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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

capetown - 30 Sep 2005 12:26 - 338 of 1009

Just wondering if that is where its heading and i am keen to get back in<
I would HOLD if i was still in the stock though,
Yesterday look how SEO went down for NO reason and nows its back up!!

capetown - 30 Sep 2005 12:28 - 339 of 1009

Looks like the buyers are back @23

Fred1new - 30 Sep 2005 12:28 - 340 of 1009

Looking at the buys and sells I think there must a lot of "shorters" pressure unless some Late or protected trades show up later to-day and early next week. My own "feelings" are the SP is to low, the company is in a better state of development than lsat year. I don't like waiting, but will.

If anybody has room on their park bench in Hyde Park please contact me at MM.

Fred1new - 30 Sep 2005 12:31 - 341 of 1009

I have the same sentiments about SEO of which the potential I think is far greater as a cash earner.

Fred1new - 30 Sep 2005 12:31 - 342 of 1009

I have the same sentiments about SEO of which the potential I think is far greater as a cash earner.

capetown - 30 Sep 2005 15:18 - 343 of 1009

SHE on the slide again!!
I got a feeling this one will fall much further before bouncing back,but bounce back it WILL

Douggie - 30 Sep 2005 18:55 - 344 of 1009

:-[[

Fred1new - 30 Sep 2005 19:18 - 345 of 1009

Cheer up Douggie, You have got the weekend and next week should show an improvement. About 3Million shares bought late afternoon in large sizes. b/s 6/5.

zscrooge - 30 Sep 2005 22:41 - 346 of 1009

For goodness sake! Cybersource?! Just nervous investors worried about retail sales up to xmas. But that's in the high street not online. Instis thought it was a good buy at 32, brokers say buy up to 35. Maybe some longtermers locking in profit.

36p by March.

optomistic - 01 Oct 2005 11:24 - 347 of 1009

Retail Decisions PLC interim pretax profit for the six months to June 30 is up 17 pct to 3.5 mln stg compared with 3 mln stg last year
on group revenue of 14.7 mln stg and in line with market expectations.

The fuel card operator and card fraud prevention company operating
profit is 3.7 mln stg up from last year's 3.2 mln while group adjusted operating
margin increased to 25 pct from 22 pct.

Fuel Cards division
profits up 18 pct on a 9 pct increase in revenues.

Not results that warrant a 33% share price reduction in days!
On these figures IMO the share price is likely to stage a quick recovery. The big Q is who was doing the selling to push the price down and why.

capetown - 01 Oct 2005 11:32 - 348 of 1009

OPTIMISTIC,
How are you,
Its a great buying opportunity,But do you think the price will fall further?Will it go to 17 pence as it has gone down lower than other lows and could be heading to test its previous breakout>?,what do you think?,i am keen to add.
Keep well

optomistic - 01 Oct 2005 11:52 - 349 of 1009

capetown, if you use ADVFN I recommend you to read the RTD thread there, an excellent article has just been posted by scburbs. Well worth the effort to have a look.
My own view is positive, took the opportunity to add Friday, price may not be at the bottom but it should be near. Looking at the figures looks a good buy IMO.

capetown - 01 Oct 2005 13:01 - 350 of 1009

I agree with you optimistic,
But we all know how the market get wreck the price of a share even if breifly for no reason,
It looks like its on a downward trend and i will take a chance and add if it falls further,
More than happy to hold the stock i bought @ 29p and 27.50,
CHEERS and thanks for the info

overgrowth - 04 Oct 2005 12:18 - 351 of 1009

opto - I believe there's a lot of technical selling been going on (there are quite a few longer term swing traders into RTD - particularly Elliot Wave enthusiasts).

If history is about to repeat itself, then the longer term chart indicates that we should see some upside again very soon:

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

optomistic - 04 Oct 2005 12:34 - 352 of 1009

overgrowth, thanks for the info on EW enthusiasts following RTD. I'm not very clued up on Elliot Wave theories but I can see that if the next wave is an upwave then the target would be around 48p....seems a long way off! Perhaps some EW specialist would confirm (or dispute) my reading off this?

daves dazzlers - 04 Oct 2005 14:46 - 353 of 1009

Back in just under 22.50 for my sins.

optomistic - 04 Oct 2005 14:58 - 354 of 1009

Afternoon Dave, it's you that's pushing the price up....keep buying :-)

daves dazzlers - 04 Oct 2005 15:19 - 355 of 1009

I wish.

Fred1new - 04 Oct 2005 17:16 - 356 of 1009

Bought a few more this am out of the petty cash. I think it looks like rising again.

55011 - 04 Oct 2005 22:54 - 357 of 1009

Hi there Fred. Watching and waiting on this. Surprised at the sharp fall for no stated cause. A bit perturbed at the solid mass of blue yesterday and today, in the afternoon, that didn't generate a price move. Something iffy could be going on behind the scenes.

Having a pleasant, gentle ride with ADVFN at the moment, rather subdued, but has proved worthwhile (so far). Also a Split Cap Trust wound up last week, releasing a useful bit of cash from a certificated holding.

Pondering on the effect this evening's fall off in the Dow might have in the morning.

Shall watch and wait a bit longer.

Good luck in your endeavour.
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