< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

In freefall..

Thanks for that piece of analysis mitzy.

It did fall to 8.60p and bounce to 10.27p now
The bear trap was well done with MMs and derampers on plenty of other threads to the poin were the order book was DEPTH 50 v 154 at its lowes

now has settle on a level basis

Earlier the oil price has come down to $56.25 now is bouncing back a bit to $56.75

Below is a few minutes ago from TOTAL, should help the oil price

Gunmen Storm Libyan Oil Field, Say Oil Company Officials

Gunmen have stormed an oil field in central Libya, oil officials said on Wednesday, just one day after fighting resumed near the country's largest oil port.
The attack underscores the chaos that is gripping Libya as rival factions vie for the control of its vital oil industry.

A spokesman for state oil company National Oil Co. said unknown gunmen had entered the Mabruk oil field, which is operated by its joint-venture with France's Total SA. Staff were able to leave the premises and are now safe, he said, but the status of the facility isn't known. A manager at the joint-venture confirmed the information.

The Islamist militia group Dawn, which controls the capital Tripoli, has been battling for months with the army of Libya's internationally recognized government, which is based in the East. Fighting between both sides resumed on Tuesday near the country's largest oil port, called Sidra.

In November, Dawn's allies took over the country's biggest oil field, Sharara, but their rivals retaliated by shutting the pipeline on which it relies.
As well as fighting between rival factions, Libya is also facing a new risk of terrorist attacks. A group calling itself Islamic State's Tripoli Province claimed responsibility for an attack last Tuesday on a hotel that killed 9 people, including an American.

i only have nymex (wtl) for march on my watchlist, but that has not recovered at all .... currently $51.30 from a low of $51.10 and a high of $53.10

It seems Seplat are going to make an opening bid at 28p,check out the chat over at iii.

Part of the Barclays note today:
"Delaying $65m of imminent debt and interest payments until the end of February gives Afren time to continue its discussions with Seplat over a possible merger, its largest bondholders on immediate funding needs and potential investors interested in recapitalising the business. At this point, we believe a positive outcome for equity holders rests on Seplat (or an alternative acquirer) being willing to assume the debt at face value and place some value on the equity to take control of the business as a going concern. However, using the Brent forward curve, our Core NAV is negative and we forecast 2015-20E cash flows can do no more than service the existing debt as it falls due. We therefore reiterate our Underweight rating, moving our Price Target to N/A from 28p, on the basis that we see limited value in the equity.
How flexible are bondholders willing to be?
Afren’s three bond issues total ~$865m and contain change of control clauses that require an acquirer of Afren to refinance them at par. The bonds currently trade at 33-34cents on the dollar. Bondholders’ willingness to cooperate with management on a capital restructuring may simply be a means of providing potential acquirers with sufficient time to complete due diligence in the hope that the change of control clause can be activated.
Should an acquirer take on the debt?
In January, Seplat secured new debt facilities totaling $1bn, with the option to increase this to $1.7bn “for qualifying acquisition opportunities”. On this basis, it feels reasonable to assume Seplat could refinance Afren’s estimated end-14E net debt of ~$1bn. However, whether it should we believe is another issue: using the Brent forward curve our 2015E-2020E cash flow outlook indicates Afren’s Nigerian portfolio can do no more than service its bonds as they mature in 2016, 2019 and 2020. Therefore, we believe any buyer would need a higher oil price outlook and/or reduced debt burden for the acquisition of Afren to provide an increase in future discretionary cash flow and create shareholder value.
Is there greater value as a going concern? The risk for an acquirer of waiting for Afren to enter administration would be the impact on its day-to-day field operations. Afren’s core Nigerian portfolio was built through joint venture agreements with indigenous partners, where the company’s economic interest in each asset is not aligned with its direct legal interest. A default may negatively impact Afren’s economic rights."

It seems Seplat are going to make an opening bid at 28p,check out the chat over at iii.
another with the inside leg measurement of the chairman's pa!!

Jazz T....that has already been disproved and was based soley on the Barclays note this morning and their valuation.

good and interesting article harry ...... balls of steel and nimble fingers needed to trade here

jazz T , check out the chat where ? and if it's a BB then it's pure speculation , unless you have something more solid .

Here jimmy and it's ............well, make up your own mind!

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=discussion&code=cotn:AFR.L

Thanks HARRY , my own mind is already made up ,on something as big as this it's just punters chatting rubbish .The only people in the know are the people doing the deal right now .

well they do say that the chairman's pa has the most wonderful legs and rumoured not to wear knickers either, so well worth investigating closely i would have thought :-)

That's pure speculation as well ,like the bid i'd like to see evidence .

me too, but then i always was a dirty old goat :-)

i'm amazed sp has stayed so static today with 175m traded so far and oil falling back yet again

Maybe telling us something ?

Just below 11p it seems is the way someone want to keep it for the moment being

on looking at the order book as soon as it reaches close to 11 offer something happens and down again ( someone is controlling the price ) as most times there is only about 50K on small trades from 10.70 to 11p,
mind you have been keept with plenty though small trades on the offer side since 12pm.

curious innit, especially with crude falling out of bed again