rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

The US government reports more grim news about the economy: 240,000 jobs lost in October and unemployment rate spikes to 6.5%.

200k was expected ..... Dow now showing +60 vs +110 before announcement

UK interest rate cut
i think it is almost inconceivable that if the banks do not voluntarily pass on this latest cut, then the gov't will force them to do so.

that will then give the public an injection of "feel good" factor, even if it is only short-lived and encourage some Christmas spending ...... imo, ASC will be among the serious beneficiaries of this.

as an aside, Beloved and daughter reckon the new Westfield shopping mall is absolutely fantastic and is causing the West End stores quite a lot of concern

I reckon Brown, Darling & King are playing the kidology card by talking tough about the banks passing on the full 1.5%, when they know darn well there is no better way to restore the capital base of the banks, and it's not quite so high profile as 'taxpayers billions bail out banks' and the bonus is, the banks take the blame. Aimo of course.
2517

it benefits all if sentiment can be changed for the better

Absolutely cynic, but you can bet your last centime who will benefit least.
2517

at least my mortgage is a true tracker, so i have certainly gained in full

I am pleased for all mortgage holders that my 3434 post appears to be wrong re the banks passing the interest rate cut on, if so then I have done Brown, Darling and King a disservice, and I stand corrected.
2517

I had expected to place long today on ftse, but to high at moment. Will look out for a drop below support 4476, before going long.

time to put thinking caps on ...... some pundits feel that we are at or at least very close to the bottom for share prices ...... there are strong rumours that our beloved leader will now cut taxes in one way or another, not merely to con and curry favour of course, but in an attempt to kick start some spending, especially over the Christmas period.

that being so, which sectors will be the beneficiaries?
looking out of my window, the first but frivolous thought would be boat builders and chandlers.

on a more serious note, companies like WOS certainly come to mind, and some select high street outfits like ASC and (perhaps) MKS, + DOM or slightly more questionably, RTN, and MJW even though that has taken another modest kicking this morning

Everyone I've spoken to recently have decided to restrict Christmas presents to children only, but generally maintain food and drink levels where possible. That probably bodes well for the traditional supermarkets, but not so good for the more generalised retailers such as M&S or the high street electricals such as Comet, DSG etc.

In my opinion.


Strawbs.

i'll second that, and i certainly would not include white goods retailers in my selection ..... you may be right about M&S and confess that has never been a fave of mine, though it should still derive some benefit from any gov't largesse, albeit that that will just be added to (y)our tax bill in the years to come

I gather we may have a reverse head and shoulders pointing to rally on nasdaq etc but it is a bear market and commercial property is said to be in crisis(Trump, Singapore towers) and credit card debt reaching for the moon. Key s@p levels are 897 825 768 on downside

is a reverse head and shoulders much the same as mitzy's famous double bottom!?

FTSE tested the support at 4476 but bounced up again, so still waiting.

Would think stores like Argos will do well up to christmas, I used Argos last month and staff and customer service was excellent. Just a shame that Home Retail (home) still have the Homebase business.

I think M&S food will do OK because of the "luxury" status of the brand (rightly or wrongly), but I think clothing will be terrible. I think M&S clothes would normally benefit from Christmas on two fronts. Firstly from the point of view of "smartening up" to visit "once a year" relatives, Christmas/New Year parties etc. Secondly as easy presents for adults because of the implied quality and ease of returning post Christmas. This year I think most people will make do, and fewer presents amongst adults probably means far less trade.

People I know that generally treat themselves to "big ticket" items over Christmas (TV's, gadgets etc.) are putting any purchases off this year until things become clearer (job security etc.). Some also plan to wait for the sales before buying any presents for the children.

All "hear say" evidence I know, but does point to a miserable Christmas for retailers if replicated in the wider community.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

i would agree except i think that the banks will indeed be forced to pass on most if not all of the latest rate cut (racing certainty imo) and there seems to be significant chatter of imminent tax cuts in one respect or another ...... get both, and i think you'll find that christmas trade will be far better than feared

If the government go for tax cuts, I think people would just use any extra money to save or pay off debt. Shoppers know that 2009 will be very hard, and have already made up their minds about spending.

Tax cuts are just too much of a chance on how people would use the extra cash. If the Government needed to increase national debt still further why not spend extra money on infrastructure which would give a boast to some sectors short term, but also benefit the economy after recession.

depends on the form of any tax cut ..... as gov't would want to increase spending, a (temporary) cut in VAT as mooted is certainly not out of the question

Maybe. Once people go into their shell though they often take time to come out of it again. I think it's one of those genetic responses we all have. If you've been close to losing your home or your job, you probably won't be tempted to spend spare cash due to lower interest rates or tax cuts.

Encouraging people to spend more (probably on credit) is not a great idea, and 0% interest rates did nothing for a decade in Japan. Don't be surprised if we get there too, and suffer the same fate.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

I keep hearing people say we are going to have a bear rally for a few weeks.

As I see it the problem is that compared to the last few weeks the FTSE is relatively high already and a rally from here is going to put us over the 5000 mark.

The pull back this afternoon doesn't surprise me and I'm sure a lot of people have been burnt by it.