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UK Banks (BANK)     

BigTed - 17 Mar 2008 09:47

Not sure if this thread will catch on, because no-one here seems to have much to say about individual british banks, but thought i would add this header to see if we could discuss dividend yields, exposure to sup-prime, good ones, bad ones, take-over targets, when the crisis will end? do you think they have learnt their lesson? I, for one, as a property developer have seen first hand how much stricter they have become with lending habits, struggling to get decent rates for re-mortgaging, basically they appear scared to lend to anyone.


Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=HSBA&SChart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=BARC&SChart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=LLOY&SChart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RBS&Si

BigTed - 19 Mar 2008 11:08 - 33 of 331

Shares of UK mortgage lender HBOS plummeted more than 18% in early London trade on rumors that the company approached the BoE for emergency funding. HBOS spokesmen denied those rumors but markets remained jumpy and turbulent in the wake of the Bear Stearns disaster, with traders preferring to sell first and ask questions later.

Cable dropped nearly two big figures on the HBOS news while the latest economic data from UK only added insult to injury by showing a slowdown in UK labor markets. UK employment data showed a substantial weakening in labor demand as unemployment rolls were reduced by only -2.8K versus -5.0K expected while wages grew at 3.7% annual rates versus 3.8% forecast. Furthermore, BoE minutes which were expected to produce an 8-1 vote revealed a vote of 7-2 instead suggesting serious concerns about economic growth

Given the recent turmoil in financial markets it now appears that the BoE will be much more likely to ease at the next MPC meeting in April. and if tomorrows UK Retail Sales data shows a more than forecast decline, chances of a 50bp rather than merely a 25bp one will increase markedly. Tonights news clearly creates additional risks for the pound going forward as UK may become the next G-10 member to follow the US into a recession.

halifax - 19 Mar 2008 18:51 - 34 of 331

IG will double its margin requirements on most bank positions next week.

BigTed - 20 Mar 2008 20:26 - 35 of 331

TD Waterhouse just released new margin call requirements, interesting that most have gone from 5% to 10%, however HBOS gone to 20% margin required...

BigTed - 25 Mar 2008 08:39 - 36 of 331

So, question is, a shorting opertunity???

scotinvestor - 25 Mar 2008 09:06 - 37 of 331

shut up ted.

if thats what u wat, then go ahead and bankrupt britain....its a crap country anyway....most decent brits leve now anyway

BigTed - 25 Mar 2008 09:23 - 38 of 331

Just interested, like most here, in making money, the banks have brought it upon themselves, so no real need for any obscenities is there...?

spitfire43 - 01 Apr 2008 22:47 - 39 of 331

Interesting to see the strengh of tha banks at the moment, unfortunately I feel this is a false rally. Will keep an eye on a reverse in the markets for possible shorts, may look at AL. this time. But also Housebuilders could be tempting.

spitfire43 - 03 Apr 2008 14:41 - 40 of 331

Funny how sentiment can change so quickly, can't see how they can rank hbos above lloy, but what does anyone know any more. see below.

Goldman Sachs has raised HBOS Plc. to 'buy' from 'neutral' and downgraded Lloyds TSB Group Plc. to 'sell' from 'neutral' in a banking review, market sources said.

In a note published this morning, Goldman Sachs said that it is upgrading HBOS as it believes that liquidity concerns have been overdone and more than just the structural changes the domestic UK banks are facing are priced in.

The broker added that it is downgrading Lloyds TSB as it believes that recent outperformance more than reflects its perceived defensiveness.

Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs said that Barclays has been removed from its conviction list but remains a 'sell' as current prices do not reflect declining profitability and likely further earnings downgrades.

halifax - 03 Apr 2008 17:33 - 41 of 331

Goldman Suchs must hold an awful lot of HBOS shares.

spitfire43 - 03 Apr 2008 18:27 - 42 of 331

You may be right, even though HBOS directors have brought in last week, I wouldn't feel comfortable following them. I would still like to buy lloy lower down.

mitzy - 13 Apr 2008 20:46 - 43 of 331

B&B next target for the shorters following HBOS last month.

Guscavalier - 13 Apr 2008 21:11 - 44 of 331

Speculation in the press (business section of S/Times) that B&B may be looking to have a rights issue.

mitzy - 13 Apr 2008 21:25 - 45 of 331

Bad news not good for shareholders tomorrow will not be a good day for investors.

spitfire43 - 13 Apr 2008 22:16 - 46 of 331

I must admit if I was a longterm shareholder in B&B, I would be happy to have a rights issue. Yes the shares would go down on the announcement, but for the longterm, at least they could get in first and take positive action. Best to take action now, rather than leave it to late.

Guscavalier - 14 Apr 2008 07:41 - 47 of 331

rights issue has been denied by the Company. However, for both the S/Times and S/Telegraph to have mentioned the possibility, presumably there was some close contact . If there has been a leak, this in itself could ruin the timing of any issue since a fall in sp, as a result,could erode the discount the issue price would have with the issue price. I do not hold bb. but would agree with spitfire43 that it is better to take action sooner than later if further funds are required. Large institutional holders I believe include LloydsTSB and Legal and General, so I suspect they would have to agree with any proposal in order to gauge support.

spitfire43 - 14 Apr 2008 08:40 - 48 of 331

Have you noticed that when times are good, companies can't be bothered going to share holders for a rights issue. They just go for placings, so denying small share holders the chance to take part.

Paragon had a rights issue a few month's back, and it was taken up with over 90% acceptance, I would like to see the press run some articles on this, and remind companies when the good times return.

mitzy - 14 Apr 2008 20:54 - 49 of 331

Golman Sachs warn of bloodbath in coming months.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/14/bcngold114.xml

spitfire43 - 14 Apr 2008 22:20 - 50 of 331

Thanks mitzy, a little cheery bedtime reading for me.

Interesting article, and I'm sure it's spot on unfortunately, I will continue to slowly buy into high yielding blue chips, but very slowly over the next 18/24 month's. And go long or short when the opportunity present's.

I seem to be more bearish as time goes by, hope I can snap out of it when time is right. If not may have to see a doctor, and ask him to give me something.

Now to bed with a nice pot of honey.........

mitzy - 14 Apr 2008 22:28 - 51 of 331

Its funny but GS were predicting a oil price of $110 a barrel in 2010... its that today in fact its $112 they got that one wrong.

Best short the banks and airlines and hold oils.

cheers.

scotinvestor - 15 Apr 2008 01:16 - 52 of 331

banks are also not negotiating on any credit card debts............so unless you can pay, then you will go bankrupt.
i notice credit card debt has gone from 1.2 billion to 2.8billion.
Now with HBOS having majority of housing mortgages, if people are struggling with paying, then they might use credit card.......and so the struggle continues.

i can see hundreds of thousands losing their homes.........or being bankrupt either this year or next year...........oh, and poles and other folk will soon see uk aint that great and go back home where theres plenty of work.
And is weak too so that helps people leave uk too.....all people leaving will drive house prices down much further.....and these folk mortgsages getting higher and higher but property getting less and less.

Theres predictions of at least 25% down in house prices and up to 50%.
Maybe i'll buy a house in 18 months or 2 years time when half a million folk are out on the street.
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