hilary
- 31 Dec 2003 13:00
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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!
davspeed
- 04 Feb 2005 17:03
- 3360 of 11056
Good question Maggot I don't normally use limits to open positions but have been stopped out when spikes have gone against me and they have always been on the price I set unlike when you get a jump in a stock and they give you the next closest price traded to your stop. This is only in my experience though others may have found different
mostrader
- 04 Feb 2005 18:45
- 3361 of 11056
to be honest magg not that sure ive set stop entrys and always got them done as dav said they wud certainly stop you out..ive found them pretty good but on a massive 30 tic gap iam not 100 %.
mg
- 04 Feb 2005 18:53
- 3362 of 11056
Well - what an afternoon you guys must have had. Arrived home to see my sell was triggered - and my buy - they cancelled each other out for a net +140 - must go and play Golf more often ;)
davspeed
- 04 Feb 2005 18:56
- 3363 of 11056
Wow well done mg thats brilliant. Can we all come with you next time
chocolat
- 04 Feb 2005 19:07
- 3364 of 11056
Fantastic, mg!
Leaving a limit buy order on @ 18690
And now I'm going out to play ;)
Seymour Clearly
- 04 Feb 2005 19:25
- 3365 of 11056
Well done mg, just in myelf to see my long trigered @ 780 and my stop triggered @ 760, so -18 net on the day - only 1 a point fortunately. Incredible! Thought it was safe today.
jeffmack
- 06 Feb 2005 20:39
- 3366 of 11056
U.S. DOLLAR MARKET ANALYSIS |
Saturday, February 5, 2005 12:20 GMT
Weekly Commentary
By Investica
http://www.investica.co.uk
|
Dollar confidence - temporary or permanent? |
Confidence in the US economy and markets has
improved, helped in part by more optimistic comments from Fed Chairman
Greenspan and some optimism over action to tackle the US deficits. In
this environment, the markets are more prepared to focus on interest
rate differentials and this will underpin the US dollar in the short
term even though the expectations of a more aggressive Fed monetary
policy have faded. The calm financial markets will also help ease
immediate fears over US financing difficulties. There will still be
longer-term fears over the current account and budget deficits as the
structural position is still precarious. There will also be structural
Euro buying as central banks will continue to diversify away from the
dollar. There is also a risk that the US economy will slow over the
second half of 2005 as spending slows. Overall, the dollar is likely to
be stable to slightly stronger in the short term as yields offer
support, but the currency is likely to face fresh losses on a six-month
view.
The dollar retained a firm tone over the week and, after a tough
struggle at 1.2940, the US currency strengthened through this level on
Friday and reached a high of 1.2860.
As expected, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to
2.5%, the sixth consecutive 0.25% rate increase. The Fed statement was
also in line with expectations. The Fed still considers monetary policy
to be accommodative and expects that further rate increases will be
required. The inflationary trends will also need to be monitored,
especially as recorded productivity growth slowed in the fourth quarter
to an annual rate of 0.8%, the slowest growth rate for six years. At
this stage, the Fed appears confident that it can maintain a measured
tightening stance.
The US employment report was slightly below expectations with a 146,000
January increase compared with expectations of a 190,000 increase while
the increase for the previous two months were also revised down slightly
by a total of close to 30,000, but the unemployment rate dipped to 5.2%
from 5.4%. The steady payroll increase will encourage the Fed to
maintain an unchanged policy stance and a further series of 0.25% rate
increases at the next few Fed meetings. The other US data was close to
expectations, although the ISM manufacturing and services sector indices
both recorded a decline over the month. While jobless claims fell to
316,000 in the week and consumer confidence was little changed. US
financial markets are likely to look upon the economic prospects as
generally favourable in the short term and this should draw funds into
the US currency. The yield differentials will also offer near-term
support to the US currency. Dollar confidence will also be boosted by US
financial-market stability.
There will still be underlying concerns over the budget and current
account deficits. Fed Chairman Greenspan chose to make a generally more
optimistic assessment of the deficits issue in a speech on Friday,
stating that the action to curb the budget deficits, coupled with market
action, would help stabilise and start to lower the trade deficit. This
provided a boost to financial markets, but investors will also want
evidence of action to curb spending and the US budget will be closely
watched. The underlying current account position is also still
precarious and any faltering of confidence would expose the dollar to
renewed and potentially heavy downward pressure.
