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Oil Brat posted this on the DES board today after I asked him his views. IMO it's very interesting. Hope he doesn't mind me copying it here.

PVR are quite significantly under valued and is the one I’m still building a position in. I never wanted them to drill hookhead as it muddled the maths. The target they have with Exxon is huge, 7bn bbls. Run the basic petrophysical / financial calculation and you get 600p+ from a start point of 5p. That’s to big an imbalance so during the drilling phase the price will have to rise to match the potential, I’m guessing that 25p up to 50p would be about right.

Hookhead was a discovery but they can’t prove it directly. I gave them a call and had a long talk with them from a PI / oilman perspective. They got a poor cement job on the final string so didn’t isolate the water. Water will flow preferentially over oil so the well tests were rubbish / flawed. They have modeled production data on the petrophysics that they have and come up with 3-4kbbls a day. I understand what they have done and I understand why they can’t publish it as fact, (if you check their broker you’ll see they carry the number as part of their analysis). But its still there and got going anywhere. On this alone they are undervalued, probably as much as 100%, (if the 3-4k is close to right it’s a tidy find). Their broker gets about 17p I think that number is out of thin air. The second hookhead spuds shortly expect good things from that.

Now look at Exxon, who I have had some dealings with, (not too much but enough). They are strange company and they play a very long term game. They have farmed in to PVR taking 80% but carrying all costs for everything, it’s a great deal for PVR. (Note this please Mr Phipps). The key for me is Exxon shot and processed the seismic which they are very very good at, (their Angola recorded is astonishing with their new technique, I made PVR aware of this which they were most interested in). What did Exxon do after they had processed the data? They (and PVR) mopped up all the unclaimed acreage around the prospect. I put 2 and 2 together and come up with approximately 4.

My understanding on the rumor mill is they are looking for a rig slot for Jan 09, which makes sense and should allow me to expand my position as long as they don’t do anything careless, like discover oil somewhere else in the mean time…

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PVR in market for drill ship for Spanish Point.

The Quest Floating Production Database gives you vast quantities of information on all of the floating production activity that is going on around the globe. You can also learn about new fps projects that are being planned and bid upon, giving you and your company a competitive advantage.

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SPANISH POINT 35/8 Appraise Providence Resources N Sea, Irish 2007-9-26 3:11 PM

Glad to see I\'m not the only one who knew PVR tested water from a bum cement job at Hook Head. ;-0

Al,no muckups on reentry in Spring.

As I said when I first posted here - ADTI = cowboys!

Would ADTI be in charge of casing?

Yep, casing and cementing it in ordinarily. ;-)))

BTW, it ain't necessarily easy to prevent muckups in the Spring unless it's properly planned and implemented. There will be remedial work to complete by the sound of it.

Fingers crossed then!

Wee Aje Article!

http://oilbarrel.com/news/article.html?body=1&key=oilbarrel_en:1198202481&feed=oilbarrel_en

Providence Resources to embark on hectic drilling programme next year
Friday December 21 2007


EXPLORATION group Providence Resources is set to drill as many as nine exploration wells next year as it embarks on a hectic programme aimed both at home and abroad.


As well as drilling appraisal wells on the Hook Head oil discovery in the Celtic Sea, Providence will drill in the UK and offshore Africa, where it has an interest in the Nigerian Aje field.

Other significant developments expected next year include a decision on whether or not to drill the massive Dunquin prospect off the west coast. Oil giant Exxon-Mobil has farmed in to the acreage and is likely to decide its drilling plans during 2008, with a well likely to be scheduled a year later.

In a trading update issued yesterday, chief executive Tony O'Reilly Jnr said 2007 has been an extremely positive year for Providence. "Not least in Ireland where the discovery of oil at Hook Head, the continuing work on our west of Ireland prospects at Dunquin and Goban Spur and the ongoing farm out process at our Spanish Point Project has confirmed our strategy and real commitment to the region.

"Diversification continues to be key to our business and the acquisition of the majority stake in the Singleton oilfield, plus the discovery and bringing on line of two new gas wells at High Island, Gulf of Mexico, has substantially increased cash flow for the company, as well as moving us closer to our stated objective of 2,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day," he said.



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Expect Tony to start unloading the bullets here from Monday on!

ROCKALL, the stub of rock more than 200 miles off Donegal, was once considered a joke and the target of adventurers and eccentrics who wanted to be "king" of the volcanic outcrop.


But now Ireland is among four nations lining up to claim their rights to the vast tracts of oil, gas and minerals that lie beneath the islet.

Crucial talks that will give this country the right to explore the seabed around Rockall were due to take place this week in Dublin but have been postponed because of elections in the Faroe Islands, who are also staking a claim to the vast wealth believed to lie in the vicinity of the rock.

In terms of the long-term economic benefit, the talks, to be rescheduled as a matter of urgency, will be among the most important ever held in this country.

Ireland is the most oil-dependent country in the EU, receiving two-thirds of its energy needs from oil, compared to an EU average of 42 per cent. At stake in the talks are energy reserves which are potentially worth billions.

Oil prices soared to $100 a barrel on Wednesday, underpinning the importance of Ireland's claim to territorial rights to the area known officially as the Hatton/Rockall basin.

Last week, Shell announced they will invest $100m to cover the drilling costs of three wells, two off the Faroe Islands and a third off our north west coast.

The Dublin talks, the culmination of five years of diplomacy, will involve officials from Ireland, Britain, Denmark and Iceland and will hopefully end the dispute over territorial rights to the area -- some 163,000 sq miles, about five times the size of Ireland.

