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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

davspeed - 04 Feb 2005 17:03 - 3360 of 11056

Good question Maggot I don't normally use limits to open positions but have been stopped out when spikes have gone against me and they have always been on the price I set unlike when you get a jump in a stock and they give you the next closest price traded to your stop. This is only in my experience though others may have found different

mostrader - 04 Feb 2005 18:45 - 3361 of 11056

to be honest magg not that sure ive set stop entrys and always got them done as dav said they wud certainly stop you out..ive found them pretty good but on a massive 30 tic gap iam not 100 %.

mg - 04 Feb 2005 18:53 - 3362 of 11056

Well - what an afternoon you guys must have had. Arrived home to see my sell was triggered - and my buy - they cancelled each other out for a net +140 - must go and play Golf more often ;)

davspeed - 04 Feb 2005 18:56 - 3363 of 11056

Wow well done mg thats brilliant. Can we all come with you next time

chocolat - 04 Feb 2005 19:07 - 3364 of 11056

Fantastic, mg!
Leaving a limit buy order on @ 18690
And now I'm going out to play ;)

Seymour Clearly - 04 Feb 2005 19:25 - 3365 of 11056

Well done mg, just in myelf to see my long trigered @ 780 and my stop triggered @ 760, so -18 net on the day - only 1 a point fortunately. Incredible! Thought it was safe today.

jeffmack - 06 Feb 2005 20:39 - 3366 of 11056

U.S. DOLLAR MARKET ANALYSIS
Saturday, February 5, 2005 12:20 GMT Weekly Commentary By Investica http://www.investica.co.uk  
Dollar confidence - temporary or permanent?
Confidence in the US economy and markets has improved, helped in part by more optimistic comments from Fed Chairman Greenspan and some optimism over action to tackle the US deficits. In this environment, the markets are more prepared to focus on interest rate differentials and this will underpin the US dollar in the short term even though the expectations of a more aggressive Fed monetary policy have faded. The calm financial markets will also help ease immediate fears over US financing difficulties. There will still be longer-term fears over the current account and budget deficits as the structural position is still precarious. There will also be structural Euro buying as central banks will continue to diversify away from the dollar. There is also a risk that the US economy will slow over the second half of 2005 as spending slows. Overall, the dollar is likely to be stable to slightly stronger in the short term as yields offer support, but the currency is likely to face fresh losses on a six-month view. The dollar retained a firm tone over the week and, after a tough struggle at 1.2940, the US currency strengthened through this level on Friday and reached a high of 1.2860. As expected, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to 2.5%, the sixth consecutive 0.25% rate increase. The Fed statement was also in line with expectations. The Fed still considers monetary policy to be accommodative and expects that further rate increases will be required. The inflationary trends will also need to be monitored, especially as recorded productivity growth slowed in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 0.8%, the slowest growth rate for six years. At this stage, the Fed appears confident that it can maintain a measured tightening stance. The US employment report was slightly below expectations with a 146,000 January increase compared with expectations of a 190,000 increase while the increase for the previous two months were also revised down slightly by a total of close to 30,000, but the unemployment rate dipped to 5.2% from 5.4%. The steady payroll increase will encourage the Fed to maintain an unchanged policy stance and a further series of 0.25% rate increases at the next few Fed meetings. The other US data was close to expectations, although the ISM manufacturing and services sector indices both recorded a decline over the month. While jobless claims fell to 316,000 in the week and consumer confidence was little changed. US financial markets are likely to look upon the economic prospects as generally favourable in the short term and this should draw funds into the US currency. The yield differentials will also offer near-term support to the US currency. Dollar confidence will also be boosted by US financial-market stability. There will still be underlying concerns over the budget and current account deficits. Fed Chairman Greenspan chose to make a generally more optimistic assessment of the deficits issue in a speech on Friday, stating that the action to curb the budget deficits, coupled with market action, would help stabilise and start to lower the trade deficit. This provided a boost to financial markets, but investors will also want evidence of action to curb spending and the US budget will be closely watched. The underlying current account position is also still precarious and any faltering of confidence would expose the dollar to renewed and potentially heavy downward pressure. The Euro-zone data was slightly stronger than expected with the PMI indices for the manufacturing and services sectors both recording a slight advance for January. German industrial orders also rose strongly, but there was a decline in retail sales and the unemployment rate pushed above 5mn due to revised calculation methods. The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 2.0% and the banks comments were mixed. Although the ECB is confidence that inflation will decline to below 2.0%, the ECB is also concerned over the impact of high property prices within the Euro-zone. The most likely outcome is that the bank will keep policy on hold over the next few months. The Euro should still gain underlying support from central bank reserve shifts away from the US currency.  

