ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

maddoctor

A doctor who admits he's mad! he's got to be sane!

Incidentally, if you really are a doctor, could you comment on the Alizyme thread, please.

I note that Quentin Griffiths, the Director who resigned in June, has sold 1.3M shares 'to satisfy institutional demand'. I suspect that institutional demand is far from satisfied and will help to carry the price up as positive trading reports continue to emerge.

Eric

ewrobson , no real comment on azm

Looks like the mms are on drugs this morning

capa

I particularly liked PUKEMAN's comment which was blank and probably very significant! What made you puke, man? (Sorry, that's a bit sick!).

Seriously, today's trading makes very interesting reading. Having been out for the day on the golf course (not quite Ryder Cup standard), you can sometimes get a better reading looking at the overall pattern. Comments:

1. The market initially went down with a bout of selling; may have been evil K and his evil spirits. Price dropped to 56.0 by 8.11 on 50K of sales.

2. Consistent buying at 57.0, market recovers to 59.0 by 9.17 on 135K of buys.

3, Buying continues to outweigh selling until price reaches 61.5 at 9.51. Total buys/sells just 350K so a lot of volatility without volume (total 235K buys and 115K sells).

4. Selling gradually catches up buying over rest of day finishing with a volume of 750K and a return to the starting point on price (53/39 buys to sells). Fairly typical volume. Spread back to three points whereas it had been 1 point at the middle of the day's trading when the even balance had been established.

I suspect you can learn quite a bit about the mm's tactics from the above which could inform the timing of transactions. Perhaps more pertinently, there appears to be a resistance point downwards at 57p and upwards about 62p, suggesting that the share might trade horizontally for a while. Views?

Eric

Eric

Also out on the Golf Course this afternoon, so missed most of the trading, although ASC was up when I went out. As you know I am quite sceptical about the value of ASC at the moment, but as I don't hold any, it's not a worry. I still believe the shares are overbought and overhyped and think that they may possibly retrace to lower levels. Having said that, they have traded more or less sideways since EK and others announced their shorts, so a plus so far. Clearly at the moment the Bulls and Bears are at a stalemate and it will be interesting to see which way it goes.The charts don't give a great deal of help either; Although the the MACD shows a Bearish Moving Average Crossover, this is the most common indicator and therefore results in the most false indicators. Not much help from the MA chart either, it's hit the 10 day so far, but that's not much help either. Personally I would buy some of these if they were a bit lower, so have a sort of vested interest, but a very difficult call at the moment.

regards

PTH

eric?, I'm watching for an entry , bears seem unable at the mo to drive price below 55( candles do suggest they are trying) and that number is the one to watch imo.

ptholden

We had unforecast rain in East Kent just as we started the round, which was a match so we couldn't stop, which is the most unacceptable type of rain to have!

I agree asos is a difficult read if you are not already in. I have been taking profits to bring a very much overweight situation down to a 'somewhat overweight'. What is your length of view? One month and I see other situations with potentially more positive newsflow (e.g. YOO, AZM - see bb's, but there will be many others in an active reporting season). Two months; not certain we will hear much and the price could drift. Interim results to end-September)? Year end has changed so not sure when we will have these; ASOS tend to be on the ball so we should have them late-October or early-November. Trading could be going through the roof by then with the additional buyers, additional lines, overseas markets and the Xmas season coming on. But why should ASOS say anything? They won't need any more funds, so why not just get on with expanding a fantastically successful business.

But I certainly would not want to be without a decent stake and I will, unless the price roars away in which case I am winning anyway, increase my holding when it becomes clear more positive news is imminent. This is the share of the year and you must, underlined which I can't do, buy in!

Eric

maddoctor

Agree 55p. I would be surprised in extremis if the bears do succeed. My point in analysing today's trading was that they had a go first thing. That's when they would try, wouldn't they. 50K in 8 minutes knocked the price down 1,75p but what happens, investors come piling in so what do they do, buy back later in the day at 60p+? or hold and try again tomorrow? I would like to be a fly on the wall - better there than trodden underfoot!

Eric

Eric

Can't really see the Interims doing much positive for the SP, IMHO it's now all priced in. I really do believe that this needs to settle down for a while, and find a reasonably priced level. Depending on what you read that could be anywhere between 40 and 55p. On the other hand if the shorters chicken out, it will go the other way at a rate of knots! I think we will know in the next few weeks. I am going to sit this one out for a while and if I miss out, well I'll survive for another day.

regards

PTH

ptholden

OK, not a problem! Would advise that you keep a close watch. Much as I am doing having reduced my holding to free up funds for punts elsewhere. This is really saying that the price won't move very much until trading indicators for the Xmas season. If I'm wrong, more likely to be that that the price moves ahead in advance on institutional buying. Cap. may be reasonable on projected PE's but they mean little when a company like ASOS is in the explosive growth phase; not being held back by limits on opening stores, for instance.

