< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Jimmy - the Brent & West Texas crude live charts are posted in the Traders Thread if you are interested.

Thank you skinny ..

Crikey !....I said 10p on friday !....missed this afternoon session....but I have a nasty loss and a fabulous gain with Afren at the moment....let's hope that even though it's not so nice at the pumps : that crude rises and AFR can raise some finance...in that case AFR are back to 50p !.....long shot but possible.........

The way some think about the company down and now up

From FSAwatcher in advfn

There are two aspects to Afren. 1. The assets/valuation and 2. The share price.

Since the sector has been out of favour - the disconnect between valuation and sp has grown to unrecognisable levels. They are so far apart that they are virtually useless.

Which brings me to the 1st point... the assets. Not many will argue with the cash generation and 2p value using industry standard methods. On that basis - Afren's assets clearly are worth more than their debt. If they were not... the bond market would never have agreed to loan the money in the first place. Now... the lower POO has cast some 'uncertainty' over Afren's ability to service that debt. That's very real but there are solutions / answers to the near term cash calls. They have already said they have got in restructure specialists etc etc. Enquest announced a sale of non core assets today. It was minimal, but the strategy is clear. Should Afren deliver similar news on divestments, then the sp is going to continue to leap higher. There are plenty of options at hand and Seplat have not walked away. So forget about the bondholders, if they wanted to leave shareholders with zero, then they would have called in the debt on Friday. Instead - they gave Afren 4 weeks to sort their issues out. Why... because the bondholders want Afren to survive - it's their greatest chance of getting full value back.
Sorry Winnifroth, fatboy and shaker... but you've shorted the wrong stock at the wrong time. If you thought Afren was in trouble - then you should have shorted at 32p or even 21p when the signs were clearly there. Shorting at 4p or thereabouts based on Bondholders taking everything is madness. Shorting at 32p or 21p and you at least give yourselves a chance. You all deserve to get nuked on any shorts at this low levels.

Which brings me very nicely to point 2.... the share price. Now... there is a reason why the sp got spanked from 21p and then from 17p ranges. The best image I can conjur up is of a bunch of bison stampeding for the door. These Bison (the ii's) had around 30%+ of Afren stock. Due to risk issues and compliance the bulk of those 30% shares had to be sold no matter what. That stampede was impossible to stop. No sets system or market maker is going to stand toe to toe with a herd of Bison intent on going out the door.
Just open the door, drop the sp and let them go. That's as simple as it gets. You'll always have a disconnected sp when you have one way driven traffic.

That's the time - the perfect storm for Shorters to piggy back. That's the wave or tail you want to catch. But what happens when the Bison have stopped running, the stampede is over. The sellers dried up? What happens is that you start to see the stampede turn into buyers. Suddenly all those bargain hunters at 5p or 6p ranges are not the only ones. They have competition from shorters who suddenly realise they have got themselves on the wrong side of the stampede. The wave has crashed and burned them and left them washed up.

The bounce to 10p is roughly where the sp opened after Afren issued the $50mln short fall RNS. It was circa 19p prior to that. The price was set by the auction which was in turn set by the likes of Standard Life and co (the bison). With Bison now gone, the sp should begin to reflect the opportunity that Afren has over the next 2 to 4 weeks to sort their issues out.

Where's the sp going to be going into the next Seplat deadline? 15p, 21p or 25p? It's not going to be lower than 10p with the Bison now gone. Unless Afren issues more poor RNS's - then the path to recovery should now be cleared largely because speculators, predators are going to be more prevalent than shorters or the Bison. The latter have shot their load, burned all their powder and didn't they do well? 4p - wow that really was disconnected to asset value.

Afren is not out the woods - but the very fact the bondholders bought Afren precious 'time' says it all. If they wanted to pull the plug, they could of done that last Friday. But they didn't.

Now ... what happens if Afren issue an RNS tomorrow saying they have hit the pay load on 115 drill circa 70mmboe? Sometimes - it's better to wait for the right wave before you drop your best RNS's out there.

Enjoy the trip back to 20p and enjoy the smell of burning shorts. The smart shorters played this from 150p after BoD's issues and left circa 10p or 6p ranges. The thick shorters arrived at 10p. And they deserve the pain for being late to the party.

there is a fair amount of sense in the above, though i do not necessarily concur with all its conclusions

while it is true that the bondholders could indeed have pulled the plug - greece is perhaps a good analogy - they would then have lost everything and immediately .... they had no need to do this, for they have merely given time which costs nothing

it is apparent that there are no other players on the pitch, so Seplat must surely hold nearly all the cards .... that said, the nigerian gov't will also have its own agenda and input (and grasping hands and open wallets at the ready)

i agree that a lot of punters will get their fingers burnt for the reasons outlined, but not just those who are short either ..... the wild gyrations are merely a reflection of the traders professional and otherwise who use the volatility for their own benefit - they hope

will PIs get left out in the cold at the end of the day? ..... in my opinion, they probably will for assuredly Seplat won't have any interest in them at all

===========

fun to watch, but i'm glad i'm on the sidelines

Are we still expecting the drilling results from Ameena at block OML115 ?
It was said this is targeting 65 mmbbls which would benefit from great cost synergies ?
When is this news due ???

