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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

cynic - 03 Aug 2007 08:50 - 335 of 504

put another way .... rarely slagging on this thread, except between D and myself for a short evening!

maddoctor - 03 Aug 2007 08:54 - 336 of 504

B wave on the dow anybody?

cynic - 03 Aug 2007 09:12 - 337 of 504

what does that mean? ....... my gut feel about Dow today is that it will be down >100 by close tonight as people take some rather unexpected profits from the week and as a precaution against yet more sub-prime lenders going belly up

maddoctor - 03 Aug 2007 09:15 - 338 of 504

cynic , falls generally go , down A , up B(but not as much as the fall) , then C down (greater than A fall)

hope that helps

goldfinger - 03 Aug 2007 10:58 - 339 of 504

Your thoughts on this one PTH Cynic please?.

Nb, trading on a low forward multiple of just over 9 times to end of sept 2007 PEG 0.6

chocolat - 03 Aug 2007 12:49 - 340 of 504

Put another way, cynic, you're really just a pussy cat ;)

Maddoctor, it hasn't escaped my notice that you're into EW stuff :)
Me, well I never got past page 3 of the Prechter bible, but if you're interested in any of the prognostications by various EWers that are regularly sent to me, pm me.

maddoctor - 03 Aug 2007 12:51 - 341 of 504

choccy , just keep a look in on the site since they often have interesting articles.

lost faith bigtime when they kept calling a bear market for 3 years from 2003 . cost me bigtime! wrong side of the market!

they did however call the subprime market 1 year before anybody else

cynic - 03 Aug 2007 13:03 - 342 of 504

choccy .... please don't start talking about pussy .... it'll get me overexcited!

chocolat - 03 Aug 2007 13:07 - 343 of 504

Well this stuff isn't from the site - it's from people like Robert McHugh - who always remembers to put PhD after his name :) and Bill Adlard - who rather refreshingly isn't American.

I also recall TomH calling the bear market, following his mentor Wilder's wild musings.

Nah - everyone's been calling the subprime thingie :)

chocolat - 03 Aug 2007 13:24 - 344 of 504

Blimey, cynic - I thought it was just culinary delights that tickled your extremities ;)

cynic - 03 Aug 2007 15:01 - 345 of 504

many things oral have great appeal!
meanwhile, my little Dow short is heading in the right direction and may even increase it

btw, CTH (see thread) gets curiouser and curiouser, as said Alice

maggiebt4 - 03 Aug 2007 17:17 - 346 of 504

Thanks for advice Dy have made a note and even understand Thought I might get a blue dot today but sp took a nose dive when yanks opened. I live in hope!!!

ptholden - 03 Aug 2007 20:32 - 347 of 504

maggie, whilst I do not use bar reversals and I'm not knocking the concept, in fact I do agree with Dynamix, don't hang your hat on one particular concept of TA. Like everything, it works until it doesn't work anymore. All methods and indicators have their place in time, deciding when to use each is crucial to success. If any combination of system were anywhere near infallible we would all be doing the same thing and millionaires. There's a lot more to a system than just a blue dot.

pth

maddoctor - 03 Aug 2007 21:00 - 348 of 504

bloody

dynamix - 03 Aug 2007 21:09 - 349 of 504

pth - price action is what makes the indicators turn. theres many other price indicators on offer (like 123's etc) but if you use it WITH a lagging indicator it gives it more weight. like you said, theres more to a system than blue dots, thats why in the same picture I posted an MACD which was above zero and a trend line to follow.

The beauty of price action entry signals, they give you a stop loss, or in other words a point at which you know the trade is wrong and time to get out.

With a lagging indicator, by time the indicator turns, the price could have crashed far further than where you wanted to exit

cynic - 03 Aug 2007 21:17 - 350 of 504

sorry chaps, but right call on Dow even if i did set my limit a bit high

ptholden - 03 Aug 2007 21:34 - 351 of 504

dynamix, I agree entirely with your comments, the point I was making to maggie (and you also agree) is not to rely on just one 'system'. When I first started studying TA I got hung up on MACD bullish / bearish divergence nearly to the exclsuion of everything else, it didn't take me long to realise it wasn't a good system! (Incidentally, I still have an awful lot of TA to study). Finding your posts very useful btw, as I am sure are others :)

pth

PS Well done Mr Cynic.

cynic - 03 Aug 2007 22:49 - 352 of 504

I must guard against hubris, for last 4 calls i have made on Dow have proved profitable ..... confess i fear for Monday though after hours, index looks to have recovered above 13205 which is potentially quite critical, even though i had set my limit 60 points higher where there was a lesser support - non-existent it would seem!

maggiebt4 - 04 Aug 2007 01:27 - 353 of 504

Gentlemen? this is the best thread I've read on this BB because it is giving me the tools to make informed decisions. Much better than "Technical Advice for Dummies" book. I find all of the info interesting and try to understand the concepts. I have already worked out that the best way is to use all the TA that I understand. Having said that I'm only a beginner and I really do appreciate the time spent by all of you to point me in the right direction. Please don't stop.
PS I think one concept I can't get my brain around is patience

Pth What happened with the last trend line, is it working would appreciate an update - in your own time
Absolutely brilliant thread so says Harvey wallbanger sss

cynic - 04 Aug 2007 08:53 - 354 of 504

i think the markets in general could be in for a very torrid few weeks unless Dow has an unexpectedly strong day on Monday ....... if there is no further bad news on sub-prime etc over w/e that is just conceivable, though i shall not be betting on it until there is some positive indication ..... Dow after close just about struggled back over the potentially critical 13205 mark.
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