bosley
- 20 Feb 2004 09:34
stockdog
- 23 Apr 2005 08:52
- 3353 of 27111
eric, you're right the roly poly gammon and spinach refers of course to much the same thing as hey nonny nonny nonny no from the 17th century and is too risqufor this thread, so have changed it to more appropriately pre-watershed lyrics!
Sharesure
- 23 Apr 2005 12:15
- 3354 of 27111
Stanelco AGM extra comments
Funding: My notes on this were that the chairman said that the placing last year was sufficient to fund the current business model; a further placing or rights issue was not on the agenda. I would distrust a chairman who says he would never need further funds and SEOs chairman quite rightly did not do this because there could be future circumstances/opportunities which might be in the companys interests. He also said they had opted for a placing last year because it was a cheaper route to more funds. I suspect he also had in mind that a rights issue at that stage of the RF development and with the impending litigation would have been hard to get away without denting confidence and causing the share price at the time to suffer. The placing would also have helped confidence in that convincing institutions to get involved in new technology is quite tough and therefore if you can achieve that it can give all shareholders some comfort. He indicated that if there ever was a need for more funds he had taken on board the shareholders wish to be given the opportunity to subscribe; also that in his view that would only arise if there was a business case for substantially revising their business model to reflect the need for a much faster roll out which was not capable of being funded by revenue.
Market Exploitation: They are seeking to exploit as fast as possible; the outsourced deal SEO has done in the States has apparently addressed that for that market and their own UK team can apparently cope over here. Their view was that if any competition emerges they have the capability to see that off by threatening an aggressive pricing strategy which would probably mean a rival would just not be able to raise funds to even get started.
I hope Camillas recollections coincide; because after the meeting the Board made themselves available for private chats with individual shareholders and my notes remembering what was said publicly as opposed to privately is down to memory!
Overall next day impression is that of course the sp will climb a wall of worry; cant think of many instances where this couldnt apply even with blue chips but for different reasons. SEO looks to me to have the potential to be really successful and in quite a rapid timescale. Given how good they have been at announcing news without the share price seeming to pick up in advance through leaks to the market, the next announcement may also give a good surprise one morning. In my view shorting this stock looks to be a recipe for losing ones shirt; interesting to see if events bear that out!
bosley
- 23 Apr 2005 12:53
- 3355 of 27111
once again , sharesure. great post and thanks for the report and your thoughts. i agree with you entirely about seo's rns stragtegy.it does make me wonder if this is the reason for bringing the agm forward.looking back at previous years the agm is usually in early may of june. if they are hopeful of releasing news in may and june it makes sense to bring the agm forward. i think they know that the share price is news driven and if a fund raising is at the back of their minds, it suits them to try to push the price on by a steady flow of news. suits us too!!
Sharesure
- 23 Apr 2005 14:33
- 3356 of 27111
Agree they seem to have a good eye for getting news out right, albeit as the chairman was at pains to say he makes sure that it is always on the cautious side which is reassuring. I really do believe him when he says they are not in need of a further fund raising, but that if in the future they do have to contemplate that, it will almost certainly be because of good news on the roll out front
stockdog
- 23 Apr 2005 18:24
- 3358 of 27111
sharesure - thanks again for the detailed first hand report - invaluable to be able to evaluate what was said face to face with the speaker and other directors present.
My reference to "mountain (or wall, as you have it) of worry" which I think you picked up on was intended as a positive note - all stocks and markets behave this way and SEO's ascent is no different.
Following on from your comments, I guess a new term for shorting stocks such as SEO could be "shirting"!
SD
EWRobson
- 23 Apr 2005 22:57
- 3359 of 27111
Super reporting, sharesure. Gives a good picture of a a management team who know what they are doing and making haste with much care. The last fund-raising was really relatively small and it is amazing that they can proceed to build such a major enterprise with such a relatively small outlay. The key appears to be at their won definition of their business sector as intellectaul copyright and not as electrical engineers or what-have-you. They are happy to leave a lot of the leg work to partners who have the expertise - a super example of out-sourcing. Nor, of course, is Greenseal a flash in the pan but only one of a number of initiatives with great potential. The AGM did seem to suddenly come and go and your reasoning that they wanted it out of the way whilst they could speak in quite general terms and thus free the way fort a succession of significant announcements of progress over the next month or two. Whilst they are keeping quite a mean ship, costs will be escalatin so the conclusu=ion is that sales revenue will be be growing quite quickly from now on so that positve cash flow is not that far away. That will allay that must be around; you see so many companies who have to come back for more funds and rarely in the interest of the existing shareholders; e.g YOO, GMC and, this week, AZM an old favourite of mine.
Thanks again, Eric
aldwickk
- 23 Apr 2005 23:27
- 3360 of 27111
Been thinking about when Simon Cawkwell & co first went short on SEO, and why. I think it might have been when his legal friends told him that SEO would loose the court case with BPRG [ if only he had known about ASDA/WALMART ect:].
pension271
- 24 Apr 2005 01:00
- 3361 of 27111
Has anyone seen 'smallcapshares' mag comments on SEO?
stockdog
- 24 Apr 2005 10:35
- 3362 of 27111
please enlighten us, pension271
can you post it here?
thanks
SD
stockdog
- 24 Apr 2005 11:17
- 3363 of 27111
Anyone know a website with a reliable chart for gold with custom overlays etc? Or a near proximation to the gold price - I would use GBS but it hasn't been running long enough. Or is there a type of FTE index or similar which mirrors it? All ideas welcome.
