< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Brent oil price taking a rest for the last couple days
the uptrend of the last 4 weeks is taking a slow down trend again
4$ down from the top $62.50 intraday high recently
------------------ Intraday Brent Oil ----------------------------------------- 1 month ---------------

Has someone taking a SHORT when share price was above 13.50p earlier?.......

Yes a broker has come out at 4.15pm with Downgrade for AFR............. from 90p to 2p

Certaily one can not trust anyone this days, too many corruption around, not only the Nigerians, chinese, pakistany, the brokers sell their arse for a few dollars also.

19-Feb-15 Westhouse Securities Sell 90.00 2.00 Downgrade

note - i am not a holder

Cynic re your post 3447 - you write ..
1/ the company is swamped with debt
2/ the price of extraction remains significantly(?) above the present price of either
brent or wtl (take your pick)
3/ there is no management worth a candle
4/ there is no need for any bidder, should there be one, to offer more than a paltry
amount which, so long as he can satisfy the bondholders to some degree, will
probably be accepted
5/ there is no need for any bidder, should there be one, to have the remotest concern
for the interests of the PIs, so they'll end up with zero"

My view is as follows
1/ "The Co. is swamped with debt" - a large part of the debt seems to be long term
debt not immediately due for repayment, plus the October 9 month report shows
that Afren have net assets after all debt of about $1.9 billion.
Admittedly some of those assets are oil in ground reserve estimates which will
need to be recalculated, but none the less Afren seems to be far from insolvent, .
2/ Can you recall where you found out about the extraction costs ?
I have been trying to calculate it from the Oct quarterly report etc and get to about
$56 a barrel which is not good, but I think my figure is incorrect, and they may be
able to reduce that figure in the light of tighter margins and with cost savings and
targeted production increases. From where did you get your information ?
I would like to see the figures.
3/ "There is no management worth a candle" To me the ex chairman who is a qualified
accountant, and should know the legal regulations, has taken the helm.
He seems to be keeping us informed, and Afren is probably a better company for
not having a crooked CEO at the helm and a crooked Nigerian local advisor.
Some City advisers are presently supporting bond holders and management,
and maybe looking for a buyer of some Afren assets ?
4/ and 5/ I agree with you entirely.
If somebody is going to make an offer they are doing it for their own best interests,
and not as charitable gesture to Afren shareholders. Afren maybe better off going
it alone. My guess, for what it is worth, is that the price of crude may rise to $80
( to about the shale oil break even point ) after some months, when in the OPEC
members see more intertnal instability and they start screaming at Saudi

Just my own thoughts ................
( I have 100,000 Afren shares and am down a packet, so I am trying to be optimistic )

#2
i think i may have got that number from a morgan stanley analysis about extraction costs across the world
it was several weeks ago but may have a bash at finding it

i lied :-)
below is an adequate article, though it is dated

go to http://uk.businessinsider.com/crude-oil-cost-of-production-2014-5
you'll find a table and more there but it won't c+p



Think Global More: Oil Think Global
The Middle East Has A Huge Advantage In The Global Oil Market


MAY 13, 2014, 4:41 PM 2,826
The unconventional technology that enables us to extract oil from shale has triggered a boom in American energy.

While North American energy production has exploded, this doesn't necessarily put the the region on a level playing field as the mega-exporters in the Middle East.

One reason why the Middle East continues to be in a relatively comfortable spot is because cost of production is so low.

Morgan Stanley analysts recently included this chart of crude production costs. Onshore Middle East oil sites are much cheaper to tap than North American shale, which costs about $65 per barrel to extract. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing isn't cheap.

This is a huge advantage, especially as fluctuating prices often make production unprofitable for higher cost sources.

What amount is hedged for this year rekirkham ,i can't find it now .

jimmy b------For memory I think it is 75% @ 90$, but wouldn't put money on it.
2517

Thanks George ,i thought it was 90's but didn't know how much .

jimmy - sorry I do not know -

From niceonecyril-------- A third of production (30-35k bopd) is hedged at $90 until December 2015 I believe.

So not 75% as I stated, just 33%
2517

Just came across this??

-------------------------------------------------------------
The Feb 2015 DEFINITIVE list of AIM casino/LSE oil and gas shares that are about to go BUST.
extensive research has gone into this.


Afren
Bahamas
Borders&Southern
Falkland O+G
Forte
Inspirit
Independent Res
KEA
Mosman
Max Pet
New World
Northern Pet
Tangiers
Tower
Trap
UK O+G

All the above are basket cases. They either have no commercial hydrocarbons, no money or have massive debts. Stay well clear.

And ??

cyril - looks more like someone's wish list from elsewhere :-) .....

that said, there must surely be a good chance of several of those minnow-minnow stocks turning to dust, with AFR being an interesting contender

Forte has no oil because it a uranium exploration company......AFR might recover...the others don't look in good shape...

But isn't there an obvious one missing re that list? Currently about 36p..

Date Broker New target Recomm.
25 Feb Citigroup 10.00 Neutral
--------------------

That's clever citigroup !!

Might be worth another punt at around the 7p level.

I think they have to make a payment this month end, that they should have paid
last month end ?
It may be worth having a punt that they will make the bond payment ????

Monday may see relief or major issues

Am I right ??

I recon they are looking for a buyer for their Kurdistan interests ?

There was yesterday a rumour and as there is no news today it must have been

AFR
Details of $350m cash injection proposal are leaking. Source Bloomberg,

Ashmore, Pimco Said to Seek Control of Afren in Creditor Talks
By Julie Miecamp and Luca Casiraghi

(Bloomberg) -- Afren Plc’s bondholders are offering to inject as much as $350 million into the U.K. oil drilling company in exchange for control, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Ashmore Group Plc, JPMorgan Asset Management and Pacific Investment Management Co. are among creditors offering to provide Afren with the cash it needs to avoid a possible default as soon as Friday, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.
Afren, which has $1.3 billion of debt, has to make a $50 million loan payment Friday and a $15 million bond coupon next week. The company said last month it needs new funds to meet its obligations and stay in business.
Representatives for Ashmore and JPMorgan declined to comment on the debt talks and the offer, while a spokeswoman for Pimco wasn’t immediately available. An external spokesman for Afren employed by Bell Pottinger declined to comment.
Afren said Feb. 13 that it’s in recapitalization talks with existing stakeholders and a third-party investor. Fitch Ratings cut the company’s credit grade on Jan. 27 to C, saying “that default is imminent.”
The group owes about $250 million on its 11.5 percent bonds due February 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The notes were little changed at 40 pence on the pound, the data show.
http://boards.fool.co.uk/afrentermination-of-discussions-with-seplat-13165979.aspx?sort=whole#13173200