ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

You know I can't help thinking that this SP has a few similiaralities to Bioprogress earlier this year. I know, before you all jump om me, different sector, different products. But all the hype for BPGR was more or less the same. BB favourite, SP overheating, (as it transpired), comapny was going to make huge sales, huge profits and what happened the SP tanked. Now I don't for one moment think that ASOS will not achieve good sales / profits etc, but similiar statements could were made about BPGR, and that didn't stop the SP tanking short term. All of the posters make sound reasoned comments why the SP will continue to climb, but sometimes the stock market does not appear to be a sound reasoned organisation. I am not trying to deramp, obviously those long term holders have locked in good profits, but those buying in now, may just have to wait a bit longer for similiar rewards, or possibly not!

Good luck to all, I am going to wait and see, and if I miss the boat...well there will always be another one.

Regards

PTH

Eric - Thanks for setting out your reasoning. I personally don't think the price has yet reflected the upside from the AGM news, and we need to wait a week or so first. I am sifting through your BUY list now, but meanwhile take a look at Burren Energy (BUR), of which I am a great fan. They have an Interim update on Monday next and have been in a consolidating pattern over the last month or so. I owe a great debt to MW-M on this one, as I initially missed it until it popped up on his Watshot site (regretfully he has now moved on to providing focussed small company research for Institutional clients). Anyway that aside I have enjoyed a real run up on this stock, I am not sure everyone has yet taken on board how the oil majors have become slaves to the analysts in the need to keep EPS up, so they have passed on lots of oil search and extraction projects that might be anything than megga! This has allowed lots of small operators to become profitable and quickly...I am sure you will look closely at Burren before taking any view yourself, but here's a few 'nuggets'...there is a suggestion that one of the oil fields has significant reserves, well beyond those declared at this stage by the company (independent audit promised at end year)...perhaps a maiden dividend is declared this year...hints of a new oil deal in Russia...there are own figures for the year did not price oil at $40 or so, and their own tanker fleet is fully occupied shipping the company's own oil (last year these tankers could be hired for $5K perday, now it's more like $80K!). Although the company is fairly new to the market it's already in the 350 Index and has no premium yet for any market consolidation activity, which is bound to come over the next 18 month or so. Finally, it has really good analyst coverage now and you can get hold of the reports! Another favourite for me has been Fibernet (FIB)...follow the technical charts on this small and excellent telecommunications company. I trade this on the technicals particularly the MACD and RSI chart. A real classic trade. Finally take a look at Melrose Resources, through a series of stake swops it now has a major gas field in the Black Sea, (they are actively exploring other opportunities in that area with all the contacts to make it happen) plus a contract to supply Bulgaria and is a city favourite. Good hunting and I wish you well. John

A bit concerned that potential investors are put off by the negative comment and then live to regret it. First, ASOS have established themselves in a niche; there will be competition but give me the market leader any time. Second, the management steps reported above by Beheid are all impressive; they have already proved themselves and are not resting on their laurels. Most important the financials speak for themselves. Cap. is still just 46m. Projected PE for this year and next year (johngtudor's figures) are 31 and 22; the latter is clearly very cautious and th figure could be more like 15. But there are no real constraints on growth: the warehouse issue is a non-issue; they still only have less than 4% of the internet fashion market, itself growing by 47% (figure from memory) - I have absolutely no doubt that they will continue to increase market share. There is bound to be positive news flow towards Christmas. The cap. is reaching size when the funds will want a piece of the action. You must go with the PS 1 forecast, the only question being timing - I agree this year. I can't see any substance in the negative comments.

Eric - Seymour Pierce numbers are as follows (I now have a little more detail):

2005: Pre-tax: 1.45 EPS(p) 1.9 PER(34.2)
2006: 2.15 EPS 2.6 25

So a small change on the 2005/6 estimates, but they are I think on the conservative side. The only slight negative at this time is that these figures only come from one broker..we really need more institutional coverage.

I understand from other BB members that Evil just thinks ASOS sells things in a wharehouse, not much to it. In it's simplest form that is true, but how come lots of retail outlets fall on hard times and they have much higher overheads in terms of staff and space costs to contend with when they do! Well it comes down to having in place what people want, when they want it...and by the look of these figures ASOS certainly does. I plan to significantly increase my holding of ASOS stock over the next few trading days...I do hope the share price remains temporarily depressed...thanks to Evil and his friends!! John

johngtudor

Re comments on Evil, I suspect ASOS will come to be seen as a model for a successful internet trading company. It is informative that the tremendous run of Topps Tiles (TPT) is partially credited to their adherence to a leasehold model which enables them to expand outlets at relatively low cost. ASOS don't even have that worry. They remain cashflow positive even in a period of near 100% growth. Although there may be price growth next week with press comment, we may need news of Xmas trading before the next significant price jump.

