bosley
- 20 Feb 2004 09:34
bosley
- 26 Apr 2005 17:08
- 3429 of 27111
me 'ead 'urts!!!
bosley
- 26 Apr 2005 17:15
- 3430 of 27111
if the last two large trades were indeed sells, then that's the tree well and truly shook.
EWRobson
- 26 Apr 2005 17:28
- 3431 of 27111
Suspect those last two large trades are buys. At the time of the transactions, at 20.98p and 21p, the spread quoted was 20.75 to 21.25. The best selling transactions around that time were 20.80p, whereas other buys were close to 21p. I suspect that most 'O' selling is smaller quantities; institutions and larger investors are likely to be more recent holders and thus to be primarily in buy mode.
Sympathy with bos's hurting head - think I'll lie down to recover! I thought the computer was king, so its rather sweet to see them trotting off down to the trading floor and manually trading their transaction with themselves! We seem to be getting a lot of these mysterious large transactions, suggesting that SEO is becoming a serious play for major players. What thinkest thou God and Dog?
Eric
bosley
- 26 Apr 2005 19:07
- 3432 of 27111
quite possible eric. it would support tfc's theory about there being a large , mysterious, enigmatic buyer lurking furtively in the shadows, slowly but surely filling his boots. he must have very big boots!!!!!
stockdog
- 26 Apr 2005 19:29
- 3433 of 27111
I'd put the large unknown at 21p as a buy, but the large odd amount trade at 20.98 as a sell - someone clearing their entire holding including any odd placing amounts received - buys at that size tend to be round numbers, I feel. Maybe someone who hung on to see if the steep rise would continue unabated and thought they'd cash in when the price started oscillating around the 21p level, having made a fair whack already. No matter, a little liquidity will help the market not to become too volatile.
Otherwise, I'm with Bos on this one - sore 'ead! Rather than waiting for the clock to reach midnight, I'm going to watch a bit of TV, safe in the knowledge that as time rolls ever forward, SEO will in general climb ever upwards for now.
If you really want to try to understand the market mechanism, let me attempt to regurgitate what I think I learned from bullshare at the trading day recently.
You have to imagine that there are a whole load of MM and level 2 buyers stacked up waiting to be satisfied at, say, 20.50p, 20.4p, 20.3p and below in various volumes in strata formation, highest price first in the cue; and on the other side a whole load of the same type of sellers asking 21.50 and above, lowest price first in the cue to be filled - there is a gap in the price, literally the bid/offer spread.
Gradually from one side or other someone decides they want the transaction to happen rather than hold out for the price they wanted and they creep ("walk") the price towards the middle ground, until an opposite number (a bit like a trout rising to a fly?) steps into the middle ground and says - fair enough deal done. So a matching buyer and seller each disappear from the front of the cue. I do not know whether this is reported as a buy or a sell - I suspect it is reported as the action of whoever finally took the last step in to meet the price - if a buyer steps up to cover the offer, then its a buy; if a seller lowers their expectations to meet the price it's a sell. Whoever moved off their block to make the transaction happen is an individual choice, not a market moving choice and could be from either side as far as Level 1 punters are concerned, we won't ever know. Meanwhile the stand off published bid/offer spread is static. Big trade, no change. Imagine many of these throughout the day - all sells, no change to the SP.
More complex - a buyer, say, thinks the SP is worth more on some new news or analysis and wants to acquire a significant tranche ahead of the crowd. S/he steps up to a price of say 21.75, taking the entire first line of seller defence at 21.50p down in one plus a few more further down the cue at 21.6, 21.7 and as many at 21.75p as the volume of buy order will cover. So, the front line of attack from buyers is still at 20.50, but the front line of defence from the sellers is now at 21.75. Other buyers, may well shufle forward to take up a forward position of 20.75p, inspired by the first chap and hoping to lure a defending seller down to this new level. This is when the published bid/offer will actually move to 20.75/21.75, I believe.
So actual buying and selling that we see at Level 1, whilst indicative, does not truly express the appetite sitting (visible to Level 2 players) and what volume of seller is "taken out" by a volume buyer, or vice versa, if someone believes the value should or will fall and is prepared to capitulate across the existing bid/offer gap to get their holding safely away.
When pent up volume demand leaps across the gap like this, sentiment (fear and greed get temporarily out of balance when the crowd see one or more significant transactions moving away from the status quo ) can magnify the movement into quite a sudden and seemingly inexplicable shift up or down the ladder. Followed by the often seen settling back from the extreme first SP movement, when they realise the world is not going to end tomorrow.
The bid/offer spread is not created by each MM, saying if you buy from me it's this price, if you esell to me it's that price; rather each MM at any given time is a buyer or a seller by sentiment, placing waht we see as the offer or bid price respectively on the common counter top of the electronic market-place, waiting so see if anyone agrees with them. Obviously an MM can change its point of view if they spot a silly price somewhere on the counter that they can swallow and still make a turn when they re-price it in the opposite direction. So, I am not sure we are corect to balme MM's for a big bid/offer spread, since no one MM controls both prices at the same time - it is the market appetite unrequited that determines where these opposing prices sit in an endless game of trench warfare, win a little lose a little ground, but you're sure as hell gonna end up covered in mud which is by happy coincidence an apt simile for the clarity of this short treatise on the human condition.
Is this making any sense at all? Well, you did ask for it.
Here endeth the lesson.
