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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

mostrader - 04 Feb 2005 07:16 - 3314 of 11056

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
104,41. USD JPY is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility decreases. Oscillators are neutral. The price should find a resistance below 105,00. We won't take a position.
Medium term (Daily)
USD JPY is in an downtrend directed by daily exponential moving averages. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are drawing the trend. MACD is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should continue to gather momentum.
Long term (Weekly)
USD JPY is in an downtrend directed by Weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. MACD is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should resume with more vigor..
Resistances
104,70 - 105,00
Supports
104,40 - 104,30 - 103,80
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

mostrader - 04 Feb 2005 07:16 - 3315 of 11056

USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
1,2026. USD CHF broke 1,1950 resistance. USD CHF is in an uptrend supported by 4H exponential moving averages. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. RSI is in a bullish configuration. The uptrend should continue to gather momentum. The price should find a support above 1,2000. We could take a long position at 1,2000. We will put the stop loss below 1,1965 (-35 pips). The targets are 1,2150 ST (+150 pips) 1,2200 MT (+200 pips) 1,2700 LT (+700 pips).
Medium term (Daily)
USD CHF is in an downtrend directed by daily exponential moving averages. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are tightened. daily MACD crosses and gives a positive signal. The price should continue to consolidate. The price should find a resistance below 1,1800.
Long term (Weekly)
USD CHF is in an downtrend directed by weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are drawing the trend. RSI is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should continue on 1,1200 support.
Resistances
1,2055 - 1,2150
Supports
1,2010 - 1,2000 - 1,1970 - 1,1950

mostrader - 04 Feb 2005 07:17 - 3316 of 11056

EUR/USD

The Euro slipped on the major support level of 1.2945 on yesterday, something we exected since Sunday when we published
our weekly outlook. Today we keep our eyes on the major events. Support starts and 1.2945 followed by 1.2925 and 1.2881.
Resistance is seen at 1.3026. Additional gains will target the 1.3075/85 area. Current quote is 1.2974

Recommended trades:

Long at 1.2960, t/p at 1.3, s/l @1.2945 only if the entry level will be valid during the first two hours of the European
Session.

Short at 1.2940, t/p @1.29, s/l @1.2955 - we will try a breakout scenario for the US Session when the news will be released

USD/JPY

Major support is seen at 104,37 the pair is currently trading above its EMA(50) and we expect a small retracement before, probably,
target the 105 area. Resistance is seen at 105.05 followed by 105.55. Current quote is 104.43

Recommended trades:

Long at 104.10/20, t/p @104.60, s/l @103.90

mg - 04 Feb 2005 07:21 - 3317 of 11056

Placed a short on cable @ 18820 last night - after rather a lot of liquid refreshment. Was pleased to wake up to it not looking as bad as I thouhgt it might - so I'm sticking with it - for the time being.

Watching out for the 07:30 effect, though - could blow me out of it.

Seymour Clearly - 04 Feb 2005 07:25 - 3318 of 11056

Morning, I'm long cable from 18811, first trade, hoping for the 7.30 effect ;-)

edit not the most intelligent of trades with hindsight, should have waited for 8800

mostrader - 04 Feb 2005 07:30 - 3319 of 11056

prob going to be fairly quiet seymour b4 nfp/greenspan g7 weekwnd..wud not surprise if we treid to test yesterdays low 8770..but then push higher..

Seymour Clearly - 04 Feb 2005 07:33 - 3320 of 11056

Thanks Mos.

Seymour Clearly - 04 Feb 2005 07:47 - 3321 of 11056

Closed it flat (well +2 actually)

mg - 04 Feb 2005 07:48 - 3322 of 11056

SC
Looking tricky this morning - am thinking of closing out for a few. Not very confident about direction ;(

[EDIT Closed out for a tiny few - might look to go long at some stage - when the fog lifts]

Seymour Clearly - 04 Feb 2005 07:52 - 3323 of 11056

Limit buy in @ 18780, stop @ 60 off to work now - know what you mean about direction!

mg - 04 Feb 2005 07:54 - 3324 of 11056

That limit buy looks good for a few. Good luck

chocolat - 04 Feb 2005 08:46 - 3325 of 11056

I did what you did last night mg - 18833 - still short
and very dopey :S

mg - 04 Feb 2005 08:51 - 3326 of 11056

Oi - who are you calling short and very dopey - I resemble that remark ;)

This morning is very, very boring - off to do some day job type stuff - so it must be bad !!

Out playing Golf this afternoon so I'll miss the excitement at 13:30 and beyond.

Be careful out there.

jeffmack - 04 Feb 2005 08:54 - 3327 of 11056

You lucky b%stard MG, I wish I was out playing golf

mg - 04 Feb 2005 08:59 - 3328 of 11056

Luck doesn't come into it - I'm just a b%stard ;)

Get on with your work - wage slave !!!!

mostrader - 04 Feb 2005 09:05 - 3329 of 11056

pro going 2 stay out of it this morning banging hangover....

hodgins - 04 Feb 2005 09:22 - 3330 of 11056

1.30 maybe 220 rather than possibly anticipated 17/80. Bonds wouldn't like that but $US certainly would.
Maybe $US drifts down before then but then strongly up. Greenspan here at 1.45 also in the mix so high potential volatility.
Fore!!!

mostrader - 04 Feb 2005 09:26 - 3331 of 11056

yep hodg agree keeping my powder dry till then..may leave a couple of entry orders over figs..to grab any usd jump..

chocolat - 04 Feb 2005 09:29 - 3332 of 11056

I'm out of it too
18813

Burning the toast's more fun than this

mg - 04 Feb 2005 10:48 - 3333 of 11056

Oooops
Glad I wasn't still holding my short for that push up. Sign of things to come perhaps.

Bob
Had an email back from Scrip - he's on - but claiming an old war wound may affect him - but, he's an out and out bandit - and anyway I've got a gammy leg too ;(

He's going to email Pin to make sure we're all on message ;)

Choccy
At least you got a few points to spread on your toast ;)
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