< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
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In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Part of the Barclays note today:
"Delaying $65m of imminent debt and interest payments until the end of February gives Afren time to continue its discussions with Seplat over a possible merger, its largest bondholders on immediate funding needs and potential investors interested in recapitalising the business. At this point, we believe a positive outcome for equity holders rests on Seplat (or an alternative acquirer) being willing to assume the debt at face value and place some value on the equity to take control of the business as a going concern. However, using the Brent forward curve, our Core NAV is negative and we forecast 2015-20E cash flows can do no more than service the existing debt as it falls due. We therefore reiterate our Underweight rating, moving our Price Target to N/A from 28p, on the basis that we see limited value in the equity.
How flexible are bondholders willing to be?
Afren’s three bond issues total ~$865m and contain change of control clauses that require an acquirer of Afren to refinance them at par. The bonds currently trade at 33-34cents on the dollar. Bondholders’ willingness to cooperate with management on a capital restructuring may simply be a means of providing potential acquirers with sufficient time to complete due diligence in the hope that the change of control clause can be activated.
Should an acquirer take on the debt?
In January, Seplat secured new debt facilities totaling $1bn, with the option to increase this to $1.7bn “for qualifying acquisition opportunities”. On this basis, it feels reasonable to assume Seplat could refinance Afren’s estimated end-14E net debt of ~$1bn. However, whether it should we believe is another issue: using the Brent forward curve our 2015E-2020E cash flow outlook indicates Afren’s Nigerian portfolio can do no more than service its bonds as they mature in 2016, 2019 and 2020. Therefore, we believe any buyer would need a higher oil price outlook and/or reduced debt burden for the acquisition of Afren to provide an increase in future discretionary cash flow and create shareholder value.
Is there greater value as a going concern? The risk for an acquirer of waiting for Afren to enter administration would be the impact on its day-to-day field operations. Afren’s core Nigerian portfolio was built through joint venture agreements with indigenous partners, where the company’s economic interest in each asset is not aligned with its direct legal interest. A default may negatively impact Afren’s economic rights."

It seems Seplat are going to make an opening bid at 28p,check out the chat over at iii.
another with the inside leg measurement of the chairman's pa!!

Jazz T....that has already been disproved and was based soley on the Barclays note this morning and their valuation.

good and interesting article harry ...... balls of steel and nimble fingers needed to trade here

jazz T , check out the chat where ? and if it's a BB then it's pure speculation , unless you have something more solid .

Here jimmy and it's ............well, make up your own mind!

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=discussion&code=cotn:AFR.L

Thanks HARRY , my own mind is already made up ,on something as big as this it's just punters chatting rubbish .The only people in the know are the people doing the deal right now .

well they do say that the chairman's pa has the most wonderful legs and rumoured not to wear knickers either, so well worth investigating closely i would have thought :-)

That's pure speculation as well ,like the bid i'd like to see evidence .

me too, but then i always was a dirty old goat :-)

i'm amazed sp has stayed so static today with 175m traded so far and oil falling back yet again

Maybe telling us something ?

Just below 11p it seems is the way someone want to keep it for the moment being

on looking at the order book as soon as it reaches close to 11 offer something happens and down again ( someone is controlling the price ) as most times there is only about 50K on small trades from 10.70 to 11p,
mind you have been keept with plenty though small trades on the offer side since 12pm.

curious innit, especially with crude falling out of bed again

Curiouser and curiouser !....still think 20p plus for me....!...

The volume is only half that of the last two days, so maybe holders are content to sit awhile before deciding on a course of action. Lets just hope that SEPLAT think AFR is a bargain which shouldn't be missed.

is 204m traded REALLY half of the last 2 days volume?

When I looked, vol was about 170m which is about half.

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services yesterday (4 February) said it lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on Afren PLC, a U.K.-headquartered oil and gas exploration and production company, to 'SD' (selective default) from 'CC'.

At the same time, we lowered our long-term issue rating on the company's senior secured bonds maturing in 2016 to 'D' from 'CC'. We also affirmed the 'CC' long-term issue rating on the company's senior secured bonds maturing in 2019 and 2020.

We downgraded Afren because it failed to pay its obligations under both its $300 million revolving credit facility (Ebok facility) and its bonds maturing in 2016 on time (we understand the amount outstanding on the bond is $253 million). The company obtained from the lenders of the $300 million revolving credit facility a deferral of the $50 million amortization payment due Jan. 31, 2015, to Feb. 27, 2015. We also understand Afren is using a 30-day grace period under the bonds due 2016 to postpone payment of US$15 million of interest due on Feb. 1, 2015.

We consider that the deferral of Afren's debt payment obligations is tantamount to a default, and we think that there is a high likelihood that Afren will fail to make the principal and interest payments in February 2015.

Still, Afren has not defaulted on its other bonds maturing in 2019 and 2020, which account for more than 50% of its outstanding total debt. We have therefore lowered our long-term rating on Afren to 'SD', reflecting our view of its default on some of its debt instruments; rather than a default on all or a substantial part of its debt.

We believe Afren's ability to continue to operate effectively will be hampered, particularly because the appointments of key managers are still pending after the dismissals of the CEO and COO last year and because oil prices are currently low. The decline in oil prices is complicating Afren's liquidity and debt restructuring, in our view.

Seplat, a Nigerian exploration and production company, has approached Afren regarding a potential merger. Seplat has until Feb. 13, 2015, to make a formal offer. However, the deadline has shifted twice, and we think it could be pushed back again in the future. We will take into account this potential major development in any future rating actions.