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Ashstead Group - a time to buy? (AHT)     

ainsoph - 10 Feb 2003 14:25

bought a few of these a week or two ahead of their Interims - have moved up ever since :-)) but believe there is still some way to go yet - currently 31/33p they go xd on the 26th feb.

I see capital group are still adding - another 2.7 million shares - making 20 million in total or 6.15%



ains

ainsoph - 13 Mar 2003 14:49 - 33 of 129

I was talking from the time I bought rather than any long term situation ..... we don't know what and why the employee did what is claimed ..... yet

Broker talking about reducing at 2p a share is a little foolish imho

ains



03/13 13:09
Ashtead Says It Defaulted on Bank Loan; Shares Plunge (Update2)
By Duncan Hooper


Leatherhead, England, March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Ashtead Plc, the U.K. equipment-rental company that overstated profit this year and in 2002, said it defaulted on a bank loan and won't pay interest due today. Its shares fell as much as 71 percent.

Ashtead, which has about 431 million pounds ($692 million) of bank debt, plans to meet lenders next week. The company said three days ago an accounting error at its U.S. division may have inflated profit by about 5 million pounds over two years.

``It sounds like it's rather more concerning than the initial warning implied'' said Hilary Cook, director of investment strategy at Barclays Private Clients, which manages about 25 billion pounds including Ashtead stock. ``It would be a brave man who bought these shares.''

Ashtead, which was founded in 1947 and rents industrial gear such as wood-chippers and diggers, renegotiated agreements with lenders and cut debt last year after demand in the U.S. slumped. Its accounting disclosure follows last month's scandal at Royal Ahold NV, the Dutch retailer that ousted top executives after discovering earnings at its U.S. unit were inflated.

Ashtead shares, which have lost 90 percent this week, fell as much as 5.5p to 2.25p, and were at 2.75p at 12:30 p.m. The company is worth about 8.9 million pounds at the current share price.

``As accounting investigations are ongoing, the company is unable to provide definitively the usual representations and warranties required in connection with the rollover today of advances under its senior bank facility,'' the company said in a Regulatory News Service statement.

$825 Million

Calls seeking comment from Chief Executive Officer George Burnett, Finance Director Ian Robson weren't immediately returned. Andrew Grant at Tulchan Communications, which handles press relations for Ashtead, didn't return a call seeking comment.

Ashtead said in May last year it amended terms relating to an $825 million loan facility to ``provide great flexibility.'' The company didn't give details of the loan or terms today. Ashtead had 572 million pounds of debt on Jan. 10, according to the company's first-half earnings statement.

Today's announcement ``makes the position of the board pretty untenable,'' said Emma Ormond, an analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd., who has a ``reduce'' rating on the stock.

Costs at Ashtead's Sunbelt division may have been misstated by 2.5 million pounds in the year ended April 2002 and by the same amount this fiscal year, the company said Monday. Ashtead also said profit this year will be ``well below'' analysts' forecasts.

Ashtead in January posted first-half net income of 8.6 million pounds, or 2.7p a share, compared with a loss of 2 million pounds, or 0.6p, in the year-earlier period. Revenue from its U.S. business amounts to about two thirds of the total.

Ashtead bought BET USA three years ago for 322 million pounds to expand in the U.S., where the rental market had quadrupled over the previous decade. The purchase made Ashtead the fourth-largest operator in its industry in North America.

In September last year the company rejected an approach from two venture capital firms, who offered between 60 and 75 pence a share, valuing Ashtead stock at about 115 million pounds.

Pugugly - 13 Mar 2003 15:08 - 34 of 129

"In the light of the trading situation, and prior to any restatement of the
accounts that may be required following conclusion of the accounting
investigation, profits in the current year are likely to be well below market
expectations.

Note profits will be well below expectations BEFORE this exceptional".

That is if I have read the rns of yesterday correctly - but dyor etc

As posted in the other place yesterday this is looking more and more likely to be a job for Carey Street imo.

ainsoph - 13 Mar 2003 15:18 - 35 of 129

Must admit at the time I put a different spin on it and still not sure what is meant ...... with no one answering the phones - guess we wait

Tempted to have a small punt at some time - maybe 100K or so



ains

goodfella - 13 Mar 2003 21:50 - 36 of 129

Ainsoph is getting a lot better at this game

Usually his stock picks take a few months to lose 90% of their value.

