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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

ptholden - 03 Aug 2007 21:34 - 351 of 504

dynamix, I agree entirely with your comments, the point I was making to maggie (and you also agree) is not to rely on just one 'system'. When I first started studying TA I got hung up on MACD bullish / bearish divergence nearly to the exclsuion of everything else, it didn't take me long to realise it wasn't a good system! (Incidentally, I still have an awful lot of TA to study). Finding your posts very useful btw, as I am sure are others :)

pth

PS Well done Mr Cynic.

cynic - 03 Aug 2007 22:49 - 352 of 504

I must guard against hubris, for last 4 calls i have made on Dow have proved profitable ..... confess i fear for Monday though after hours, index looks to have recovered above 13205 which is potentially quite critical, even though i had set my limit 60 points higher where there was a lesser support - non-existent it would seem!

maggiebt4 - 04 Aug 2007 01:27 - 353 of 504

Gentlemen? this is the best thread I've read on this BB because it is giving me the tools to make informed decisions. Much better than "Technical Advice for Dummies" book. I find all of the info interesting and try to understand the concepts. I have already worked out that the best way is to use all the TA that I understand. Having said that I'm only a beginner and I really do appreciate the time spent by all of you to point me in the right direction. Please don't stop.
PS I think one concept I can't get my brain around is patience

Pth What happened with the last trend line, is it working would appreciate an update - in your own time
Absolutely brilliant thread so says Harvey wallbanger sss

cynic - 04 Aug 2007 08:53 - 354 of 504

i think the markets in general could be in for a very torrid few weeks unless Dow has an unexpectedly strong day on Monday ....... if there is no further bad news on sub-prime etc over w/e that is just conceivable, though i shall not be betting on it until there is some positive indication ..... Dow after close just about struggled back over the potentially critical 13205 mark.

Strawbs - 04 Aug 2007 09:27 - 355 of 504

The FTSE is very close to support. Given the sell off in the DOW last night, it's just possible we'll see it breached on Monday with a head down towards the key 6000 level. It should probably bounce from there. The only danger is a bounce that would start to form a "head and shoulders" pattern. If the FTSE fails to rally significantly then it could mean further declines. Given the amount of TA used in the market I suspect traders and institutions will have seen these possibilities and take advantage of them. I suspect most people here are holding shares outside of the FTSE 100, but the psychological impact of continued falls will no doubt ripple outwards.

I'm not sure how you post images on here so maybe someone could illustrate. Left shoulder peak mid Feb 07 6444, base around 6000, head peak mid June 6732, right shoulder forming down to 6000. A bounce and fail upto 6300 ish possibly completing the pattern.

In my opinion.....

Strawbs.

maddoctor - 05 Aug 2007 14:44 - 356 of 504

for those who cannot read charts the spx and nasdaq both fell thro the supporting trendline whilst the dow sits just below

UKX support at 6186

ptholden - 05 Aug 2007 22:56 - 357 of 504

<a href=Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

GF

Apologies I missed your post, but FWIW her's my opinion. The white trendline is obviously the longer term uptrend, which in the event of any pull backs should provide support, so any downside limited to 100p and rising. The other trend (blue) is somewhat immature in that it hasn't been overly tested over a lengthy period, so will be interesting to see if it holds should the occasion arise. Actually neither trend line is particularly challenging, both being relatively shallow. Overall it's a nice steady chart with the odd leap followed by a period of consolidation. It tried to break out above the 120p level last week and fell back, I wouldn't be surprised to see if it has another go, although with the current market volatility who knows? Incidentally the long term chart shows a sort of 'saucer' or even 'cup and handle' pattern forming, well possibly, so if you believe in that sort of thing, long term could see a return to 160p by the end of the year.

pth

cynic - 06 Aug 2007 10:47 - 358 of 504

shan't be in the office this afternoon for otherwise would have been very tempted indeed to go long on Dow .... however, it is quite a dangerous call though odds are in favour of at least a temporary bounce, but as i can't monitor shall be a good boy for once!

cynic - 06 Aug 2007 20:50 - 359 of 504

having got home about 18:30 i took the plunge ...... the record will show the result as i am far too modest!

dynamix - 06 Aug 2007 21:31 - 360 of 504

I hope you are all looking for potential reversal bars on stocks for the morning right now?

I have 3 major Dax ones to watch along with the usual bunch of UKs. It might not be the bottom, but for short termers like me could be good gains.

cynic - 06 Aug 2007 21:38 - 361 of 504

may be too late by opening time ..... FTSE indicator is already showing +70, so unless already long ......

dynamix - 06 Aug 2007 21:41 - 362 of 504

theres always the pullback and gap fill to get in on

no point buying the open

dynamix - 06 Aug 2007 21:42 - 363 of 504

Id rather wait for the horse to bolt instead of anticipating

dynamix - 06 Aug 2007 21:52 - 364 of 504

I think this is my fave candidate, if it can show some strength above todays close without dropping below it I could be in for x per point

basbw6.jpg

dynamix - 06 Aug 2007 21:54 - 365 of 504

UK I would say RB.

maggiebt4 - 06 Aug 2007 22:44 - 366 of 504

Hope this isn't a stupid question but how would I recognise a potential reversal bar.

cynic - 07 Aug 2007 07:41 - 367 of 504

look in your rear-view mirror!

BigTed - 07 Aug 2007 07:49 - 368 of 504

come on Richard, that was a stupid answer...lol

cynic - 07 Aug 2007 07:50 - 369 of 504

in a frivolous and frisky mood after last night's continuing good fortune

dynamix - 07 Aug 2007 09:27 - 370 of 504

lol
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