss of focus by the management team....again ASOS have demonstrated a driven sales approach and seem to have both expansion of product line and new growth opportunities underway. Finally, Balance Sheet or Cashflow problems...well again this does not seem to be the case, quite the opposite in fact. To conclude this short analysis, I may have missed something as I am not a great bear, but I think I will go out and buy some more stock in the market, because this is still a great price...with house broker SP increasing its profit and EPS forecast after yesterday's AGM. No if Evil really has gone short it must be a bluff!

John, hes not bluffing he is short and gives his reasons as competition, says theres no patent to stop this, says he feels the business idea will be copied.

Points out that there is a frenzy behind this one and that the company as negligible capital backing. Sees competition coming in. He was long of the stock by the way.

John I dont hold the stock so I have no real view either way, just know its dangerous taking EK and his FOLLOWERS on. Dont forget he is a long termer.

I have had a look on the other big site this morning and Evil as actually posted refering to the stock. Its not an imposter either as its the same handle as when he posted on 3DM.

cheers Gf.

Goldfinger - thanks, but if he is short and I believe you on this, he must be using the billboards and his other media outlets to attempt to garner support for his views, and thereby drive down the share price. Reviewing the excellent post from baheid on key points arising from the AGM, I suspect that Evil may change his mind on this one, after all he used to be Long, and probably sold out too soon! I have no reason to change my view on this stock it is a screaming BUY! What we probably now need to boost the share price is more Institutional involvement, either that or a bid.

seeing the recent postings and read the agm statement i have no reason to sell out of the stock at the moment.this is coming up to the best trading period of the year why would you want to short at this time? new products coming in time for xmas.if one of the reasons evil is short because of comption it will take a long time to put into place all that needs to be done,then will there be serious comption within a year i dont think so.asos is eating into all the online retails apart from next,should secure 2 place in the hitwise list in dec.dyor this is my own view as long term readers of this thread know i have held this stock since the start of the year.cheers woodie

I agree with you Woodie, and the case for shorting 3DM was an entirely different case. You have to question Evil's logic in shorting this stock because he thinks the low barrier to entry etc will produce competition on a scale that will dilute ASOS'e sales and earnings in the near term. There may be some short turbulence etc as a result of his published position, but as Xmas approaches, there is only one direction this share price will go...UP. After a really stunning AGM statement the market's reaction so far has been muted, but wait until the story unfolds and everyone catches up!

Thanks, Beheid - seems to have been a real buzz with everyone enjoying being part of a success story. Agree johngtudor - what are the SP revised projections? Mind, good attracts evil, but it is difficult to take EK seriously; an additional point is the level of clearly satisfied repeat buyers who are not going to be shaken easily and are far more likely to bring their peer group on board. Have considered taking some profits as my stake is up to 2/3rds of my portfolio (didn't get in as early as WOODIE though). I accept the argument that there will be positive discussion, at least over the weekend. There may then be an opportunity to take some profits as there could be a gap in news flow until the Christmas season is well upon us - other buy opportunities are stacking up! Other views?
Eric

EWRobson - I understand that SP have raised pre-tax profits for this year to 1.45mln, and for 2005 to 2.06mln. They have retained the BUY stance with a 1.0p price target. May I ask what other stocks you have on your BUY list which might just outperform ASOS?