Thanks
SD
Fred1new
- 24 Apr 2005 11:48
- 3364 of 27111
dawsinho
- 24 Apr 2005 12:07
- 3365 of 27111
Stockdog, off hand you could give the bulliondesk a go..
http://www.thebulliondesk.com
aldwickk
- 24 Apr 2005 13:19
- 3366 of 27111
Fred,
Are you trying to say something, LOL
Fred1new
- 24 Apr 2005 17:21
- 3367 of 27111
Yes but it is not repeatable.
8-)
EWRobson
- 24 Apr 2005 20:31
- 3368 of 27111
Well! How will the market be for SEO tomorrow and this week. May have another week before the ASDA deal is finally confirmed. Wall Street is jittery and there is a lot of talk around about Eliot Waves and another bear market (or we are still in the last one!). SEO charts look good to me and I particularly like the momentum. So, if there is a mark down with the market tomorrow, SEO is likely to recover to at least hold its position on the day and perhaps progress a tad during the week. Doubt whether Evil will try to short again although he might continue to snipe - that's almost a compliment. Very relevant is the comment that there is not a large free market in SEO shares: suggested that just 300million shares are not tied up; compare that to 23million shares traded on Friday and that volume has been beated six times in the last month. That suggests that the MMs (which includes Evolution) will tend to soak up shares rather than drop the price. Perhaps unlikely to be a significant push ahead until we see a major US deal, perhaps Walmart, possibly within the next month.
Not content with soaking up SEO and CFP, stockdog is now soaking up gold! What does he know, that the rest of us don't. Perhaps his frantic digging for bones has revealed a gold locket. Suggest he is better off with diamonds and NML!
Eric
pension271
- 24 Apr 2005 20:54
- 3369 of 27111
Stockdog /3361 post
as it appears in smallcapshares May 2005 recd sat am by post.
Stanelco, the movie, may be worth 170m, but Stanelco, the company is not. The co., has now finalised arrangements for Asda to adopt its tray -lidding technology. and it quickly thereafter appointed two US companies to commence installing it in the USA. These developments sent the shares up to 21p and the market capitalisation to nearly 180m.
Comment :
Momentum may take the shares further, but at some point punters may pause to consider that although the revenue arising from the Asda deal will be "significantly in excess of 5m in the first year" it will only be the tiniest fraction of 180m. And the total company inclome to which this project will be added was just 1.3m in the 12 months to last October.
Stanelco has several other intriguing development projects, but none of them in our opinion come anywhere close to underwriting the current share price.
Stanelco came very close to being our first 10-bagger ( generating 1000pc profit). We first bought it at 2.4p in OCt 2002. but we got a bit wobbly about it just before Christmas when it was drubbed in a patent infringement suit just after the chief executive sold 41m shares at 4p ( collecting 1.6m and thereby forgoing a further 7m he could have pocketed by hanging on for a few months - hindsight is a wonderful thing). These developments led us to dump Stanelco at 4p ( we allowed generously for the spread in this penny share ). However, one angst-ridden month later, the Asda project and a couple of other positive factors having emerged, we did a u-turn and bought them again at 5.5p . Which puts us 260pc to the good in four months. You need one of those every now and again. Neat work. Lets hope this is too. :SELL
Above as it appears in the mag, I have been in and out of this share for a long time now and still hold a substantial figure - about 14% of my total outlay in shares.
Please post your thoughts.Thanks p-271
Sharesure
- 24 Apr 2005 21:06
- 3370 of 27111
Although smallcap shares has a point if only the Asda deal is factored in, that misses the point about how fast the US and Mexico roll out can be accelerated with the training of out-sourced operatives in other companies. Once discussions with major North American customers, ie not just Walmart, start resulting in sign ups the share price starts to look very cheap very fast.
Chiva20
- 24 Apr 2005 21:33
- 3371 of 27111
Agreed Sharesure I think smallcap shares give a very shortsighted opinion on SEO, in their own words I think they're 'getting a bit wobbly' as they did before Christmas on their stake. Every indication points to significant upside, the Walmart deal is almost a foregone conclusion and it will only be a matter of time before other supermarkets etc. step in. And this is all before considering the potential of the rest of SEO's portfolio, frogpack etc. Barring utter disaster, the only obstacle preventing a progressive climb in the following months would be short bursts of profit taking and jitters in the overall economic climate, each of which will pass and pave the way for new SEO fan club membership. I don't even think EK would have a stab after his last pitiful effort, and if he does, bring it on! Opportunity to top up for the umpteenth time
Erics prophecy of an average of 4 points a month sounds about accurate for me, I can happily live with that.
Chiva
EWRobson
- 24 Apr 2005 21:33
- 3372 of 27111
pension
Interesting post. I tend to get suspicious when only a selective part of a story is published: you can see the journalists trying to find some sells to notionally take profits and not doing their homework properly. I have been complainign recently about such action with sells recommended, or implied, fro YOO, ASC and SEO. So what justifies the cuurent price and, indeed, provides a strong basis for short-term growth?
(1) The Evolution forecast of 3.3p per share in 2007 based on a cumulative delivery of 2600 units. This is, in fact, a very small share of the potential market, perhaps some 5%. The forecast was made prior to the annouincements of the liaisons with Premier and Advanced as foirerunners of an attack on the US market, with Walmart obviously a prime target.
(2) The key factor which is easily missed is the royalty aspect of the payment structure so that the revenue and profits rise exponentially once the volume builds up.
(3) The pay-off to the users are dramatic in terms of reduced costs and other benefits, of which increased shelf life is particularly dramatic. Thus, it reasonably appears inevitable that Tesco and the rest will follow so that ASDAs advantage is restricted to the one year benefit. With Walmart, the product is timed brilliantly with a movement to out-sourcing products in palce of in-store butcheries.
smallcapshares appear to have made the same mistake as Simon Cawkwell, making a judgement on a quick appraisal of one aspect of the finances - perhaps noggidynog (alias II) works for them!
Eric