Dear all,

In a moment of madness went long on MONI following Hammer on Friday on basis most beaten up stocks last to rally in extended bull run.

MONI has dropped from 1999/2000 high of 14.00 say or 1400p, FTSE Closed Friday 3952.60, reached high 6950.60 on 30th December 1999, Marconi Corporation starts 19th May 2003, presentations to analysts tomorrow 7th May 2003.

Approx 2003 low 1.13p, recent highs approx 2.50p

Hammer on Friday roughly 0.01p head ie very bullish 1.56p/1.55p with tail to 1.35p approx, needs to close above 1.50p/1.51p today IMHO to double hammer 1.55p/1.36p with high 1.58p, mid low 1.38p

On following logic I think MONI could go to 4.00p (3.98p) if break of 2.50p confirms

UKX C 02.05.2003 3952.60/6950.60 (UKX H 30.12.1999)x 1400p x 0.005 (0.50% post D4E)=3.98p



Views/opinions bull/bear please, I am long thinking could be biggest winner of May 2003 assuming the city are going to ramp the hell out of it when they own 99.50% of the company post D4E

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

LONDON (AFX) - Senior executives of troubled telecom equipment maker Marconi
PLC are set to go on a major charm offensive with investors on May 7 ahead of
the planned listing of Marconi Corp shares on May 19.
Marconi expects the UK and US courts to approve its huge debt rescheduling
plan in about 12 days time, enabling Marconi shares to start trading on May 19.
The company will tell investors that Marconi Corp's balance sheet bears
little resemblance to the old Marconi PLC.
As of Dec 31, 2002 Marconi Corp had net debt of 184 mln, gross debt of 788
mln and cash of 602 mln stg. Marconi PLC had net debt of some 3 bln stg and
gross debt of 4 bln.
Senior executives will also set out the strategy, products and services of
Marconi Corp.
Marconi's rescue plan, needed to avoid insolvency, involves a 4 bln stg
debt-for-equity swap with creditors, which will cede them 99.5 pct of the
company.
Under the terms of the proposed scheme creditors will also receive 340 mln
stg in cash. And as well as shares in the new company, to be renamed Marconi
Corp, they will also get a pro-rata share-out of loan notes.
tf/jc

surely it is an easy short as you know the new shares will have far less market cap than the old ones?

can you short over the transfer date?

I don't knnow without asking .... you do have to factor in the question of warrants



ains

don't they require a market cap of 1.5bn?

if so Ithink they are to all intents worthless as that ascribes too much hope value

something like that - just been looking for the detail but too many many announcements - will take all day

Ains,

I personally think the twin tests of 1.10p may mean this is a reversal point on day 55 (2.618 FR of 21 day up)of the drop from 2.50p.

It strikes me short closure on a 2.50p to 1.10p profit ie 100% net spread is likely to cause some short closure IMHO.



Cheers

Ash

intraday chart does not look promising but I am tracking in real time

Ains,

Bid increased from 1.02p to 1.10p towards close before settling back on 1.06p.

We do have an inverted head and shoulders with neckline around 1.17p implying a break of 0.15p once this breached to upside targetting 1.32p first move IMHO

sub 1p this morning




LONDON, May 13 (Reuters) - A City bookmaker estimates British telecoms equipment maker Marconi will have a market value of about 330 million pounds ($530 million) when "new" shares in the company start trading next week.
Shares in Marconi Corp -- or the "new" Marconi -- will start trading on Monday, replacing shares in Marconi Plc MONI.L as the restructuring of the company nears completion. One billion shares in Marconi Corp. will be issued.

Bookmaker Financial Spreads said it is offering a spread on the value of Marconi Corp. shares at Monday's close. It said the spread currently stands at 32-34 pence per share.

Analysts said the value of Marconi Corp. is difficult to determine as it emerges from a complex restructuring. Estimates of its market value have ranged between 200 million pounds and 600 million pounds, depending on uncertainty about how much of a "risk discount" to apply to the shares. For further details click on [nL1297385].

Ash - u still holding?

Dick,

Yes regretably. I should have been stopped out at 1.35p really.

I am hoping somewhat forlornly for a bounce from 0.955p or 38.20% of 2.50p

Cheers

Ash

Today's close was still far too high, but 32p to 34p for the new feels far too low and I expect a quick climb once the dust settles.

oh well in for the ride at .094 must be due a bounce!

Oh s--- to early as allways

Looks like we may turn now - dcb maybe but tradeable 0.85 currently

MONI Looks like moni are finished?

from the home page


'Mispricing' of new Marconi shares wets the appetite of the king of shorters

Evil Knievel aka Simon Caukwell's main short of the moment is Marconi. The group's capital and share reorganisation has meant bonanza time for the king of shorters.

He has spotted that the new Marconi shares which start trading next week are likely to
be valued at only around 0.02p compared to the current price of 0.085p down 16% today and down a walloping 35% this week.

This sort of market mispricing happens only rarely and may be due to the complexity of the Marconi restructuring which involves the banks taking 99% of the shares leaving shareholders with only around 1 million worth as the company's market cap is just 26 million. If Caukwell is right Marconi shares have a lot further to fall yet.

nice - like the way they make him out to look a fcuking genius when it has been obvious since the restructuring terms were announced

Yes ... inclined to agree ..... one hopes there is something he has forgotten about and the shares zoom by a factor of 5

Where is the line in the sand Keith ?

Ainsoph/Dick et al,

I closed my trade at an appalling loss this morning, just could not ignore the reality of the post D4E market cap, I would like to thank you all on this thread for your input, I am confident this loss would have got worse, and it is a salient lesson in the application of stop losses on break downs of hammer signatures.

Feeling very bruised by the experience, but believe I have done the right thing.

Now need to move forwards and find something to get my money back, preferably something that is realistically undervalued.

Once again thanks for your input.

Cheers

Ash

Hi Ash ....... you are probably right to close. We cannot win them all and must admit the valuation on these always looked a little strange



ains


an article in the Telegraph reports: the shares fell 0.12 to 1.01p as traders expect the restructured company to trade at between 20p to 60p when new shares in Marconi Corporation are listed on Monday 19 May. The new shares were trading at 50p in the grey market on Monday. However, spread betting firm Financial Spreads predicted the shares will close at between 32p and 34p on the first day of trading. Senior Trader Jim Morrison said: "We do not think the outlook for Marconi is particularly good."