johngtudor
Thanks for the update. I'm honour bound to answer your question! Note first that I am talking short-term. My approach is, if I concluded that ASOS would trade sideways for 2 or 3 months in the absence of news, I would attempt to use the money profitably in the mean time. I am very bullish for the future of ASOS but they have had a big climb this year. The AGM news is excellent but has so far not moved the price forward. It may be that buying kicks in over the next week with positive reporting; Shares must give a very positive write-up next Thursday, patting themselves heartily on the back. And why not, excellent tips and I am just sorry that I missed the January one, getting in in March. But I don't want to wait around if I feel the buying has eased up. For instance, I sold 25% in July only to buy back on positive news and after the price had come back in August. But, to answer your question. Where do I put funds for the short-term, possibly switching back to ASOS before the interims?
1. Yoomedia (YOO). Up from 17p to 25.5p since the announcement of interactive broad-band TV project. Interims before the end of the month. Price has come down from 50p this year despite director buying.
2. Telecom Plus (TEP). Price has come back from 4 to about 250p, recently rising to about 290p. Again director buying well over 300p earlier in the year. 40% sales revenue growth likely to be maintained. Profitibility may not match because of wholesale gas prices but this is an old problem now. TEP is a network marketing company, the only one in the FTSE and it is not only that the existing sales force (paid by results) will do better but that each one is incentivised to introduce other sales people. The interims are not until december but the trading news, plus announcements, becomes public knowledge this month at the company Express day. Recent buying has all been small and will be by distributors.
3. Alizyme (AZM). Down to 130p despite recommendations to buy at 180p in Shares and elsewhere; also funds raised late last year at 168p. Case of lack of news. It had been expected that the Japanese $42m funding for their potential block-buster obesity drug would trigger pro rata funding worldwide. They effectively bought themselves time by raising funds and as a result have been forgotten about. Always deliver on promises. Reasonable possibility of announcement with interims later this month.

I did switch some ASC into YOO on Monday, a profitable exercise. I also have bought back into AZM having taken profits earlier this year. I would like to increase both holdings plus run TEP but don't want to miss further action in ASC. So there it is. Each company has an entry on this bb; worth looking at YOO in particular. Any other attractive options?

Eric

I think we are going around in circles with this one.The problem with most speculative shares is that they are a lot of talk and hypw and until contracts and revenue increases are seen people will sit on the sidelines( superscape is a good example- it could be huge)BUT asos have dramaticaly increased their sales and are very profitable. They are not a "talking horse" they have won the race!!
What do 15 - 35 yearolds go to at XMAS and what do they buy to attend these functions? Who sells these items?( now boasts a broader range which includes jewellery) I wonder if people buy and wear more jewellery at Xmas?
I think these are obvious comments but if you look at what ASOS are planning in their latest statement it seems they are very professional and have an excellent strategy. I still say 1 by Xmas ( Pah! if Evils gone short)
PS i still fancy Superscape

Wills correct, you are going around in circles, but think about this and I beleive its right.

Evil other than bulling must know something, do we have a competitor seriously comining in, wouldnt suprise me as as all you guys dont seem to take him serious, but really you should.

cheers GF.

You know I can't help thinking that this SP has a few similiaralities to Bioprogress earlier this year. I know, before you all jump om me, different sector, different products. But all the hype for BPGR was more or less the same. BB favourite, SP overheating, (as it transpired), comapny was going to make huge sales, huge profits and what happened the SP tanked. Now I don't for one moment think that ASOS will not achieve good sales / profits etc, but similiar statements could were made about BPGR, and that didn't stop the SP tanking short term. All of the posters make sound reasoned comments why the SP will continue to climb, but sometimes the stock market does not appear to be a sound reasoned organisation. I am not trying to deramp, obviously those long term holders have locked in good profits, but those buying in now, may just have to wait a bit longer for similiar rewards, or possibly not!

Good luck to all, I am going to wait and see, and if I miss the boat...well there will always be another one.