RF wrote (on the wrong thread!) ....
Yes.....but only in profit with the 5p purchase....with the rest I'm nursing a bad loss...so mixed bag I'm afraid....not sure what to do...as everybody seems to be buying...will stay put for the moment....wished I'd bought a lot..lot more now...

==========

RF - in my not-at-all-humble opinion, watch like a hawk for, as i wrote above, this feels like a false market, sp being totally driven by the traders in both directions

Crucial date is now the 13th Feb, or any time before, but it is likely that the traders will have moved on by that date, as they won't like the risk of SEPLAT walking away.
Gap on the chart will be closed at around 17.5p, so that may be the short term target.

Overall I'm at a loss but the 5p buy + the sp surging upwards today is helping a lot.....I would be pleased if this went past 20p....

When I think this used to be a blue chip...ultra reliable....never thought we'd get this volatility like this normally only reserved for penny shares.....

That's because it is a penny share!

Brent @$56.60.

Brent oil price has spike again this morning but there is now a small drop from the top

Share price on the rise again, trying to reach 15p, but got short and a large retracement to just under 14p
Is normal after such a rise, where there is constant profit taking some times MMs games in order to replace their books like the one now

The GAP is partially being close from around 12p to 17p, after yesterday reaching the starting point at one time

You always catch a bad LIAR

Reading back I notice the squelched is NOT a squelched

Although he wants to be contrarian, he recognize that I know my share business, so he has to follow me one way or another

cynic - 02 Feb 2015 12:41 - 3243
abuse is easily dealt with ... squelched

mentor - 02 Feb 2015 13:48 - 3244
GOOD ALL SORTED

mentor - 02 Feb 2015 23:18 - 3257
The way some think about the company down and now up ......

cynic - 03 Feb 2015 08:28 - 3258
there is a fair amount of sense in the above, though i do not necessarily concur with all its conclusions

i unsquelched you this morning ..... it's as easy as squelching you
when you behave in a civilised manner, your posts can be interesting, as was the long one you posted earlier

3267 is just a load of garbage, but unfortunately one has to suffer the bad with the good until the aggravation of the former sufficiently outweighs the latter

that you have an over-inflated opinion of yourself and your skills is fine even if risible

I hope you confese you sin at the Sunday mass

sorry I forgot I read somewhere you are not Christian

forget about going to mass, I am going to be the Padre and forgive you once more

Bullshare is watching ....... be aware.,.

Are the Saudis going to win the battle as others including the US are cutting back on exploration?

Oil Prices Continue Their Rally

Oil prices continued their rally on Tuesday as investors continued to bet that a sharp decline in U.S. drilling activity will balance the oversupplied global market even as analysts cautioned that the rebound may not prove sustainable.

Front-month Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 2.3% flirting with $56 a barrel on London's ICE futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in March recently traded at $50.65 a barrel, up more than 2% from Monday's settlement.

Both the global oil benchmarks have gained more than 11% over the last three sessions after data last week showed the number of oil-drilling rigs in the U.S. fell to their lowest in three years.

Gareth Lewis-Davies, analyst at BNP Paribas, said that investors are encouraged by the U.S. rigs data, which suggests cuts in production would follow.
But as the lag between falling rig counts and falling output is up to nine months, the rally may not be sustained, Mr. Lewis-Davies said. What is more, global supply is still exceeding demand and crude stocks will continue to build for some time, he said.

"People are trying to catch a falling knife," Mr. Lewis-Davies said. "Investors are trying to buy ahead of the upturn in physical balances being afraid not to miss the boat."

RBC Capital Markets said that prices could grind lower into the second quarter until evidence mounts that a deceleration of non-OPEC supply growth is taking shape. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has resisted cutting its production in a bid to squeeze out its competitors out of the market.

RBS cut its Brent crude forecast for this year to $57 a barrel from $71, and its Nymex crude forecast to $53 a barrel from $65.

The market today will be focusing on oil-inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, followed by the more reliable reading by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Investors expect another weekly increase in U.S. oil stockpiles to record levels.

Besides U.S. supplies, global inventories are also building up as more unused oil goes into storage in many countries, including a portion that is stored on tankers at sea.

Société Générale estimates that the global buildup in oil stockpiles in 2008-09 was 210 million barrels, rising to 265 million barrels last year. "We forecast another large build of 300 million barrels during the first half of 2015," it said.

Investors are also tracking spending cuts and falling profits at major oil companies, as these will eventually lead to cuts in oil output.

BP PLC on Tuesday became the first of the world's oil majors to record a quarterly loss and said it plans to reduce exploration expenditure and postpone a number of projects. The company expects organic capital expenditure this year to total around $20 billion, significantly lower than its previous guidance of $24 billion to $26 billion.

14.8p seems to be the stumbling block today.

MMs playing games?

well it is an order book share but we also know that MMs know how to manipulate it
now one way is to bring some correction and get into the stop loss and get rid of some traders. ( fill up their books also )

So they brought the stock down to 12.60p spike (50% intraday retracement ) and up again currently 14.05p