Another newcomer to the main market...anybody any idea what the production figures are ?

can't remember exactly where this gas find is, but apparently it is seriously HUGE, though yes indeed they (and the punters) were hoping for oil .... checking back, it seems that most of the brokers subsequently downgraded the stock, but i wonder if they're entirely right in this instance

there is a rumour says, the guardian newspaper off a 450p bid from whoever.

this might have caused the spike.

The rumour has been squashed today.

::Comment

Buy Heritage at 295p
Says Lucien Miers, the Bard of the Boleyn

The markets preference for oil over gas was demonstrated forcefully the other day at Heritage Oil (HOIL 295p) The stock was trading around 460p awaiting drilling results at its Miran prospect in Kurdistan Iraq. On 26th Jan the company announced that it had made a major gas discovery, equivalent to 744mn barrels of Oil (6.8 to 9.1 trillion cubic feet) After a knee jerk rise on this news the market spanked the stock and it has fallen steadily since then to a recent low of 280p.

The reason for the fall is that a 170km gas pipeline would need to be built to transport the gas which could cost around $1bn. Also production is not expected until 2015. But chiefly it is because the market wanted oil and it got gas.

I think the fall is overdone as I am told that on the basis of what majors have paid recently for similar assets a gas find of this size could be worth $3bn. Even after the cost of the pipline and allowing for the five year wait till production you could be talking a value for the gas alone at around 320p per share.

Given that HOIL has 135p in cash following the sale of its Ugandan assets to Tullow Oil, (in a deal which demonstrated its expertise at finding value in exotic places) and that it also has other projects in Africa, Pakistan and Malta as well as a small producing asset in Russia (an average rate of 580 barrels a day: small but must it pay a few bills) it can be argued that the falls have been overdone even taking into account the discount currently being accorded to anything with a middle eastern bias.

I am sure that Heritage would rather be involved in oil rather than gas but I feel confident it will extract maximum value for this significant discovery, and feel that at 295p the fall has been overdone. I have bought around these levels with a target of 400p plus in the next 12 months.

Posted by ShareCrazy on Feb 18, 05:42 PM in Comment

Nice to see Stock On Loan data (shorters) falling away in recent days.



Data Explorers

It's a good company....but is this the bottom ?.....not sure...might just be perking up before a further drop....

TA looks pretty impressive and bullish for HOIL at the moment....

Moving up nicely this morning.

Up over 7% and going like the clappers.... Nice.

on the other hand, this is certainly worth another look as i thought it very unfairly hammered on their last result, as posted at the time

very nice.

Bought a few.....well spotted Goldfinger.......

Yep going nicely. way undervalued.

Heritage are in final list of 5 approved bidders for part of Shell Nigeria acreage.


http://www.independentngonline.com/DailyIndependent/Article.aspx?id=30050

Shell has narrowed the preferred bidders for its prized parcel to five from 18 companies. The five include Nigerias Oando, backed by Anglo-French company, Perenco and Chinese-owned Addax Petroleum, and Shoreline Energy International, backed by U.K.-based Heritage Oil, according to the person familiar with the matter

thanks sticky .... bought back in this morning on basis of your nudge - sp now on a (bacon!) roll

IMO, there is a big buy order that needs to be filled and hence the SP move up north today. HOIL was over sold..

Rumours (unsubstantiated) of a bid approach (maybe by OMV).

Lifted from across road.......

Brokers behind HOIL

Heritage Oil PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
22-02-11 BUY -27.23 -0.11 -12.30 -0.05
Evolution Securities Ltd
18-02-11 BUY 631.36 6.87 -22.48 7.82
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
31-01-11 HOLD -6.31 -5.05
Fox Davies Capital
23-12-10 BUY
Nomura Research Institute
28-08-09 NEUT
Westhouse Securities
16-12-08 BUY

2010 2011
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 248.37 -0.44 -16.56 0.29
1 Month Change 5.35 -0.39 -0.08 -0.35
3 Month Change -44.36 -3.72 0.77 -3.49


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS % % %
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA -11.08m -16.37m 4.20m
EBIT -12.14m m m
Dividend Yield % % %
Dividend Cover x x x
PER -52.53x -622.45x 949.83x
PEG f f f
Net Asset Value PS 57.66p p p

Moving up nicely again, lets hope it can keep going today.

Moving up again nicely. Inspired BUY this from My system.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57231066-4a1f-11e0-b802-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1GB1UObyV

Continued hopes that Heritage Oil may be a takeover target lifted its shares by 8.1 per cent to 305p.

Investors were sceptical of the bid talk but said Heritage may be keen to sell its gas field in Kurdistan and also noted that the resolution of a tax dispute in Uganda may be worth about 50p per share.

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