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Thanks for that bakko

maybe worth watching to see if any value can be made from the draw

I've been trawling around for some value and have come up with some very interesting stats which I'll post up later

Button on pole in Canada yet still 11/12 to win! If he gets to the first corner first I'll be green straight away surely.

Kernow

not a big F1 fan but i assume it is because he has not finished in the points all season which i guess means the car has been unreliable. if that is the case i would be looking to get green early if you can

Kernow

just had a look at a few of the other markets. Button is 1.45/1.52 to finish the race and more interestingly 1.82/1.86 to be leading after 1 lap

Agree 100% although their race ban was partly the problem.

Button appears to have gear box probs on the warm up lap Kernow

Kernow

hope you managed to get out without too much of a hit

70 lap race ...but initial plan gone wrong

With Wimbledon just round the corner, I've found statistics from last year which will be of interest to those who'll be keen to profit this time around. As mentioned earlier the draw will be this Thursday, the home page being:
http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/

However, below are from Wimbledon 2004
Men's Singles Stats
Round 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Q-F S-F F

Matches Played 64 32 16 8 4 2 1
5 Set Matches 11 8 1 0 0 0 0
4 Set Matches 22 10 5 4 1 1 1
3 Set Matches 31 14 10 3 3 1 0
Sets Played 236 122 55 27 13 7 4
Tie Breaks Played 27 19 11 6 4 1 1
Total Games 2343 1240 563 281 132 74 45
Winners 5099 2779 1280 695 287 176 106
Return Games Won 415 232 82 47 22 12 9
Server Points Won 9436 4941 2315 1165 548 303 179
Unforced Errors 3194 1630 676 331 193 111 60
Total Points 14527 7616 3403 1757 834 482 287
First Serves In 9148 4825 2114 1156 517 273 176
% 1st Serves In 62 63 62 65 61 56 61
Total Aces 1242 627 394 183 68 32 23
Total Double Faults 664 287 137 52 28 19 8
1st Serve Pts Won 6682 3494 1640 838 368 199 124
% 1st Srv Pts Won 73 72 77 72 71 72 70
% 2nd Srv Pts Won 51 51 52 54 56 49 49

ACES
Rank Player Country Matches Aces
1 J.Johansson SWE 4 125
2 I.Karlovic CRO 4 110
3 A.Roddick USA 7 98
4 M.Philippoussis AUS 4 95
5 M.Ancic CRO 6 78
6 C.Moya ESP 4 73
7 R.Federer SUI 7 66
8 J-M.Gambill USA 3 55
9 F.Lopez ESP 3 54
10 S.Grosjean FRA 6 53
11 F.Mayer GER 5 52
12 T.Henman GBR 5 50
13 G.Ivanisevic CRO 3 47
14 T.Enqvist SWE 3 44
15= S.Schalken NED 5 43
15= M.Verkerk NED 2 43
17 G.Rusedski GBR 2 42
18 R.Ginepri USA 4 39
19= M.Fish USA 2 38
19= J.Bjorkman SWE 3 38

Serve speed leaders
Rank Player Country Serve Speed MPH Serve Speed km/h
1 A.Roddick USA 146 235
2 G.Rusedski GBR 141 227
3= C.Moya ESP 140 225
3= I.Karlovic CRO 140 225
5= J.Johansson SWE 139 224
5= M.Philippoussis AUS 139 224
5= M.Verkerk NED 139 224
8 T.Dent USA 137 220
9 I.Labadze GEO 136 219
10= M.Ancic CRO 135 217
10= F.Lopez ESP 135 217
10= M.Safin RUS 135 217
13= T.Ascione FRA 134 216
13= T.Johansson SWE 134 216
13= M.Mirnyi BLR 134 216
13= J.Bjorkman SWE 134 216
13= D.Tursunov RUS 134 216
18= G.Ivanisevic CRO 133 214
18= S.Grosjean FRA 133 214
18= R.Soderling SWE 133 214

The above is just a selection. There's a treasure trove of information at:
http://championships.wimbledon.org/en_GB/index.html
Just click onto Players followed by Players Statistics.

