Anybody think Lloyds will bail out, or not be able to continue with HBOS takeover

tis a case of market sentiment. NRK, BB. A&L and HBOS were always the weakest but the market has certainly turned its attention to RBS today (unfortunately for me) because of the Ambro situation. I feel the next bank on the 'list' if it happens would be RBS. Expected it to be mnths away but after tonight maybe it is only days away. If RBS goes, then LLOY and BARC would be close behind.

IMO

ps I sincerely hope it doesn't happen cause I have RBS

Armageddon really is nigh

IMHO I'm surprised RBS has avoided the woes (they deserved, IMHO). Maybe RBS did pass the begging-bowl first, so that "may have" fixed things - certainly it was a great wheeze ( but a scam on RBS-shareholders, eh?).

All of this stemmed from the purchase of that Bank - Ambro, as you say. This was bought at the peak time for banking-shares. There were suggestions RBS paid "too much" ( as is always the case with buying turnover!) - and I don't think there was a retraqctment clause, which if set at 18 months would have reduced the price by a big-chunk.

The sorry thing is that Scots' pride has been battered by HBOS woes; and now it may be second-time arround . . . . . and this ignore the return of GB wrapped in tar. This Gov attempted to curry favour by boosting Nationalism, presumable it hurt Tory-hopes . . . . but 10-years on, it has shreaded all hopes of Labour Politicians, north of the Border.

Take a close look at the Ambro 'fiasco', call it what you will, and you may well be surprised to find that RBS actually ended up with the bargain end of the bank. There's no doubting that RBS is going to come under some intense pressure over the next few days UNLESS shareholders realize that they actually hold a solid share that will eventually pay mega dividends. DYOR but do it! Don't rely on others (yea, ok such as me!) to tell you what might be, RESEARCH it, I did, but I could just have missed something so that's why I say DYOR!

sentiment is everything in this market. Fundamentals mean nothing I'm afraid. If the market believes a cy is going bust then the sp collapses and everyone wants to bail out/ not do business with them = bust.

Nothing else matters

Things will be rough for banks now, but the Americans will still clobber something together for the bailout.

If things really turn bad, don't forget the lloy - hbos isn't a done deal yet, so it might not go through, it still needs to be voted on by share holders. So come on chaps, do try and look on the bright side of life, if I start singing that then you know it' all over.

heaven forbid! .... by the way, your Freudian slip should surely have read cobble, though i am sure some of the redneck renegades will get truly clobbered

Yes cobble it should have been, I should proof read my threads after a few glasses of wine. I think clobbering those idiots would be too good for them, hung strung and quartered.

lloy down 5% to 205p and hbos down 11% to 128p a few moments back. But using the takeover ratio of 0.83, hbos should be at 170p, the difference is growing each day. Are the markets now having doubts to the deal going through.

I'm sure Government will do everything in there power to keep it on track, but there may come a point when the short term threat may become to great for lloy.

Cant see Lloyds backing out of the best deal in the 21st Century - The government will probably throw sweetners in as well - But in these markets I suppose anything could happen. Banco Santander would rather have Hbos than AL. so no fear of a take-over not going through eventually. The Yanks will sort themselves out before Friday and everybody will be buying banks like madmen, then next week another twist...........

I hope you're right and those madmen start buying, the strange thing is that the gap has widened even further now, with lloy at 225p and hbos at 123p now. For the brave investor, buying hbos now would give many more lloy shares when the deal is/if passed. The correct ratio should be lloy = 225p and hbos = 186p, but the market is still to be convinced.

I been out walking the dogs but, my wife tells me from the news on TV that Lloyds is looking at the take over terms again which probably explains the widening between share prices spitfire43 mentions above. Lloyds appear to be in the driving seat.

was on bbc1 news.......mr.peston says the deal will NOT be changed........so hbos i imagine looking cheap this morning for the medium term

Correct Haggis. Lloyds say deal is still on same terms

under the old formula, i calculate that with LLOY at 227 (as now), HBOS would have been valued at 188 ...... HBOS is currently 128, so make of that what you will, always bearing in mind that there will always be something of a discount to cater for the time element involved


what's your take on this scotty?

hi cynic

i think in medium term say 2 to 3 years this is very cheap sp right now.......its ironic that city boys knocked hbos sp down last year on results day as they said they hadnt increased mortgage stuff / housing.....when their results were very good.

if you are day trading etc then best of luck as sp is all down to rumours every few hours it seems

greetings to my black clubman

Financial News
Tuesday September 30, 01:34 PM
HBOS plunges on Lloyds rescue doubts
By Lee Wild


LONDON (ShareCast) - Fears that Lloyds TSB may re-price its 12.2bn bid for HBOS (LSE: HBOS.L - news) helped shares in
the Halifax owner tumble by as much as a fifth on Tuesday.

Lloyds, which saw its value fall by 11% earlier today, agreed an all-share offer with HBOS less than a fortnight ago worth 0.83 Lloyds shares for every HBOS share held.

At 192.5p, the lowest Lloyds reached this morning, the deal values HBOS at less than 160p a share. Lloyds is now up to 225p, pricing its offer at 187p.

But HBOS has been struggling all day and, although its shares have halved their earlier deficit, they're still trading at just 127p.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is said to have encouraged Lloyds chairman Victor Blank to approach HBOS, leaving many doubting the deal will fail, but others believe the ongoing financial turmoil might give Lloyds a good excuse to renegotiate terms.

Lloyds TSB shareholders are said to dislike the big exposure HBOS has to the wholesale money markets, potentially damaging a generally more cautious Lloyds.

Three-quarters of them must back the takeover when they vote late next month or early in November (Frankfurt: A0S9N7 - news) in order for the deal to succeed

yes its up to shareholders......i think a lot of people have forgotten that.

mr.peston seems in the know and assured less than an hour ago on tv news about deal......remember he was the one that came out with breaking news on deal which should have been hush hush.

I think Banco Santander should step in - Offer more, drop AL. bid, and really set the cat among the pigeons !! And in these crazy times NOTHING would surprise me. BS were pissed that they never got to make an offer in the first place - Watch this space !

i knew a guy in hbos last year that told me BS would get hbos and this was before the financial collapse this year........unfortunately i aint seen the guy again as he has moved to another branch.

hbos is dead cheap now.....plus BS have all the deposit money from BB. as well now to use