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Afternoon guys/gals.Copy of Tom Hougards email analysis.
Nice sunny day hope the rays of sunshine hit us on the market aswell.
rgds
zarif

Lets review the situation of the market.



The market topped out on the 24th March 2000. We then dropped a classic 50% to end the bear market (for now) on the 10th October 2002. We then rallied 50% into the 17th February 2004.



In other words we went from 1554 to 775 and from 775 to 1163. This is the situation as we stand right now. The market looks tired and undecided to me. It is true that we have not seen any serious downside and we may rally from here beyond the 1163. However, we need to take out the 1163 area first. This has not happened yet and until it does you should be careful about being too enthusiastic about the long side.



The question you got to ask yourself is this: has the easy money been made in this market? Has the risks of the markets adequately been priced in? These are of course not technical questions but belong to the category of fundamental analysis. My argument here is that stocks are priced to beyond perfection. The stock market is expecting the US consumer to carry on spending. This is despite the fact that the bond market is now pricing in more rapid interest rate rises than Allan Greenspan is talking about.



The market found resistance at 1142 and dropped as I had hoped for. For today I am undecided. The market is in pre-holiday mode with Friday being closed for Reagans funeral. Today is roll-over day from June to Septembers contract. This creates a funny market.



The institutions will most likely have another wave of buying to mark up their portfolios going into month/quarter end. The market needs to hold the 1128 area from yesterday. This was test during the night and held. We are currently trading at 1135 in the SP500. A move below 1128 is a short with a tight stop. Otherwise, despite the sell-off yesterday you will need to favour the long side of the market.

Big Al

Thanks for comments on WMK - decided to wait, am well in profit. Bad news is I hold Aerobox too!

Commiserations jj, but it happens. Been there far too many times too.

;-((

Right, let's see what our US buddies have got to say for themselves.

Why is there so many new names posting in the investers room ? are they from the traders room.

yep :-)how is every one ????

aldwickk - yes. Hi!

Just noticed BT.A, this share has been creeping upwards over the last few days
after doing very little for quite a while. (Don't really mind, as I hold some
in the medium term portfolio and they are in profit!)

CTM started to move up :-))))))

Yes much more civilised here than the traders room thread you can't get a word in edgeways over there :)

JKX finally got its fuse lit. Still long and now looking at a blue value. ;-))

Yes, CTM is moving up, but don't expect it to stay there!

Afternoon all,

Just a quick word, I'll be setting off shortly for a long weekend's
holiday.

Left my short running on the NDX, can't see a lot of damage being done
to that in half a day's US trading.
Hoping for a profit taking sell off in the after lunch US session. It's
come a long way this week and folk may want to lock some in for the
long weekend in the US.

If I'm right, FTSE will open lower tomorrow and fiddle about on low volume
with no US market to guide it. This would leave me with a larger profit to
take on my NDX short and some lower prices on the FTSE on Monday morning
when I get back.

But, as they say, the best laid plans of mice and men.
We'll see.

Have a good weekend all, see you next week.

Melnibone.

got me finger ready on the sell button,have 20k to ditch :-)

Things are starting to get a bit more lively again.

Another holiday Melnibone? :-) have a lovely time

Mega Bucks, with that amount the price will drop just by you selling!

reckon the Yankee market will have a bit of life say the first couple of hours and then trail sideways as people go off as the market is closed tommorrow.
Agree with melnibone rather to be on th short than long as they lack some credibility to say the least.

rgds
zarif

Melnibone, have a good weekend.

I see ASC is going up rapidly, some good news.

Hope you don't mind me butting in as a newbie to your thread, though I have traded for many years. I like the high-beta stocks for short term trades but also when they are in the mood small caps. What is the latest thinking on RAB, which i have held since GF's tip a while ago.

I don't usually let them go through stop losses but liked the story from outset.

Thanks.

PS Cracking breakout from DATA today.

Melnibone enjoy your looooong weekend!

Bigal they are all posted now you,ve started, you have,nt been using the free werthers trick have you?:)

Mega Bucks - is that you at 86.5p?