SD
bosley
- 26 Apr 2005 20:37
- 3434 of 27111
sd, now my 'ead 'urts even more!!!!!!
bosley
- 26 Apr 2005 20:40
- 3435 of 27111
so , basically, looking at level 1 means you only get to see the tip of the iceberg. whereas level 2 lets you see whats going on under the water. therefore, anyone without access to level 2 really doesn't have a clue....
boo boop de doo!!(sorry, it rhymed)
stockdog
- 26 Apr 2005 21:05
- 3436 of 27111
pretty much, bos, but level 1 hurts your head less
superrod
- 26 Apr 2005 22:35
- 3437 of 27111
L2 is much easier to understand when you are actually LOOKING at it. all the orders ( both buy and sell ) are listed as well as who is on the bid/offer. i strongly recommend peeps keep an eye open for L2 free access which is occasionally offered on this site.
i was dipping in and out of corus and making a hundred quid or so a trade, simply by buying if it dropped 2% or more, then selling when up a ton.
just about to have another punt when a free L2 trial appeared on the bb. had a quick look and spotted a huge wad of sells in the pipeline. saved me a bundle. shame my trading frequency doesnt justify a sub.
EWRobson
- 26 Apr 2005 22:59
- 3438 of 27111
By gum! Insight! That dog has done it again: he's a very clever dog, putting his erstwhile masters and mistresses to shame.
Begin to see what level 2 offers; all the gobbledy gook didn't seem to amount to much. superrod, your use of level 2 is effectiely use it to determine when to sell or buy and at what price as you can see the oreders in the pipeline: is that right? Or can you join in the 'floor' electronically and match a bid or offer. 40 a month; in what sense that's not a lot if you can use the information to make even a few hundred on a number of trades.
Eric
superrod
- 26 Apr 2005 23:21
- 3439 of 27111
EWRobson
i rarely watch my monitor for extended periods ( unfortunately ). i trade irregularly, sometimes once a day, sometimes once a month.
L2 can change VERY rapidly, so to get the best from it i find you need a trade set up with an online broker, ready to pounce. it may ONLY be 40, but that is most months 40 down the drain. i have asked MAM if its possible to subscribe on a per day/week basis ( the odd day off or maybe a weeks sick leave )when far more time could be used monitoring L2 but they say its not feasible.
i use TDW, and they offer the facility to bid or offer your own price, which i assume means joining one of the L2 queues. the drawback is that it may take some while before your order is filled ( if at all ).
L2 does not guarantee anything, it is merely a chance to be a shade ahead. just imagine if YOU were the only one with real time streaming and the rest of us relied on teletext.
in the meantime i am indebted to the generous peeps who will offer L2 info when requested.
all i really need to know to stop me from worrying too much is that there are far more on the bid than the offer.
btw i am not intending to clutter this thread with unrelated issues to SEO, i hold 52000 at 14.9p average and hope the good news continues
EWRobson
- 26 Apr 2005 23:40
- 3440 of 27111
Thanks again, superrod. It is relevant to SEO trading as much as any share, aprticularly now it is generating far more institutional interest. I think a key point that you have brought out is that there is visibility of the number of shares waiting to be executed as well as price restrictions. The only real info you have with L1 is trades volumes to date and sometimes the actual sp movements are surprising: significant change on low volume or no change on high. Obviously need to give it a trial. I am not really a trader in the sense of being active every day but I am beginning to see the relevance to CFD trading in that you should be able to predict the movement of your open position much better - e.g. close a position before the price drops rather than after. Given that the movement per day in the total open position can be several K, 40 is not much in comparison.
Eric
aldwickk
- 27 Apr 2005 08:01
- 3441 of 27111
Open a CFD account with IG markets , and get level 2 free.
bosley
- 27 Apr 2005 08:11
- 3442 of 27111
morning. aldwick, now you tell me!
stockdog
- 27 Apr 2005 08:15
- 3443 of 27111
The other thing you can do with L2 is effectively become a market maker - you place your offer or bid where you want in the queue. By placing your offer (i.e. the counterparty's bid) a shade higher than the front of the queue you can determine that your order is next to be filled. Being a private punter with low overheads, you can undercut the professionals. Similarly, you can sell from the front of the queue by placing your order at a slightly lower price than the front of the seller's queue.
The basic advantage, as superrod says, is to see that there is a large line of stock on offer, just as you were thinking of buying in. The slightest shift in price acceptability will swallow several buy orders down to a level lower than you were contemplating buying. So wait till that is out of the way and the weight of the market is on the buy side, pushing the price the other way. Or carefully insert your buy order at the lowest price that will still be included in the sell order from the other side.
If I had Level 2 I would definitely do no work at all, thereby ending up getting fired and having to liquidate my portfolio to pay the bills. So in that sense it would defintely be bad for my health.
At least Level2 gives us something to talk about whils the market is so flat and no news from SEO.
SD
016622
- 27 Apr 2005 14:27
- 3445 of 27111
with you on that one og
but people dont get too excited when sp is going downwards...ticking up now and chart loooks good for support at 20p.
Fred1new
- 27 Apr 2005 17:57
- 3447 of 27111
Driver. I hope you were in the jury, not the dock.
EWRobson
- 27 Apr 2005 18:28
- 3448 of 27111
I don't know whether the source of silence is the depressing market or the wisdom of dogfucius! Just though I would say 'hello'; its a lovely evening down in deepest East Sussex. Just off for a dover sole, with, I am afraid to say, a good red (can't get a blue!). Can you just say 'woof' please, sd?
Had a good 24 hours with MOI: engaging study followed by acquisition of a decent position; lots of buying without any movement in price. Opportunity knocks - but don't sell SEO to do it, mind.
Eric