He managed this one in just a few weeks.

That was from his latest average down buy price and of course as per usual he was buying from a lot lot higher,

goodfella - 12 Mar'03 - 19:32 - 28 of 34 edit



Ainsoph

Are you bankrupt yet..........you have not answered the question.



ainsoph - 07 Jan'03 - 22:01 - 119 of 255


Why would I sell out - you goodfellas are such losers ..... lol


I think there are some t trades in there dart


Yes he is a class act.

ainsoph - 13 Mar 2003 23:03 - 37 of 129

You have a real problem goodfellas ..... if I recall - you laughed because I bought at 20p or so and was upset when I sold a few before the interims and a few afterwards at good profits.


Never mind ..... I kept some and I lost money a day or so ago - it happens and has happened .... now I move on. I didn't like taking a hit but it was one share amongst over 40 and I had taken a few profits .... that's life. Move on


ainsoph


PS .... BTW when are OOM going to be worthless? ..... it's been a while now and still get over 40p for them

biffa18 - 14 Mar 2003 08:01 - 38 of 129

some brokers now saying not as bad as first appeared what a suprise some people are going to make a fortune out of this if the shares recover hope so i have bought a large wedge , bankers dont appear in any hurry to sort things out if their not meeting to next week

ainsoph - 14 Mar 2003 08:10 - 39 of 129

I wasn't going to say anything but the bankers are not upset about the interest thingy and talk is of the problem being less rather than more ..... we will see


biffa18 - 14 Mar 2003 08:28 - 40 of 129

bought 250000 this morning this is going to be easy money

ainsoph - 14 Mar 2003 08:46 - 41 of 129

there are risks but if it comes off it will a multi bagger

SAll down to the bankers next week and also whether they find less or more probs than reported


ains

ainsoph - 14 Mar 2003 09:22 - 42 of 129

up 30%

ainsoph - 14 Mar 2003 09:28 - 43 of 129

up 50%

ainsoph - 14 Mar 2003 09:29 - 44 of 129

up 60% ..... where are the goodfellas when you want to have a laugh :-))

ainsoph - 14 Mar 2003 09:34 - 45 of 129

up 70%

moneyman - 14 Mar 2003 09:38 - 46 of 129

Knew this was a winner at 2.5p

ainsoph - 14 Mar 2003 09:41 - 47 of 129

:-)) ..... now 80% up

goodfella - 14 Mar 2003 10:17 - 48 of 129

Thats great Ainsoph

It inly has to go up 1000% to get you back to break even.............LOL you muppet

ainsoph - 14 Mar 2003 10:30 - 49 of 129

you are the muppet goodfella .... fancy knocking a share minutes ahead of it virtually doubling .....


I had to switch my alerts off this morning on the blue side .... couldn't keep up with the gains - my portfolio software was running nearly 30 secs behind :-))


ainsoph - 14 Mar 2003 14:40 - 50 of 129

Plus 90% :-))

biffa18 - 14 Mar 2003 15:07 - 51 of 129

my 350000 plus at 2.75 are looking very good at this time thanks

moneyman - 14 Mar 2003 18:26 - 52 of 129

Ashtead slides after default on bank covenants
By Sophy Buckley and Aline van Duyn
Published: March 13 2003 10:19 | Last Updated: March 13 2003 10:19


Ashtead, the plant hire group, on Thursday defaulted on a $200m loan and suspended interest payments, causing a 67 per cent fall in the value of its shares.


The slump follows heavy falls this week - they started the week at 28p and closed on Thursday at 2p - after the group on Monday revealed balance sheet problems at Sunbelt, its US subsidiary, and warned that trading had deteriorated sharply and the whole company would fail to meet full-year expectations.

The company, which had total debt of 644m ($1bn) in October 31, said on Thursday the default stemmed from the problems with the US accounts.