Regards

PTH

Eric - Thanks for setting out your reasoning. I personally don't think the price has yet reflected the upside from the AGM news, and we need to wait a week or so first. I am sifting through your BUY list now, but meanwhile take a look at Burren Energy (BUR), of which I am a great fan. They have an Interim update on Monday next and have been in a consolidating pattern over the last month or so. I owe a great debt to MW-M on this one, as I initially missed it until it popped up on his Watshot site (regretfully he has now moved on to providing focussed small company research for Institutional clients). Anyway that aside I have enjoyed a real run up on this stock, I am not sure everyone has yet taken on board how the oil majors have become slaves to the analysts in the need to keep EPS up, so they have passed on lots of oil search and extraction projects that might be anything than megga! This has allowed lots of small operators to become profitable and quickly...I am sure you will look closely at Burren before taking any view yourself, but here's a few 'nuggets'...there is a suggestion that one of the oil fields has significant reserves, well beyond those declared at this stage by the company (independent audit promised at end year)...perhaps a maiden dividend is declared this year...hints of a new oil deal in Russia...there are own figures for the year did not price oil at $40 or so, and their own tanker fleet is fully occupied shipping the company's own oil (last year these tankers could be hired for $5K perday, now it's more like $80K!). Although the company is fairly new to the market it's already in the 350 Index and has no premium yet for any market consolidation activity, which is bound to come over the next 18 month or so. Finally, it has really good analyst coverage now and you can get hold of the reports! Another favourite for me has been Fibernet (FIB)...follow the technical charts on this small and excellent telecommunications company. I trade this on the technicals particularly the MACD and RSI chart. A real classic trade. Finally take a look at Melrose Resources, through a series of stake swops it now has a major gas field in the Black Sea, (they are actively exploring other opportunities in that area with all the contacts to make it happen) plus a contract to supply Bulgaria and is a city favourite. Good hunting and I wish you well. John

A bit concerned that potential investors are put off by the negative comment and then live to regret it. First, ASOS have established themselves in a niche; there will be competition but give me the market leader any time. Second, the management steps reported above by Beheid are all impressive; they have already proved themselves and are not resting on their laurels. Most important the financials speak for themselves. Cap. is still just 46m. Projected PE for this year and next year (johngtudor's figures) are 31 and 22; the latter is clearly very cautious and th figure could be more like 15. But there are no real constraints on growth: the warehouse issue is a non-issue; they still only have less than 4% of the internet fashion market, itself growing by 47% (figure from memory) - I have absolutely no doubt that they will continue to increase market share. There is bound to be positive news flow towards Christmas. The cap. is reaching size when the funds will want a piece of the action. You must go with the PS 1 forecast, the only question being timing - I agree this year. I can't see any substance in the negative comments.

Eric - Seymour Pierce numbers are as follows (I now have a little more detail):

2005: Pre-tax: 1.45 EPS(p) 1.9 PER(34.2)
2006: 2.15 EPS 2.6 25

So a small change on the 2005/6 estimates, but they are I think on the conservative side. The only slight negative at this time is that these figures only come from one broker..we really need more institutional coverage.

I understand from other BB members that Evil just thinks ASOS sells things in a wharehouse, not much to it. In it's simplest form that is true, but how come lots of retail outlets fall on hard times and they have much higher overheads in terms of staff and space costs to contend with when they do! Well it comes down to having in place what people want, when they want it...and by the look of these figures ASOS certainly does. I plan to significantly increase my holding of ASOS stock over the next few trading days...I do hope the share price remains temporarily depressed...thanks to Evil and his friends!! John

johngtudor

Re comments on Evil, I suspect ASOS will come to be seen as a model for a successful internet trading company. It is informative that the tremendous run of Topps Tiles (TPT) is partially credited to their adherence to a leasehold model which enables them to expand outlets at relatively low cost. ASOS don't even have that worry. They remain cashflow positive even in a period of near 100% growth. Although there may be price growth next week with press comment, we may need news of Xmas trading before the next significant price jump.

Many thanks for the investment ideas which I will explore this weekend. I had been planning to take some ASC profits and increase stake in Yoomedia. I ended up switching to earthport (EPO). A price of 1.08p, against 3p earlier in the year, was too good to miss. I have given my reasons for predicting a return to 3p, early in 2005 and potentially 10p later that year, on the Earthport bb (532). There has been a tremendous amount of flak, much directed at TF for recommending the share at, I think, 2.68p. Much is just noise, but it is not for the faint-hearted. Interested in your views, perhaps there rather than here.

Eric