Grass will obviously suit the players with the biggest and fastest serves and those whose games are based on serve/volley or have the ability to do this.
It's interesting to see that J.Johannson(not the same Johannson that competed at Queens this week) and Karlovic produced 125 and 110 aces respectively. More impressively, these were achieved over 4 matches whereas Roddick made 98 in 7 matches. From this analysis my value bets would be on the big hitters such as Karlovic, J,Johannson and Ancic. Odds are currently available at 32,60 and 26 respectively. I don't expect any of these to win but at least 1 or 2 to make at least the 3rd round or beyond where its possible to green up for a profit.

I don't know too much about Johannson but Karlovic has impressed me with his massive serve during Queens this week. He wiped Hewitt's arse and lost in the final to Roddick today. Ancic also has a game which is ideal on grass and got to the semis 2yrs ago as an unseeded 19yr old who dumped out Henman in QFs.

My final value bet is Grosjean whose available at 80. He has a good Wimbledon pedigree having got to the semis in 2003 and 2004. Again, there's a good chance to green up using Scrip's "tournament collapse method".

Now, to the serious potential winners:

Federer..... On grass there's nobody to touch him as reflected in his odds of 1.75. An odds on favourite. He's not lost on grass for 3yrs and has just beaten Safin on grass in a final in Germany today. This was his 29th consecutive title on grass. I'm reluctant to back at these low odds but if anybody is keen to do so prior to the tournament starting then just be aware that his odds probably won't shorten until at least the 4th round. During the French open his price was 3.55 at the outset but drifted out to 3.65 even though he'd beaten off 3 opponents.
He's not won a Grand Slam this year and will be desperate to claim Wimbledon.

Roddick..... Expected to be seeded no 2. Has a big serve but IMO doesn't have the all round game to succeed on grass. He has the tendency to cruise along in convincing fashion and when the going gets tough will fall apart as witnessed in Paris 2wks ago where he lost to a lowly opponent having been 2 sets up. However, I would expect him to get to at least the QFs or semis.

Nadal.... This teenage prodigy has won everything in sight this year including the French Open. However, grass is not his surface and I can't see him threatening any decent grass court player. He went out at the 1st round in Germany(grass) earlier this week. His current price is way out at 27.(French open odds were 4.6).

Safin.... He certainly has the ability to win. He's the Australian Open champion and has the game for grass. But has a big mental problem. If his mindset is OK he can beat anybody playing sublime tennis. The problem is which Safin will we see this year?

Hewitt.... Been out injured for the last 3 months. Lost in convincing fashion to Karlovic at Queen's this week.

Henman.... Its strange to see this name on Betfair amongst the top 6 or so favourites?? IMO he's Crap with a capital C!!

won a pound!

Kernow

a bad job turned good -well done

Bakko

thanks for that - most interesting. Out thoughts are quite similar - i had 3 outsiders to back; karlovic, grosjean and Ancic. I have one huge lay - Henman.

Like you will be amazed if Federer doesnt win the title and to me 1.75 looks on the generous side, though as you say, no need to get involved too early in the tournament. The only reason this may be different to the french is you tend to get a few more upsets early at wimbledon due to the nature of the service and if there are a couple of shocks early on then federer may well shorten significantly.

I see Karlovic isnt even in the top 32 so will face a seed early on - i dare say his name will be eagerly watched in the draw by the seeds with the hope of avoiding him

Afternoon Everyone,

Very quiet on the tennis front this week with the big guns getting a rest before Wimbledon next week.
Just a couple of low key grass tournaments on. See:
http://www.ordina-open.nl/
http://nottingham.lta.org.uk/Home.htm

It'll be interesting to keep an eye on Antic and Karlovic who are competing and are favourites to win their respective events.

Is Martina making a comeback? Just noticed shes on court (ordina) playing in the singles.

Sealed,

Yep, It's the Martina Navratilova. Apparently, she's on a wildcard.

Scrip,
Have you come to a decision yet about (release date/price)for your Bet Angel Pro version ?????

Anyone here using AB Pro on the horses this pm.

Have just logged on and all the race cards appear to be distorted by an hour. that is - the 15.45 at brighton card is on AB Pro as the 14.45

is it just me or others got this prob.

Just logged on and seems OK to me Steve.

Bak,

Thanks for the Wimbledon summary. Really helpful.

Should be a great opportunity to earn a few bob as I expect the liquidity will be good.

I've had a small wager on Nadal at 27's. I may be wrong but can somebody that good on clay be so bad on grass? Maybe they can but I think it's worth a small gamble on him doing better than expected.

Does anyone know if the Betfair.com/lite site is down. I cant get it on my PDA