Eric

Hi Eric

Looks like following today's small drop, the SP has reached its first real support level. Another drop on Monday it's through the 50EMA and a possible next stop at 45p. MACD nor volume are not looking too encouraging either. All depends on next week to see who's in charge. If it reaches 30p I might buy some. LOL

Regards

PTH

ptholden

Your graphs are fascinating. My comments about them and then other considerations.

I take it that your comment re 55p relates to the effect of breaking the 50EMA graph. I tend to agree that 50 days is more or less the most meaningful in this case: it approximates to the frequency of news items so that, if there is no news for more than 50 days, its quite possible that the graph will turn downwards on the oosoom principle (out of ...). Momentum and signal divergence are most positive when news has led to buying. There does appear to be resistance at around 57p and it appears, from looking at the trading, that that price attracts the buyers back in. It will be helpful to keep an eye on these graphs over the coming months.

I am as certain as one can be in an uncertain world that, with your 30p criterion, that you will never buy ASOS. This would be a shame as you are a helpful chap! I have drawn attention above to the upward trend in the share price which is well reflected in the EMA50 and EMA200. Its all about changing perceptions and indeed about rapidly improving fortunes of the company. The point about the major news items this year is that each has revised upwards previous trading levels and both company and broker projections. Its almost as if we have a new type of animal here - a successful internet company for a start; but an exponential trading pattern taking into account an increasing client base by referrals and an increase in product lines as new buyers have come on board, each resulting in a significant increase in revenue without anything like a corresponding increase in overheads. This is why many of us who have contributed to this thread see SP forecasts of 1 for the shareprice as being within touching distance and merely a staging post rather than a pause for breath. Having said that, the price could trade sideways for some time and even ease a bit. Hope you change your mind and say thank you in a few months time!

Eric

Eric

Thank you for your comments, as always a compelling read. Must say that 30p was just a little tongue in cheek! Although 45p looks atractive and also possible. Problem with explosive growth in the SP, the charts do not have time to build many real and recognisable levels of support and resisatnce; having said that, I agree that 57-65p appears to be a resistance and certainly 45p is a Support level. I hope for all ASOS holders, the SP does not dip below this level, otherwise 30p may really be on, (I just can't help thinking about BPRG!). Interesting to note that a self confessed Shorter on a rival BB has closed his short, although no news on EK and his followers that I am aware of.

I continue to watch and read with interest.

Regards

PTH

Hmm.

Lower high?

Evening Eric

This is becoming a daily habit.

Slightly different observation today. SP down again, note that the SP now intersects the 50EMA in a downward trend, (sell signal). Last time this happened, the SP contrarily rallied at 48p. Additionally the SP is just touching the lower Bollinger Band indicating ASC are now oversold, previously the SP rallied at the same level as before. Tomorrow will be a defining day for the ASC in the short term. If the SP fails to rally, I believe the Support at 45p will be tested.

regards

PTH

ptholden

The Bollinger Band looks fascinating - source of decent write-up (or short explanation)? Reasonable volume at 1M; 43/57 B to S which wouldn't seem to justify a 3p mark-down. Volumes proportionate; the price swings suggest the mm's keep themselves short of stock and aim to balance buying and selling. Still think it would be odd if the 45p level were tested as there has been positive trading news since then. Mind, I would be happy to rebuild my stake around that price.

Regards, Eric

Eric,

Borrowed this explanation from another site, (I'll post the URL if interested). As you can see from the chart the thoery can easily be applied. What id doexn't say is that a stock may be considered to be oversold when in the limit of the Lower Band, (or below) and vice versa. Got that from somewhere else but can't remeber where!

Bollinger Bands measure volatility by placing trading bands around a moving average. These bands are charted two standard deviations away from the average, so as the average changes, the value of two standard deviations also changes. This value comprises the Bollinger Band Width, representing the expanding and contracting of the bands based on recent volatility.

During a period of rising price volatility, the distance between the two bands will widen (BB Width will increase). Conversely, during a period of low market volatility, the distance between the two bands will contract (BB Width will decrease).

There is a tendency for bands to alternate between expansion and contraction. When the bands are unusually far apart, that is often a sign that the current trend may be ending. When the distance between the two bands has narrowed too far, that is often a sign that a market may be about to initiate a new trend.

Regards

PTH