rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

US futures tend to turn round mid-am so as they are up now, it doesn't look particularly good for later on unless the pattern changes

Dealers normally check dow futures at 11:00 to confirm trends, dow is up 225 and rising at the moment, so lets see what happens when the early risers arise stateside.

Seems to have bounced off 2002 support or just below it. There could be an arbitrage opportunity with dow/s&p ratio running at 1:10 when certainly when I last checked it was 1:8 so considering a market neutral long s@p/ short dow although not sure how to gear it should it be 8 long s@p for every dow point or ten ?

Sorry Falcothou I have never traded that way, but I'm sure there are people here who have. But you have aroused my interest, so I will rearch later.

Good luck........

anyone any views on yesterdays 4pm 4 hourly candle plus todays 10am hourly?
does yesterdays count? 3 1/2 hours of it was after close.( in the futures 24 hour) anyone?
regards
jkd

Goldman pouring fuel on the fire:


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Unemployment will reach 9%, from 6.5% currently, by the end of 2009 and the economy will shrink in each quarter until mid-2009, said economists at Goldman Sachs on Friday. The firm's forecasts are lower than previous predictions due to "continuing signs of falling domestic and foreign demand, labor market deterioration, renewed tightening in financial conditions, and an apparent impasse in fiscal policy pending the transfer of power to the Obama administration in late January," analysts wrote in a note. If unemployment reaches that level, it would be "unequivocally the worst single downturn on record since World War II." Gross domestic product will shrink 5% this quarter, and 3% and 1% in the subsequent quarters, they said. The forecast leads to a 25% decline in after-tax corporate profits, which would be the worst since the Great Depression.

Are Goldman Suchs still forecasting the oil price reaching $200 per barrel next year? I suppose nowadays their guess is as good as mine.

it wasn,t a guess halifax , they and Merrill lynch run the oil market and they were trying to move it up.

We know that but they failed because their antics were so transparent.

Opec may be more effective at moving the price up, certainly in the short term.

what OPEC says and what OPEC does often bear no relation!

Halifax I think they were targeting $50 after they closed their oil longs and opened the shorts

sorry if i misunderstand,
am i on the wrong thread guys? oil?
regards
jkd

What everybody needs is for oil to start rising again....ftse would climb as well.

DOW climbed nearly 500 points on the back of no significant news that I can see, unless it was Citigroup's rescue which triggered it?
I think a lot of people will be very glad that oil has collapsed back to $50 a barrel (Consumers rather than investors), so enjoy it while it lasts rf !!!

I've noticed a lot more cars on the road as of late...no doubt : cheaper oil prices !....at a guess oil has to rise at some stage....it costs a packet to get it out of the ground !.

anyone think the fiscal package to be announced tomorrow will have any real or immediate impact? .... is a cut of 2.5% in VAT really going to stimulate a buying spree? ...... can't see it myself

No chance the electorate aren't that stupid, they know cash is king at the moment, a reduction in vat doesn't put any money in your pocket.

"is a cut of 2.5% in VAT really going to stimulate a buying spree?"

No chance.

But is buying really drying up - or simply moving down a slot?

You can't afford a new house so you spend some of the money you have saved on a car.

You can't justify buying a fresh car so you treat yourself to the plasma you have always wanted.

IMHO people are still spending. They can't kick the habit, so they buy less expensive goodies.

Interesting article in yesterday's FT about the problems of calling a restaurant a restaurant. Makes it sound pricey - so you call it a brasserie or bistro or whatever.

TP

if you think people are still spending, then take a walk down your high street ..... reality does not lie!