ptholden
- 09 Jul 2007 23:14
I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).
Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.
maddoctor
- 01 Aug 2007 22:49
- 325 of 504
keep drawing any trendline which others might use , at the mo what you are drawing is decreasing momentum lines which are probably just as well looked at via macd - in other words if macd turns up at a line you have the right one - if that makes any sense
will wait for our friend to return to tell me i am talking b*ll*
cynic
- 02 Aug 2007 07:51
- 326 of 504
tell me about it - lol! ..... per my post above, it sort of cost me a bundle
dynamix
- 02 Aug 2007 21:24
- 327 of 504
yeah macd is too slow aswell by time the thing turns the price has already made its move.. however using it conjunction with some price action gives you an edge
on trend lines reversal bars are best signal to use . full stop.
look at this chart.. on every bounce from the trend line what do you see?
(bars with blue dots under or over them)
You see a bar in a down move which not only has a higher close than open BUT has a close higher than the previous bars high too.
You dont have to look at the trend line for these signals, Ive highlighted a few within small retraces in the trend. Usually the first bar which can close above the previous bars high with a higher close than open is a reversal bar.
again, it dont work all the time, but its a damn good forward pointing indicator. Test it out on some stocks with good trends.
You can also reverse this idea when you get a huge rise, look for the breakdowns below a bar.
dynamix
- 02 Aug 2007 21:27
- 328 of 504
and unfortunately for MAG theres no reversal bar yet :(
maddoctor
- 02 Aug 2007 22:16
- 329 of 504
looks like you are talking about swing trading , i prefer multiple confirmation. the example is hard to read but i think in each of your examples the macd has reversed. i take it you act on the next bar which is not what rivelland advocates
agree entirely with you re price action leading
maggiebt4
- 02 Aug 2007 23:08
- 330 of 504
Now if only I had understood this sooner. If I understand correctly the reversal is - the first bar that closes below the previous day's low with a lower close than open. Hope Ican get this sussed before I'm bankrupt & divorced!
dynamix
- 03 Aug 2007 00:04
- 331 of 504
maddoctor it dont have to be swing trading. reversal bars happen at intraday frequency too. you just need a combination of things which work for a particular index/stock/future. testing is best.
bests D.
dynamix
- 03 Aug 2007 00:08
- 332 of 504
Maggie yes that is correct. but make one thing clear. do not take the sell signals when a price is still in an up trend. only look to keep buying the long reversal.
how do you know this I hear you ask? you dont
but only taking the buy reversals whilst the MACD was above the zero line is a good tool. it would have kept you out of trouble a lot on the chart above for the last year.
as always stops apply. good stop placement is under or above previous bar close.
bests D
greekman
- 03 Aug 2007 08:47
- 333 of 504
PT,
Just getting into TA, so thanks for the thread (all the hard work).
And it's great to see a thread that is compiled and contributed to by grown-ups.
Requires a lot of study, but getting there.
Cheers to all.
Greek.
maddoctor
- 03 Aug 2007 08:49
- 334 of 504
"grown ups" ???????????
cynic
- 03 Aug 2007 08:50
- 335 of 504
put another way .... rarely slagging on this thread, except between D and myself for a short evening!
maddoctor
- 03 Aug 2007 08:54
- 336 of 504
B wave on the dow anybody?
cynic
- 03 Aug 2007 09:12
- 337 of 504
what does that mean? ....... my gut feel about Dow today is that it will be down >100 by close tonight as people take some rather unexpected profits from the week and as a precaution against yet more sub-prime lenders going belly up
maddoctor
- 03 Aug 2007 09:15
- 338 of 504
cynic , falls generally go , down A , up B(but not as much as the fall) , then C down (greater than A fall)
hope that helps
goldfinger
- 03 Aug 2007 10:58
- 339 of 504
Your thoughts on this one PTH Cynic please?.
Nb, trading on a low forward multiple of just over 9 times to end of sept 2007 PEG 0.6
chocolat
- 03 Aug 2007 12:49
- 340 of 504
Put another way, cynic, you're really just a pussy cat ;)
Maddoctor, it hasn't escaped my notice that you're into EW stuff :)
Me, well I never got past page 3 of the Prechter bible, but if you're interested in any of the prognostications by various EWers that are regularly sent to me, pm me.
maddoctor
- 03 Aug 2007 12:51
- 341 of 504
choccy , just keep a look in on the site since they often have interesting articles.
lost faith bigtime when they kept calling a bear market for 3 years from 2003 . cost me bigtime! wrong side of the market!
they did however call the subprime market 1 year before anybody else
cynic
- 03 Aug 2007 13:03
- 342 of 504
choccy .... please don't start talking about pussy .... it'll get me overexcited!
chocolat
- 03 Aug 2007 13:07
- 343 of 504
Well this stuff isn't from the site - it's from people like Robert McHugh - who always remembers to put PhD after his name :) and Bill Adlard - who rather refreshingly isn't American.
I also recall TomH calling the bear market, following his mentor Wilder's wild musings.
Nah - everyone's been calling the subprime thingie :)
chocolat
- 03 Aug 2007 13:24
- 344 of 504
Blimey, cynic - I thought it was just culinary delights that tickled your extremities ;)