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Falkland Islands set for more success in 2010
In just over a decade, the Falkland Islands - with its rich oil reserves - has transformed itself into a hotbed for London's leading oil explorers.
In 1998, the British-ruled territory was considered to have poor hydrocarbon reserves, and the North Falkland Basin had just six wells under its belt, all of which were plugged and abandoned.
Fast forward to 2010 and an estimated 327 million has been ploughed into offshore projects as British-based companies clamour to get their hands on the territory believed to hold up to 60 billion barrels of oil.
While oil prices were just $10 a barrel in the late 1990s, today it has a price tag of almost $75 a barrel and the stakes are a lot higher.
The region, split into the North and Southern Basins, has attracted the attentions of Desire Petroleum (DES), Rockhopper Exploration (RKH), Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL), Borders and Southern Petroleum (BOR) and, most recently, mining heavyweight BHP Billiton (BLT).
Rockhopper Exploration and Desire Petroleum have become the two principal operators of the North Falkland Basin, while its fellow oil producers concentrate on tackling the South Basin.
David Hart of WestHouse Securites, says that while the Northern Basin lacks the expanse of the South and East Falkland Basins, he believes "reserves in the hundreds of millions of barrels of oil can be reasonably expected."
Rockhopper Exploration, first admitted to AIM in 2005, was attracted to the acreage as it was deemed relatively low risk in exploration terms, with both proven oil and gas.
After raising a hefty 50 million in October 2009, Rockhopper - which owns a 100% interest in Licences PL023, PL024, PL032 and PL033 and has farmed-in to Licences PLO3 and PLO4 - is now bracing itself for the "most exciting period" since its inception.
It has teamed up with partner Desire to embark on a drilling programme starting this month, after securing the Ocean Guardian rig from Diamond Offshore Drilling.
While the terms of the contract are for a four well, eighty-day campaign, operator Desire retains the option to drill a further six wells for itself or its partner.
Since announcing the securing of the rig, Desire's share price has climbed steadily, rising as much as 27% in the last month. Rockhopper enjoyed similar success, rising over 18% throughout January.
Hart of WestHouse Securities, adds: "Clearly, 2010 is a big year for the North Falkland Basin explorers and we expect a steady diet of drilling news beginning in February. Having studied prior drilling data and numerous technical studies of the region over the years, we believe the two companies are now ideally placed to pursue a successful drilling programme assuming the geology works.
"Despite the raised awareness of the two groups' intentions, both are still substantially undervalued according to our valuations."
In the more daring south of the region operates Falkland Oil & Gas and Borders & Southern Petroleum.
The South Basin possesses a single rich source rock which spreads across the entire Southern Basins, from the Magallanes Basin in Argentina to the Maurice Ewing Bank some 800 kilometres east of the Islands. However, it poses a greater risk to explorers and shareholders alike due to the fact it has not yet been penetrated and remains in the very earliest stage of exploration.
Nevertheless, while Rockhopper and Desire have a lower risk profile, the rich resources of the Southern Basins mean Borders and Falkland Oil and & Gas could be faced with greater opportunities should their drilling activities come up trumps.
Fox Davies Capital believes said that there is a "fair chance of success in the 10 or so wells that will be drilled in 2010/11".
Falkland Oil & Gas is to embark on a drilling programme in the southeast of the region in April, along with partner and mining heavyweight BHP Billiton - which farmed in for 51% in 2009 - and has an option on the third drilling slot on the rig commissioned by Desire and Rockhopper.
Falkland Oil & Gas's shares have doubled during the course of 2009, leaving the company worth 228 million and shot up 21% in January alone.
Just as recently as November, Falkland Islands Holdings netted a handsome 3.1 million profit after offloading three million shares in Falkland Oil and Gas proving the company's growing worth.
Finally, Borders, which holds a 100% equity interest and operatorship of five production licences covering an area of 20,000 kilometres, is expected to start drilling towards the close of the year.
In January 2009, the company announced an initial review of its 3D seismic interpretations which, it said, highlighted three principal play fairways.
"Within these play fairways, multiple prospects were generated that, in common with analogous geological settings, could deliver in the success case multi-billion barrels of total recoverable reserves," Lionel Therond of Fox Davies Capital notes.
"We believe that the presence of companies such as BHP and Petrobras as farm-in partners respectively with Falkland Oil & Gas and across the Argentinean border in the Malvinas Basin to the West with Repsol, emphasise the attractiveness of the whole area," Therond added.
All four of the AIM-listed Falklands-focused groups have outperformed the AIM Oil&Gas Index over the last five years, as greater exploration opportunity helped to drive share prices higher. While they temporarily faulted in the second half of 2008 as the onslaught of the financial crisis took its toll, they were back on form by the start of 2009 and have gained 40-60% over the past three months.
With such success under their belts, 2010 could become a bumper year for the oil explorers.