jeffmack - 06 Feb 2005 20:41 - 3367 of 11056

Economic calendar for week 6 from 6 Feb. 05 to 12 Feb. 05
7 Feb. 05 00:30  Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement (Australia)       
7 Feb. 05 06:45  Unemployment Rate - SA (Switzerland)  Jan    3.8% 
7 Feb. 05 08:30  Budget Deficit (Sweden)  Jan    -25.9B 
7 Feb. 05 09:00  Industrial Production - MoM (Norway)  Dec    -1.3% 
7 Feb. 05 13:00  Building Permits - MoM (Canada)  Dec  -2.3%  9.3% 
7 Feb. 05 20:00  Consumer Credit (US)  Dec  $6.5B  -$8.7B 
8 Feb. 05 00:01  BRC Retail Sales Monitor (UK)       
8 Feb. 05 00:30  National Australia Bank Business Survey (Australia)  Jan     
8 Feb. 05 05:00  Overall Household Spending - MoM (Japan)  Dec    0.8% 
8 Feb. 05 05:00  Eco Watchers Survey: Current / Outlook (Japan)  Jan    44.2 / 44.0 
8 Feb. 05 08:00  Trade Balance (Hungary)  Dec    -250.0M 
8 Feb. 05 08:00  Unemployment Rate (Czech Republic)  Jan  9.9%  9.5% 
8 Feb. 05 08:00  CPI - MoM (Czech Republic)  Jan  1.0%  0.1% 
8 Feb. 05 08:00         
8 Feb. 05 11:00  Industrial Production - MoM (Germany)  Dec    -1.5% 
8 Feb. 05 13:15  Housing Starts (Canada)  Jan  230K  234.4K 
8 Feb. 05 23:30  ABC Weekly Consumer Confidence (US)  Feb 6    -11 
8 Feb. 05 23:30  Westpac February Consumer Confidence (Australia)       
9 Feb. 05 06:00  Machine Tool Orders - YoY (Japan)  Jan    50.9% 
9 Feb. 05 09:30  Industrial / Manufacturing Production - MoM (UK)  Dec    0.2% / -0.1% 
9 Feb. 05 09:30  Visible Trade Balance (UK)  Dec    -4589.0M 
9 Feb. 05 13:30  NIESR GDP Estimate (UK)  Jan    0.4% 
9 Feb. 05 15:00  Wholesale Inventories (US)  Dec  0.9%  1.1% 
9 Feb. 05 15:30  DOE/ API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (US)  Feb 4     
9 Feb. 05 23:50  Domestic CGPI - MoM (Japan)  Jan    0.0% 
10 Feb. 05 00:00  Consumer Inflation Expectations (Australia)       
10 Feb. 05 00:30  Unemployment Rate (Australia)  Jan    5.1% 
10 Feb. 05 00:30  Employment Change (Australia)  Jan    29 
10 Feb. 05 00:30  Participation Rate (Australia)  Jan    63.8% 
10 Feb. 05 05:00  Machine Orders - MoM (Japan)  Dec    19.9% 
10 Feb. 05 06:45  SECO Consumer Climate (Switzerland)  Jan    -13 
10 Feb. 05 07:00  Trade Balance (Germany)  Dec    11.9B 
10 Feb. 05 07:45  Industrial Production - MoM (France)  Dec     
10 Feb. 05 09:00  ECB to release Monthly Report (EU)  Feb     
10 Feb. 05 09:00  CPI - MoM (Norway)  Jan    -0.2% 
10 Feb. 05 09:00  PPI including Oil - MoM (Norway)  Jan    -3.6% 
10 Feb. 05 09:30  Total New Construction Orders (UK)  Dec    2474.0 
10 Feb. 05 12:00  BOE Announces Rates (UK)    4.75%  4.75% 
10 Feb. 05 12:00  Industrial Production / Orders - MoM (Sweden)  Dec    -2.2% / -1.9% 
10 Feb. 05 13:30  SARB Announces Rates (South Africa)    7.5%  7.5% 
10 Feb. 05 13:30  New Housing Price Index - MoM (Canada)  Dec  0.3%  0.5% 
10 Feb. 05 13:30  International Merchandise Trade (Canada)  Dec  C$6.3  C$7.3 
10 Feb. 05 13:30  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (US)  Feb 5     
10 Feb. 05 15:30  EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change (US)  Feb 4     
10 Feb. 05 19:00  Fed's Stern Speaks on Monetary Policy in Montana (US)       
10 Feb. 05 19:00  Monthly Budget Statement (US)  Jan  $5.1B  -$1.4 
10 Feb. 05 21:45  Unemployment Rate (New Zealand)  Q4    3.80% 
11 Feb. 05 00:30  Home Loans (Australia)  Dec    2.7% 
11 Feb. 05 07:50  Gross Domestic Product - QoQ (France)  Q4     
11 Feb. 05 19:50  Fed's Yellen and Fed's Bernanke to Speak at Economic Summit in Stanford (US)       