Many thanks for the investment ideas which I will explore this weekend. I had been planning to take some ASC profits and increase stake in Yoomedia. I ended up switching to earthport (EPO). A price of 1.08p, against 3p earlier in the year, was too good to miss. I have given my reasons for predicting a return to 3p, early in 2005 and potentially 10p later that year, on the Earthport bb (532). There has been a tremendous amount of flak, much directed at TF for recommending the share at, I think, 2.68p. Much is just noise, but it is not for the faint-hearted. Interested in your views, perhaps there rather than here.

Eric

Sorry folks but they dropped to .59 and I have been caught by a share going down and gotten too attached so I have sold.
I didn't have a lot only 2553 which I bought at .42 but I wasn't about to see that creep take my profit.
But I will watch them.

cavman2
Don't just watch them, buy them back quickly (not less than 10% of your portfolio) and then watch them grow!
Eric

Eric
Am watching with a view to get back in, have'nt invested my proceeds.
Would like to put more but the coming good of ARX,PDX and HCEG taking longer than i thought.

self fulfilling prophecy. someone with a reputation says he is short , evryone starts to panic and sell , price drops and .......hey presto , the prophecy was fulfilled.

speaking as a physcologist its an ego not a reputation... someone that needs to feel looked upto and revered but i really doubt that enough people listen to him to actually affect the share price!

Down nearly 10% though over the last two trading days, although early for today yet!!

Re recent comments on price.

Instructive to look at the tp chart over the last 6 months. Gradual rise with three spurts: on finals in June; on trading report in July and on AGM in September. All had excellent news which stimulated the market. Buying continued during the gap between the first two events as more buyers heard of the stock and invested (including institutions). Following the jump in July, profit-taking set in and it became a good buying opportunity. I suspect the same is happening now and the price could ease somewhat until the next news. Timing of that probably depends primarily on whether the Board want to keep the price moving; given that it is unlikely, because of positive cash-flow, that they wish to raise funds, the short-term price movements may be academic to them.

But have a look at the chart: there is very nearly a straight line increase from 20p in April to 60p in September; projecting that line forward would give 1 by February, much in line with the SP forecast (see Snip's EMA50 chart in bb269). I admit to taking some profits, but then I have been very much overweight (2/3rds by value). I may continue to do that in the hope of taking profits from other situations and then re-investing. Great if that comes off! I know, though, if I had just a small stake, I would be increasing it as I saw buying opportunities (as I did in August, having sold in July).

Eric

A physcologist who can't spell psychologist????? you've got to laugh ;-)))

maddoctor

A doctor who admits he's mad! he's got to be sane!

Incidentally, if you really are a doctor, could you comment on the Alizyme thread, please.

I note that Quentin Griffiths, the Director who resigned in June, has sold 1.3M shares 'to satisfy institutional demand'. I suspect that institutional demand is far from satisfied and will help to carry the price up as positive trading reports continue to emerge.

Eric

ewrobson , no real comment on azm

Looks like the mms are on drugs this morning

capa

I particularly liked PUKEMAN's comment which was blank and probably very significant! What made you puke, man? (Sorry, that's a bit sick!).

Seriously, today's trading makes very interesting reading. Having been out for the day on the golf course (not quite Ryder Cup standard), you can sometimes get a better reading looking at the overall pattern. Comments:

1. The market initially went down with a bout of selling; may have been evil K and his evil spirits. Price dropped to 56.0 by 8.11 on 50K of sales.

2. Consistent buying at 57.0, market recovers to 59.0 by 9.17 on 135K of buys.

3, Buying continues to outweigh selling until price reaches 61.5 at 9.51. Total buys/sells just 350K so a lot of volatility without volume (total 235K buys and 115K sells).

4. Selling gradually catches up buying over rest of day finishing with a volume of 750K and a return to the starting point on price (53/39 buys to sells). Fairly typical volume. Spread back to three points whereas it had been 1 point at the middle of the day's trading when the even balance had been established.

I suspect you can learn quite a bit about the mm's tactics from the above which could inform the timing of transactions. Perhaps more pertinently, there appears to be a resistance point downwards at 57p and upwards about 62p, suggesting that the share might trade horizontally for a while. Views?

Eric

Eric

Also out on the Golf Course this afternoon, so missed most of the trading, although ASC was up when I went out. As you know I am quite sceptical about the value of ASC at the moment, but as I don't hold any, it's not a worry. I still believe the shares are overbought and overhyped and think that they may possibly retrace to lower levels. Having said that, they have traded more or less sideways since EK and others announced their shorts, so a plus so far. Clearly at the moment the Bulls and Bears are at a stalemate and it will be interesting to see which way it goes.The charts don't give a great deal of help either; Although the the MACD shows a Bearish Moving Average Crossover, this is the most common indicator and therefore results in the most false indicators. Not much help from the MA chart either, it's hit the 10 day so far, but that's not much help either. Personally I would buy some of these if they were a bit lower, so have a sort of vested interest, but a very difficult call at the moment.

regards

PTH

eric?, I'm watching for an entry , bears seem unable at the mo to drive price below 55( candles do suggest they are trying) and that number is the one to watch imo.