How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

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Actually I got it wrong is was nearer to 10,000-1. I was looking at the goal in the last minute scenario on both live matches this week. Unfortunately only looking!!!

Scrip, how does the statistics compare between first minute and last minute goals
in both halves?

Scrip, yes I'm only going to use small amounts for the next few weeks as I need to gain more experience in managing the position. From what I've worked out, there's the rare occurance that you can afford to insure against, but there are also going to be less than perfect situations that'll need careful management. While playing the other night, I moved all the profit to ManU only to have Fulham equalise near the end. Ended break-even.

What's worse was my wife, who was actually watching the game, said that Fulham were starting to look dangerous.... there was a told-you-so moment in the 87th minute!

So far so good, applied the strategy to the UEFA cup match Grazer AK v AZ Alkm (whoever they are!) and thanks to a one team going 2-0 up I didn't have to green up until late in the match. I had 1-1 covered just in case.
Nice percentage profit, though the 5% Betfair commission takes the edge off it a bit.

Scrip, you've probably worked out which strategy I'm using with the football matches. I was just wondering... is this strategy going to decay over time if too many people start using it ? The odds offered on the exchange are based on supply and demand, but also on the underlying probability of a win / draw.

Might the pricing become so efficient one day that there is no opportunity to make money, or is this strategy likely to work all the time football matches are offered on the exchange 'in-play' ?

I sure have, we discussed it at the course. It is discussed a lot on the Betfair forums and is a source of constant debate. Any strategy you use you should be looking at the failure point as that defines the whole system.

The implications of your strategy is that because lots of people are doing it it is distorting the market and presenting opportunties elsewhere.

In general the market is efficient and each time it is pushed out arbs move in to bring it back to balance. It would appear though that because the majority of Betfair users generally aim for the obvious it is creating a value gap in some markets. But of course you need to know that it exists and how to take advantage of it.

Incidentally if any body is attending the course on the 23rd in London and would like me to test a theory on the soccer markets I will be happy to back test it or at least make comment on it if I have seen it in use before.

Same applies to prior course attendees if you are mulling over something.

I've just booked a place on the course, so I'll take you up on that offer once the order goes through.

Nice 1.02 reversal again on the 9.00 intraday. Oh what a beautiful day :-)

If anyone is up to speed on the FTSE on Betfair there may well be some cracking opportunities during the expiry, 10-11 and possibly either side.

Thanks for the tip-off Kayak. And congratulations on catching that reversal!

Great fun here piptrader. Another 1.01 reversal on the 9-10!

I've got a query for Scrip on the soccer markets:

You stressed that the best plan is to go for strong home favourites, and I've been more or less sticking to that format. It seems to work well, though I've been surprised at the number of matches where the away team has managed to equalise after the home team has scored first (or maybe that's just Newcastle...). In matches where there's no strong favourite, how does it work out if you lay the draw, with the plan of eliminating the risk/greening up once one or other side scores? I suppose what I'm saying is - what is the risk of a no-score draw? Not only that, but is it possible to avoid most no-score draws with any accuracy using your knowledge of soccer - ie sticking to teams that tend to score/concede a lot of goals?

Sorry if you covered this during the Nov. seminar - if you did I've forgotten. I think that I could do with a revision seminar!

I've been assuming the bookies have priced the game up correctly and so the probability of a no-score draw is the current odds of the 0-0 'Correct Score'. I haven't seen a match yet where an away underdog scores first, but it's probably quite costly when it happens.

Kayak - yes, I laid off my down bet at 1.02, but didn't think there was sufficient chance of a reversal to take the 1.01 punt. With the benefit of hindsight, which I suppose ought to have been foresight, there was nice support at 4724 (Mar futures) from a couple of days ago, which in the event worked well.

Given that this bet did eventually end down, it raises an interesting dilemma: do you let the bet run to the close of the hour, or take a profit on the way. In post 301 above, you got out early which turned out to be the wrong thing. This time, if you didn't get out early, that was also wrong!

Scrip has posted this a.m. on the Betfair forum that over a long period the ftse stats are about right, so that would favour taking a reasonable profit if it became available, and greening up.

Or do you give the crystal ball an extra polish, and hope for the best?!

Well I give my plastic ball an extra polish :-)

Seriously I guess it's down to a feel for it. You're really guessing as to how and to what extent the market is being manipulated. On options expiry morning it's 80% manipulation. In these situations it's pretty safe to lay at the lowest odds you can find below 1.1. Even if it doesn't reverse all the way, you are likely to be able to close in profit. I got the 9.00 very right, the 10.00 right, and the 11.00 I messed up, by which I mean I didn't make the bucketful that was there asking to be had.

When a reversal starts to happen people rush for the exit and if you are unsure if it's going to go through the line, enter a closing bet at 1.9 or 1.99, since 2.0 is a psychological barrier for anyone on the wrong side of the action. That will get you almost half of the potential profit if you green up there. It's surprising how many times that will be filled and you can always enter again at a lower price once the panic stops. Now that's what I should have done for the 11.00 but of course I wanted to be clever and get more :-)

Thanks Kayak. Good point about the 2.0 level.

Sorry you didn't make the hat-trick, but 2 out of 3 isn't bad :-)

lizafl2 - 17 Dec'04 - 10:47 - 356 of 357

I'll reply to the email you sent me this morning so I can cover of those points as well. I was in and out of the Newcastle match breifly but it wasn't one of the matches that I was on in any great way. It probably wouldn't have been a match I would have picked.

TPO - Look forward to meeting you.

"I haven't seen a match yet where an away underdog scores first, but it's probably quite costly when it happens."

It certainly is!! Was chatting to somebody this morning about this weekends matches and talking through the various scenarios. We ran through a few where exactly that had happened in the past. Unfortunately its almost impossible to indentify when that is going to happen.

Kayak - 17 Dec'04 - 11:56 - 359 of 361

Thats a good post!

Harlosh, Further to our conversation on Friday hope you are green on your premiership match now. A perfect start!!