Officials from the Department of Foreign Affairs helped put together a compromise deal which is still on the table and will form the focus of discussions.

Both Britain and Denmark, which is staking a claim because the Faroe Islands are a Danish dependency, are broadly in favour of the deal, though Iceland still has reservations.

The talks have an added urgency following a recent United Nations (UN) treaty which allows states to claim a bigger share of the ocean floor if they can show a geological link between the area of ocean and their own landmass. The closing date for claims under the UN accord is May 2009.

Rockall is about 83-feet wide at its base, rises sheer to a height of some 72 feet and is the eroded core of an extinct volcano.

Former SAS member and survival expert Tom McLean lived on Rockall from May 26, 1985, to July 4, 1985, in a much publicised attempt to confirm the UK's claim to Rockall.

In response to McLean's jingoistic actions, the Wolfe Tones ballad group released Rock on Rockall, which mocked British "greed" and included the chorus lines: "May the Seagulls rise and pluck your eyes, and the water crush your shell, and the natural gas will burn your ass, and blow you all to hell."

In 2007, Greenpeace occupied the islet in a protest against oil exploration but were ignored by the authorities. More recently, TV presenter Ben Fogle attempted to stake a claim but was unable to land on the storm-tossed rock. He managed to attach a post-it note affirming his personal claim to a rock using gaffer tape.

Actual ownership of Rockall itself is no longer as important as it was once considered in the Sixties and Seventies when it became a source of political friction between Ireland and the UK.

In 1982, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, adopted in Montego Bay, ruled: "Rocks which cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own shall have no exclusive economic zone or continental shelf."

Meanwhile, six oil companies have sought exploration licences to drill for oil and gas off the west coast under the Government's latest licensing round, even though taxes on discoveries have been substantially increased by Energy Minister Eamon Ryan from 25 per cent to 40 per cent after costs have been deducted.

Major oil company Exxon Mobil, Providence Resources -- which is half-owned by Sir Anthony
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Thanks Hermana for all the information, I must say : This is another amazing irish oil company that might come incredibly right one day.

req.,one day soon hopefully!

Phoenix,JANUARY 11, 2008
Wasting money in Providence Resources
JUST BEFORE Christmas Tony O’Reilly Junior put out an end of year trading statement for Providence Resources highlighting the company’s achievements in 2007 and, in particular, what he calls its “significant oil discovery at Hook Head, offshore Ireland”. To some extent this update is reassuring but it is very hard to overcome the serious disappointment with the ultimate outcome of the HookHead drilling which, in the end, failed to flow test any oil at all.

If Providence was valued as a small fish this might not be significant but, since thecompany issued an additional400 million new shares at 7 cent last April, it now has just on 2.5billion shares outstanding and, at the current share price of 9cent, the company is currently capitalised at a huge €225m.
This is a valuation that is over four times that of its much more successful neighbour,
Irish Oil and Gas (IOG), and yet Providence has nothing in the pipeline for the whole of the coming year that will bring any real excitement and interest for investors.

DISASTER
After many drilling disappointments, there was huge expectation riding on this year’s Hook Head drilling, using the Petrolia drilling rig which IOG was able to sub-
contract out to it. Without this leg-up Providence could not have drilled this year for there are no rigs available on short notice and in the current market. After drilling two well son the Old Head of Kinsale and Schull prospects, which IOG successfully flow tested at 17million and 21 million cubic feet of gas a day respectively, it passed the rig on to Providence which spudded in to its Hook Head prospect on August 20and reached a target depth of4,880 feet three weeks later on September 10, when Providence announced “that ithad successfully logged a total of 75 feet of net hydrocarbon bearing reservoir in the50/11/3 Hook Head appraisal well with average porosities of20% within the main hydrocarbon bearing interval”
and that “the plan is now to seta string of casing prior to flow testing the well”.
This latter looked promising and investors anticipated a high rate of barrels flowing per day on test. IOG had successfully flow tested its Schull prospect within seven days with the same rig. Strangely, Providence spent a full calendar month (30 days)
flow testing this Hook Head drill and in the end failed completely to flow test anything. In the circumstances,
this was a disaster but Providence announced it as a success, advising that it could now confirm a “significant oil accumulation at Hook Head”.
Given that the rig was costing $450,000 a day plus al lthe other ancillary costs, this meant that in three week drilling at a cost of $12mProvidence had got virtually as much knowledge as it was going to out of this well hole. But then it spent a further $15m incompletely failing to flow test this well over the following month to learn virtually nothing more.
Often in the trade a dud well is announced as a technical success but, in this case,
Providence spent 30 days having a technical failure.
According to Providence itself“ down hole mechanical conditions which were primarily related to the integrity of the casing string cement bond,
delayed the implementation of a full flow test programme”.
Given that IOG had used the same Petrolia rig to successfully flow test both the prospects it drilled in time and within budget, Providence appears to have wasted an awful lot of money and it is certainly unacceptable to simply confirm that “further work on the down hole mechanical conditions were precluded by the time limitations relating to the rig contract. Accordingly the partners have now moved to suspend the well for future re-enter.”
The really disappointing part of this prolonged flow test failure is that this was not a wildcat drill but rather essentiallyan appraisal well to follow uptwo holes which had previouslybeen drilled. Mar
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up to 70million barrels-oil at $100.hardly a waste of time.Who rattled their cage.

winner,don't know. Have emailed co. to see if they are responding to this unfair article.

Technically the article is correct. As I said ages ago, ADTI = cowboys. Let's hope PVR don't use their services again.

who did iog use?