The Euro-zone data was slightly stronger than expected with the PMI
indices for the manufacturing and services sectors both recording a
slight advance for January. German industrial orders also rose strongly,
but there was a decline in retail sales and the unemployment rate pushed
above 5mn due to revised calculation methods.
The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 2.0% and the banks comments
were mixed. Although the ECB is confidence that inflation will decline
to below 2.0%, the ECB is also concerned over the impact of high
property prices within the Euro-zone. The most likely outcome is that
the bank will keep policy on hold over the next few months. The Euro
should still gain underlying support from central bank reserve shifts
away from the US currency.
|
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jeffmack
- 06 Feb 2005 20:41
- 3367 of 11056
Economic
calendar for week 6 from 6 Feb. 05 to 12 Feb. 05 |
7 Feb. 05 |
00:30 |
Reserve Bank Monetary Policy
Statement (Australia) |
|
|
|
7 Feb. 05 |
06:45 |
Unemployment Rate - SA
(Switzerland) |
Jan |
|
3.8% |
7 Feb. 05 |
08:30 |
Budget Deficit (Sweden) |
Jan |
|
-25.9B |
7 Feb. 05 |
09:00 |
Industrial Production - MoM
(Norway) |
Dec |
|
-1.3% |
7 Feb. 05 |
13:00 |
Building Permits - MoM (Canada) |
Dec |
-2.3% |
9.3% |
7 Feb. 05 |
20:00 |
Consumer Credit (US) |
Dec |
$6.5B |
-$8.7B |
8 Feb. 05 |
00:01 |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor (UK) |
|
|
|
8 Feb. 05 |
00:30 |
National Australia Bank Business
Survey (Australia) |
Jan |
|
|
8 Feb. 05 |
05:00 |
Overall Household Spending - MoM
(Japan) |
Dec |
|
0.8% |
8 Feb. 05 |
05:00 |
Eco Watchers Survey: Current /
Outlook (Japan) |
Jan |
|
44.2 / 44.0 |
8 Feb. 05 |
08:00 |
Trade Balance (Hungary) |
Dec |
|
-250.0M |
8 Feb. 05 |
08:00 |
Unemployment Rate (Czech
Republic) |
Jan |
9.9% |
9.5% |
8 Feb. 05 |
08:00 |
CPI - MoM (Czech Republic) |
Jan |
1.0% |
0.1% |
8 Feb. 05 |
08:00 |
|
|
|
|
8 Feb. 05 |
11:00 |
Industrial Production - MoM
(Germany) |
Dec |
|
-1.5% |
8 Feb. 05 |
13:15 |
Housing Starts (Canada) |
Jan |
230K |
234.4K |
8 Feb. 05 |
23:30 |
ABC Weekly Consumer Confidence
(US) |
Feb 6 |
|
-11 |
8 Feb. 05 |
23:30 |
Westpac February Consumer
Confidence (Australia) |
|
|
|
9 Feb. 05 |
06:00 |
Machine Tool Orders - YoY (Japan) |
Jan |
|
50.9% |
9 Feb. 05 |
09:30 |
Industrial / Manufacturing
Production - MoM (UK) |
Dec |
|
0.2% / -0.1% |
9 Feb. 05 |
09:30 |
Visible Trade Balance (UK) |
Dec |
|
-4589.0M |
9 Feb. 05 |
13:30 |
NIESR GDP Estimate (UK) |
Jan |
|
0.4% |
9 Feb. 05 |
15:00 |
Wholesale Inventories (US) |
Dec |
0.9% |
1.1% |
9 Feb. 05 |
15:30 |
DOE/ API Weekly Crude Oil
Inventories (US) |
Feb 4 |
|
|
9 Feb. 05 |
23:50 |
Domestic CGPI - MoM (Japan) |
Jan |
|
0.0% |
10 Feb. 05 |
00:00 |
Consumer Inflation Expectations
(Australia) |
|
|
|
10 Feb. 05 |
00:30 |
Unemployment Rate (Australia) |
Jan |
|
5.1% |
10 Feb. 05 |
00:30 |
Employment Change (Australia) |
Jan |
|
29 |
10 Feb. 05 |
00:30 |
Participation Rate (Australia) |
Jan |
|
63.8% |
10 Feb. 05 |
05:00 |
Machine Orders - MoM (Japan) |
Dec |
|
19.9% |
10 Feb. 05 |
06:45 |
SECO Consumer Climate
(Switzerland) |
Jan |
|
-13 |
10 Feb. 05 |
07:00 |
Trade Balance (Germany) |
Dec |
|
11.9B |
10 Feb. 05 |
07:45 |
Industrial Production - MoM
(France) |
Dec |
|
|
10 Feb. 05 |
09:00 |
