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US Stocks hit a fresh 18-month high with the DOW ever closer to the key psychological level of 10,000, as blue-chip buying lifted the broader market ahead of the year's last Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting. Media companies say they expect global advertising spending to rise next year due to an improved economy and events such as the Olympics, but that Europe's growth will lag. Manchester United Irish racehorse magnates J.P McManus and John Magnier have raised their holding in to just over 24 percent from 23 percent previously, fuelling bid speculationFirst Choice Holidays beat forecasts with a 20 percent rise to 87.1 million pounds in annual profit on and was confident about this year, despite lagging sales for summer 2004 as customers continue to book holidays late. Greene King regional brewer and pubs group reported a 10 percent rise in its half-year profits and added that trading since the start of its second-half had been encouraging. They posted profits of 38.6 million pounds for the 24 weeks to October 19 compared with a consensus forecast of 38 million pounds. Standard Life mutual insurer reported a 22 percent fall in worldwide new business sales for 2003 on Tuesday but said it was optimistic after demand rose at the end of the year. New business sales fell to 1.42 billion pounds in the year to November 15, 2003 from 1.82 billion pounds the previous year.Severn Trent raised its first half dividend by 2.5 percent on Tuesday, signalling confidence in the upcoming regulatory review of its pricing structure as first half profits topped forecasts. Profit grew to 151.1 million pounds from 131.8 million pounds a year ago with analysts forecasts of 134.5 and 140 million pounds, It also raised its shareholder payout to 17.77 pence, at the top of expectations. PHS Group washroom services company reported a 21 percent rise in first-half to 20.8 million pounds but slightly below forecasts and said it expected more growth in the second half. Halma safety products firm said half-year pre-tax profits rose by 15 percent, to 24.4 million pounds above estimates, and said its outlook was in line with its expectations.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
First Choice Holidays (F) PBT 83.1m exp. Greene King (I) PBT 38m exp. Victrex (F) PHS Group (I) PBT 21.5m exp, Severn Trent (I), First Technology (I), Grainger Trust (F), Halma (I), ITE (F), Phytopharm (F), HSBC Trading Statement Denistron (DSN) Rights Issue Ex Date. Sub Price is 10p, Terms are 1 for 1 09.30 Oct World trade Balance -2.0bn exp	Alby (Q3), Analogic (Q3), CostCo (Q3) 15.00 Oct Wholesale Inventories 0.2% exp. 19.50 FOMC Rate Announcement	Lufthansa Traffic Figures 10.00 Dec German ZEW Economic Sentiment 70.7 exp.

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Zarif,

Still hoping to go but work situ is a bit messy at the moment so may have to give it a miss. should know by thur am

Hi Fundamentalist,

Glad my posts on AVZ were of use to someone.
Ref the ongoing situation, I've just read an article
on how Europe is starting to wake up to the situation.

Here are some pertinant extracts.

Amvescap has seen its share price suffer after it was named in a series of reports on the ongoing investigation in the US. Now the Luxembourg regulator, the CSSF, has confirmed it is looking into possible market timing in funds registered in the Grand Duchy. Reports have named Amvescap as one focus of these enquiries

SEC Commissioner Harvey Goldschmid last week told a Washington conference on securities law the current market timing scandal represented 'a grievous betrayal of trust'.
'The investigations are ongoing, but at this point it is clear that venal self-interest has been widespread,' he said. 'Too often, fund officials - and other members of the financial community, including broker-dealers and bankers - have corruptly made themselves and their wealthy clients even richer at the expense of small fund shareholders.'
'Let me emphasize that I am not talking about a 'few rotten apples'. Much of the conduct has indeed been rotten, but we are now dealing with a significant number of senior fund employees and other members of the financial community. I expect the fund scandals to grow larger and more widespread as investigations continue,' he warned.

Anyone remember what happened to ADN because of the Split Trust debacle
and the exploits of Chris Fishwick, amongst others?
A salutary tale.
Melnibone.

Melnibone,

thanks for that, just more confirmation that I am holding part of the short open for a while longer - it appears where ever you turn, there is some more bad news about Amvescap to read.

Well done Testex!

STOCKCAHRTS
12/9: 10K target hit today, and as expected is providing resistance.
This pattern should finally have been completed at today's high, and the inability to hold 10K and the technical divergences support that conclusion so far.
We should test 9800 tomorrow if the trend has changed, and judging by the ndx's failure to rally today as well it is highly likely.
So, once again there is a decent aggressive short play with a stop at today's high. Conservative play is to wait for the form of this decline and fade a corrective rally if it looks impulsive.
Key level is the wave 4 low around 9850 as any decline that was part of a larger pattern down should easily breach that level.
Failure to do so is a warning that this 5th wave is extending higher, to be confirmed by new high for the move.
It is truly amazing how long this market has held up without correcting the 2600pt rally from 7400, and has definitely caused me and just about everyone else to call a top early and often.
Note that a 'normal' correction for this size of a pattern is 38% if it's a 4th wave, and that's nearly 1000pts.
By that measure a test of 9K is expected even if it is a new bull market if we've finally completed the rally.



Updated 12/9 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/10
UP Above 10,000
DN Below 9,840

Double-Top at 10,000
Dow hits 10,000, then reverses.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow pushed solidly higher off the lower boundary of the wide trading range today, which forced an upside break from the consolidation...The upside break from the range implies continued strength..."
The Dow opened the session higher this morning and made its way toward the 10,000 level. We hit 10,000 early in the session, but were not able to hold above the level. Instead, the Dow set up what would later become a double-top reversal to the downside, seen in the 15 Minute Chart, which led to a 42 point loss for the session.

The fact that the Dow was not able to break through the 10,000 level hints at the likelihood of the index staging another move lower within the longer term uptrend, seen in the Daily Chart. The index may push lower within the trend and test the lower trend line at about 9,750. A downside break through 9,850 will increase the odds of such a move.

Otherwise the index will likely continue to trade between the levels of 9,850 and 10,000 until a break from this range occurs. We realize this is a wide range to watch, but we could experience whipsaw activity if action is taken within the range, which is why we want to wait for a break of either boundary.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 9,917 to 9,935. An downside break is implied, but watch both boundaries for direction at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we closed Longs today at 9,830, giving us a 33 point gain for the prior trade. We are now out of the market and will watch 9,840 down, and 10,000 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ experienced a "Pop and Drop" today, while the S&P basically did likewise. Each index ended the day near session lows and will likely continue trending lower within their respective ranges. *

Summary

The Dow saw a double-top at 10,000 today, sparking a decline late in the session. The index is likely to continue trending lower toward the major lower trend line from the Daily Chart. A break at 9,850 will indicate continued weakness, while an upside break through 10,000 will spark another move higher.


WED FTSE PP

R2 4430
R1 4405
PP 4382
S1 4357
S2 4335

Close was above Tue r1 but lost 3.2pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart tricky again, brk out of 4360 on Tue, uptrend off Mon low broken through 4385 on Tue so pos test of s1, positive FED comments will no doubt push ftse back up to the bottom of the TL at 4400!

Testex-Dow is ED Downs i,m afraid but glad I could help! My own pp,s and analysis ftse though, well done! From many a chat on the Traders room Gurus are a no no, but Ed downs provides levels and likely scenarios, he does not pretend to have the Holy Grail, I cannot remember the last time his level brks were wrong, stick with him and avoid the NOISE!