mg - 07 Feb 2005 00:06 - 3368 of 11056

Well, could be a bit risky overnight but I've place orders to open buys - to be triggered @ 690, 680 and 670 ...... was going to stay up and play whilst watching the Superbowl but think I'll watch it in bed - SB - not cable ;)

Not around most of the early part of next week so I may well pull them if I wake up to find them way off the money.

mostrader - 07 Feb 2005 07:03 - 3369 of 11056

mng all

Seymour Clearly - 07 Feb 2005 08:16 - 3370 of 11056

Morning all, morning Mos, anyone else here?

HelenW - 07 Feb 2005 08:20 - 3371 of 11056

Morning all

Divetime - 07 Feb 2005 08:27 - 3372 of 11056

Morning all no positions yet.

mostrader - 07 Feb 2005 08:31 - 3373 of 11056

mng all sorry bit tied up in EMI, got no pos yet,greenspan speaking on fri put the cat amgnst the pid`s...iam flat @ mom feel any usd strenght will fizzle out over the nxt couple of days..looks like fx mrkt trying to get to grips with these moves which happened after ldn closed, feel we cud see a bit more usd strenght then as above will fizzle out...

mg - 07 Feb 2005 08:36 - 3374 of 11056

Nothong triggered - off out so will leave them all there - waiting ;)

mostrader - 07 Feb 2005 08:38 - 3375 of 11056

yep calm before the storm mg.....
feel a lot of traders caught between buy usd on the back of this move and the longer term view that usd still keeps on going down.. think greenspans comments caught people a bit flatfooted..

chocolat - 07 Feb 2005 08:44 - 3376 of 11056

Mine's still on too, mg - thing, that is.

mostrader - 07 Feb 2005 09:51 - 3377 of 11056

long stg @ 90

mg - 07 Feb 2005 14:04 - 3378 of 11056

Just had a sneak look in to see where we are - 80 and 90 have fired - hoping the 70 doesn't as well.

choccy
Good to hear you've still got your thong on - I should hope so to ;)

commando mg

mostrader - 07 Feb 2005 14:06 - 3379 of 11056

mg afternoon ..saw ur things get triggered sld my stg@ 25

been top last few hours but 80/90 was tested about 4 times b4 we eventually broke higher
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