ECB to release Monthly Report (EU) |
Feb |
|
|
10 Feb. 05 |
09:00 |
CPI - MoM (Norway) |
Jan |
|
-0.2% |
10 Feb. 05 |
09:00 |
PPI including Oil - MoM (Norway) |
Jan |
|
-3.6% |
10 Feb. 05 |
09:30 |
Total New Construction Orders
(UK) |
Dec |
|
2474.0 |
10 Feb. 05 |
12:00 |
BOE Announces Rates (UK) |
|
4.75% |
4.75% |
10 Feb. 05 |
12:00 |
Industrial Production / Orders -
MoM (Sweden) |
Dec |
|
-2.2% / -1.9% |
10 Feb. 05 |
13:30 |
SARB Announces Rates (South
Africa) |
|
7.5% |
7.5% |
10 Feb. 05 |
13:30 |
New Housing Price Index - MoM
(Canada) |
Dec |
0.3% |
0.5% |
10 Feb. 05 |
13:30 |
International Merchandise Trade
(Canada) |
Dec |
C$6.3 |
C$7.3 |
10 Feb. 05 |
13:30 |
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
(US) |
Feb 5 |
|
|
10 Feb. 05 |
15:30 |
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage
Change (US) |
Feb 4 |
|
|
10 Feb. 05 |
19:00 |
Fed's Stern Speaks on Monetary
Policy in Montana (US) |
|
|
|
10 Feb. 05 |
19:00 |
Monthly Budget Statement (US) |
Jan |
$5.1B |
-$1.4 |
10 Feb. 05 |
21:45 |
Unemployment Rate (New Zealand) |
Q4 |
|
3.80% |
11 Feb. 05 |
00:30 |
Home Loans (Australia) |
Dec |
|
2.7% |
11 Feb. 05 |
07:50 |
Gross Domestic Product - QoQ
(France) |
Q4 |
|
|
11 Feb. 05 |
19:50 |
Fed's Yellen and Fed's Bernanke to
Speak at Economic Summit in Stanford (US) |
|
|
|
|
mg
- 07 Feb 2005 00:06
- 3368 of 11056
Well, could be a bit risky overnight but I've place orders to open buys - to be triggered @ 690, 680 and 670 ...... was going to stay up and play whilst watching the Superbowl but think I'll watch it in bed - SB - not cable ;)
Not around most of the early part of next week so I may well pull them if I wake up to find them way off the money.
mostrader
- 07 Feb 2005 07:03
- 3369 of 11056
mng all
Seymour Clearly
- 07 Feb 2005 08:16
- 3370 of 11056
Morning all, morning Mos, anyone else here?
HelenW
- 07 Feb 2005 08:20
- 3371 of 11056
Morning all
Divetime
- 07 Feb 2005 08:27
- 3372 of 11056
Morning all no positions yet.
mostrader
- 07 Feb 2005 08:31
- 3373 of 11056
mng all sorry bit tied up in EMI, got no pos yet,greenspan speaking on fri put the cat amgnst the pid`s...iam flat @ mom feel any usd strenght will fizzle out over the nxt couple of days..looks like fx mrkt trying to get to grips with these moves which happened after ldn closed, feel we cud see a bit more usd strenght then as above will fizzle out...
mg
- 07 Feb 2005 08:36
- 3374 of 11056
Nothong triggered - off out so will leave them all there - waiting ;)
mostrader
- 07 Feb 2005 08:38
- 3375 of 11056
yep calm before the storm mg.....
feel a lot of traders caught between buy usd on the back of this move and the longer term view that usd still keeps on going down.. think greenspans comments caught people a bit flatfooted..
chocolat
- 07 Feb 2005 08:44
- 3376 of 11056
Mine's still on too, mg - thing, that is.
mostrader
- 07 Feb 2005 09:51
- 3377 of 11056
long stg @ 90
mg
- 07 Feb 2005 14:04
- 3378 of 11056
Just had a sneak look in to see where we are - 80 and 90 have fired - hoping the 70 doesn't as well.
choccy
Good to hear you've still got your thong on - I should hope so to ;)
commando mg
mostrader
- 07 Feb 2005 14:06
- 3379 of 11056
mg afternoon ..saw ur things get triggered sld my stg@ 25
been top last few hours but 80/90 was tested about 4 times b4 we eventually broke higher