18th October 2007 : Leadcom voted "AIM International Company of the Year for 2007"




Main Web Site : http://www.leadcom-is.com/

Investor Relations Email : investorsinfo@leadcom-is.com

That's good news, thanks PP, the sp has ticked up a bit as well.
2517

Bit of a Tech Stock recovery on the US markets, a good sign ahead of the Autumn :)

Interims last week of August, so once we get August underway should be plenty of interest. Late August/Sept is the cyclical recovery period of AIM shares, the start of it, and with Tech as well coming back into the interest arena, things look positive for August/Sept and also the final 2 months Nov/Dec.

LEAD presently on a forward PER of just over times 9, and that is without ANY India potential, as the brokers say, anything from India will be an immediate upgrade, and could in total put that forward PER down to under times 5. For a stock that should be on 15 times forward at least, that means there is POTENTIAL for plenty of upside. So sit back and enjoy the Autumn and Winter :) once we get boring July out of the way.

Altium Capital reiterate their Buy rating and 105p target price :

11-Jul-06 Altium Capital Buy 58.50p 105.00p - Reiteration

(This excludes any potential India work, as the broker note says, anything from India is an immediate upgrade to forecasts)

And that target excludes any India potential, as per the write up, extract below, and link is posted before (Altium 2nd July report)


"With regard to India, where Leadcom opened an office earlier in the year, progress has been encouraging and the company is bidding on a number of opportunities, some very significant, and will announce any contract wins in due course. We reiterate that there is nothing in our forecasts for any revenue from India and therefore any contract win would lead to an upgrade."

Interview with Leadcom CEO Ari Alcalay
Chief Executive Officer

Dated July 12, 2006


Listen with Windows Media Player, link below :
http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/interview.php?id=19030&player=wma

Listen with Real Player, link below :
http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/interview.php?id=19030&player=real

So from the Altium report (2nd July) they say forecasts do not take anything from India into account, and any contract wins will be an immediate upgrade.

Arik says in the WSR interview "India will have "some impact on 2006 H2" but MAJOR earnings impact in 2007".

This firms up a bit the "company maker" potential of the Indian deal, some deals that could double 2007 pr EPS, and make LEAD very undervalued going forward, with such high visibility of orders and order book.

Still no official news on the Airtel & Ericsson mega deal in India (the other one) reported in the Indian press (from sources) mid June. Obviously the sources were wrong about "pending" news, and negotiation is still going on.

Press link Airtel ( http://ia.rediff.com/money/2006/jun/15eric.htm )
Press link BSNL ( http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1035088 )

The links below help understand the major projects presently being bagged for Ericcson and Nokia, so worth watching for first news on any India deals, Airtel or BSNL. Ericsson rumoured to take on Airtel, with Nokia/Siemens getting the 60% of BSNL.

http://today.reuters.com/stocks/KeyDevelopments.aspx?symbol=ERICb.ST

http://today.reuters.com/stocks/keydevelopments.aspx?ticker=NOK.N

If news is just around the corner, why are people still continuing to sell?

kazik, because you find most private investors sell just before news...........as they do not watch the big picture.

Most recent sells will have been due to mid-East violence, its all small stuff, 1K here, 5K there, 25K here...........small PI's selling.

Time will tell on this one, you can ask the same question on HML, I was buying at 0.7p when others were dumping their loads selling at 0.6p.........and who was right ? Or when I was buying OSH at 9p when people were selling at 8p and the story goes on and on..............not that I am always right, as often wrong ! :)

July 2006 Investors Presentation : Link Click Here (PDF File)

If you want to keep an eye on a summary of infratructure contracts awarded (not full list but gives most of them) to different suppliers (like Nokia, Nortel etc...) then this site is very helpful :

http://www.mobileisgood.com/vendors.html

Spiffing-----down 10% so far on small volume, I don't know but I sure as hell hope it's the MM's trying to lower the price before topping up.
2517

I can't imagine the Israel/Lebanon/Gaza conflicts will do a lot for the PR of the company.

Yes, went down badly on the Israel/Hezbollah situation, but although its battered the price, the company remains the same, still growing etc... just this present ME crisis is making it really cheap to get into high growth profitable Isreali tech stocks.

From the big mid price trades yesterday it would suggest a forced seller or distressed seller was taken out at 48p, thats why the sudden drop down. Pulling back now.

No Papalpower for 7 days, has he given up. Used to post every day!!!!!

I am fine thanks, just waiting for events to unfold and the pre-Interim results buying to start. Quiet for a couple more weeks perhaps, and then off we should go.

This was the MM Notes from 30th June (Morning Meeting with a BUY rec from Altium). The Middle East situation and general small cap malaise is holding LEAD back at its depressed price, but it is one I expect, at such time, to rebound quickly.


Extracts : (Price was at this stage 60p and the Caribbean order (11th July) not known as yet)

- Encouraging H1 trading update
Leadcom has issued a trading update for the six months to 30 June. Revenue for the period is expected to be approximately $62m, equating to 32% growth YoY and 22.5% sequentially. Management is confident that the company can sustain this level of sequential growth in H2. Normalised PBT margins are likely to be maintained at the same level as last year (c. 11%).

- Order book, pipeline progress
The order book and frame agreements combined currently stand at c.$80m, the vast majority of which will be recognised this year. If we assume the normal conversion rate of 90%, that suggests that $72m of revenue, on top of the $62m already recorded in H1, is already visible for the remainder of the year, equating to $134m out of our forecast of $140.7m. On top of this, the pipeline of over $300m suggests a further $100m of revenue given Leadcoms usual conversion rate of approximately 33%, to be delivered over the next 18 months. Admittedly most of this will be recognised in FY 2007E but it only requires less than 7% of that to fall in FY 2006E to beat our current revenue estimates, even if no new orders are taken in H2, something of a remote possibility. This gives us further comfort that, as we have argued many times, our forecasts are conservative.

- New contract wins
The group has recently been awarded several contracts, each with an annual contract value of $1-5m. It is pleasing to see one in Italy, confirming that Leadcom is not solely focusing on emerging market growth. With regard to India, where Leadcom opened an office earlier in the year, progress has been encouraging and the company is bidding on a number of opportunities, some very significant, and will announce any contract wins in due course. We reiterate that there is nothing in our forecasts for any revenue from India and therefore any contract win would lead to an upgrade.

- No change to forecasts
We are not adjusting our forecasts at this stage of the year but, as mentioned above, believe that our full year estimates are eminently achievable and that, with further contract wins, they could be materially exceeded. Following the recent share price weakness, Leadcom trades at just 11x pre-options earnings for FY 2006E, falling to 8.5x for FY 2007E. We believe that this is undeservedly low for a company with such a strong track record and where profits are (conservatively) forecast to grow at a compound rate of more than 40% for the next three years. BUY.


..........and that was at 60p...........

how low will this go PP i want it as low as possible to get some more 50 the lowest as that was teh issue price?


Gr8 Research!