"The company is unable to provide definitively the usual representations and warranties required in connection with the rollover of advances under its senior bank facility," it said.

It is meeting its bankers, a syndicate of 40 led by Bank of America, Lloyds and Citibank, at the end of next week. One investor said the timing of the meeting suggested the bankers were not too concerned.

Indeed, a banker involved called the timing of the rollover bad luck and predicted that assuming nothing bigger was uncovered in the accounts they would be able to refinance the debt.

But on Thursday, investors traded 60m shares, pushing the value down to an all-time low amid criticism of the company's past accountancy practices, including its treatment of depreciation and old plant disposals.

"I am beginning to question everything I see [in the accounts]. I wonder whether analysts have been misled," said one analyst.

After Monday's announcement, WestLB Panmure, the house broker, cut its full-year estimates from 23.5m to 14m and its free cash flow by 9m to 35m.

The company said on Thursday it was still profitable and generating free cash flow. It said the bankers had not requested an earlier meeting and it expected to make the interest payment in days.

Ashtead is understood to have called in Close Brothers to advise it on a new capital structure. Meanwhile, it is using an overdraft facility from Bank of America and Lloyds for short-term finance.


Ashtead: a final straw?
Sophy Buckley and Andrea Felsted
Published: March 13 2003 20:22 | Last Updated: March 13 2003 20:22


George Burnett and his fellow directors at Ashtead have spent more than 430m ($693.5m) on acquisitions since 1990, yet on Thursday the shares fell to 2p, valuing the plant hire group at 8m.


The group, whose books came under scrutiny a few years ago after observers questioned some of its accounting practices, spent the cash building market share in the UK and US and in the process built up a mountain of debt - 644m on October 31.

Such high levels of debt, combined with Monday's fresh accounting problems, this time at a US subsidiary, and a warning about current trading, had put the market into a bit of a tailspin. But Thursday's news that it had defaulted - albeit technically - and decided not to pay interest for the time being was the final straw.

The company says the decision not to pay the interest is based on practical reasons and not related to its ability to pay.

Analysts accept the reason for the default, caused directly by the mis-statement of costs on its US balance sheets, but they want to know more about why the company decided to suspend interest payments, as it sends such a bad signal.

Their concerns seem to stem from Ashtead's past accounting problems, when the company would use plant for perhaps a year before paying for it. In 1999, the issue was raised and it was pointed out that, in good times, this boosts profits but that the practice could cause problems if demand fell.

There were also concerns that the company did not adequately depreciate its capital.

Last year, after a review instituted by Ian Robson, the finance director who arrived in 2000, the company adopted FRS 18 accounting rules for its accounts from April 2001. This went a long way towards allaying observers' concerns, particularly when it took a 44.4m charge for exceptional costs and goodwill write-downs in the year to April 2002, tipping it 15.5m into the red.

"It seemed like they could start again with a clean slate," says one analysts. "But perhaps that is not the case. I am starting to question everything I see. I wonder whether analysts have been misled."

If the analysts are wondering whether they can believe their eyes, so must investors.

They have seen the shares fall from a peak in May 1998 of 284p, valuing the group at 861m, to Thursday's nominal value. They have also had to listen as the board tried to explain why it rejected bid approaches on three occasions without informing them. The last time, in April 2002, the company received an indicative approach of between 60p and 75p a share from two US private equity groups.

With the shares so low and the company's broker estimating net asset value excluding goodwill of 75m, or 22p per share, a bid could be back on the agenda.

Shareholders can also take comfort from several other factors.

One investor pointed out that Ashtead was not meeting its bankers until next week.

"If it was awful they would meet sooner," he said.

There is also a strong chairman, Henry Staunton, who Samuel Johar, chairman of headhunter Buchanan Harvey & Co, says has all the right skills to manage the crisis.

However, investors and bankers may wonder how the chairman, a former senior partner at Price Waterhouse, and finance director of Granada, let things get to this sorry state.

"He's a man of pretty sound judgment," says Mr Johar.

"Therefore in a crisis he is more likely to make the right decisions rather than the wrong ones. He can be a bit of a stabilising force."

Long-suffering shareholders will be hoping he is right.
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