will it ever recover to the 38p i paid for them??

my view is that since there is no negative news then i am happy at this level. If any airline said NO then that would have to be released to the mkt. they haven't.

the box pays for itself within 12 months so i think just sit tight and wait and see.

proptrade - I absolutely agree with you. Aerobox must make sense and eventually prevail given its remarkable qualities and short pay-back time. Airline cargo must pick up, especially given the massive GDP growth rates predicted for India and China A Chinese JV would make a great deal of sense, the CEO has already been over for discussions. I am sure it will bear fruit in the end. They have to ship their goods somehow. Not to mention all the little niche applications of immense value, like KelvinBox for shipping refrigerated drugs which have a typical spoil rate of somethign massive like 45% if I'm not mistaken in existing containers. Then there are the terrestrial and military applications to be developed.

Just make that sale, boy!

sd

In the AGM statement of 19/5/2005 we were told that the company had built up significant quantities of core raw materials so as to avoid any future shortages when orders came in, could this be an indication that a significant order is expected , and if so will it be announced prior to June 30th half year end (last year an announcement of an order was made arround this time ).Also how much of the cash deterioration from 3.5 million (December) down to 2.5million (April 30th 2005) has been a result of the stockpiling of materials.

i am seriously considering wading in here. mkt cap is bugger all, potentail is huge and downside from here if it all goes tits up is 5.25p. upside on decent sized order to secure future could be minimum 1 bag but potentially 10+ on the basis that it could become industry standard.

Add the fridge units and military use and we could be far higher.

i know i sound like a ramper but for you guys that know me i have been on the sidelines for ages and now see true value.

a cash call right now would cripple the price but you know what, at a mkt cap of 6 million they have so little to fall. 134million shares in issue i may soon be able to claim a place on the board!

Anyone know who the current top shareholders are ?

Substantial shareholders
As at 22 March 2005, the following substantial shareholders have been notified to the group.
Number of Ordinary % of Issued
Shares of 1p each Share Capital
HSBC Global Custody Nominee (UK) Limited 9,678,572 7.2%
Chase Nominees Limited 7,170,000 5.3%
T. Hoare Nominees Limited 7,100,000 5.3%
Securities Services Nominees Limited 6,010,000 4.5%
TD Waterhouse Nominees (Europe) Limited 5,910,463 4.4%
Mellon Nominees (UK) Limited 5,694,657 4.2%
Barclayshare Nominees Limited 5,621,001 4.2%

proptrade/TGD, hi

The danger spot is the cashflow - can they survive long enough on the cash they have to get to a sustainable flow of orders in time?

Operating cash out Y2004 was about 2.5m - let's assume this is 3.0m p.a. for 2005 with increased sales effort and geared up for production etc - somewhat pessimistic I think, but it's conservative.

At 31st December they had 3.9m cash balance, less one third of a year operating cashflow, leaves 2.9m. But they reported only 2.5m cash balance at AGM on 30th April, so can we assume they spent 400k on raw materials and possibly some fixed assets?

Anyway, they have 2.5m to cover estimated 2m for remaining 8 months of year to December 2005. Enough plus some to buy more materials/contingency - but ONLY enough. Then there's next year!

Significant sales definitely required this year to move towards cashflow neutral for survival. Some sales (even just one!) by 30th June for the SP to survive at this level, IMHO.

Proptrade - my suggestion (not that I would dream of offering you advice) is take a punt with half what you'd like to invest now at rock-bottom prices and add the other half on first sale being reported.

For me, the temptation to average down from 17.35p to 9.9p by investing only 50% of what I've got in already is very tempting, BUT has the knife reached stasis or is it just hovering over the edge of the next precipice? Then the problem is what can I sell to fund this, since no spare cash at present?

So should I/you take a punt on the rumours we hear from the Paris airshow? Anyone heard anything more?

All advice welcome!

sd

googling around a bit, I came across this article which though old (Feb 2005) neatly encapsulates the story which I still find compelling.

http://www.globalcomposites.com/news/news_fiche.asp?id=1651&

nice article. cheers SD.

For the record i have invested 1/4 of my usual size so far and will add into orders.

there comes a time when a punt is necessary and as i have said over the last few posts there is very little downside from here to zero. had i bought at 17 i probably would average some in here but that is just me...

it is a waiting game but i hope that we see results very soon...

thanks -p/t - looks like you have a good strategy at work. good luck with it - see you on the way past!

sd

tickup...

offer marked up two ticks to .575 bid remains at .5 on zero volume - MMs trying to crfeate a little action on a very sleepy Friday and Wimbledon hasn't even started today yet.

googling again! here's a fairly recent (June) interesting industry background piece putting the ULD market into perspective. I hope the board of ARX is completely familiar with its contents.

If ARX could get a foot in the door at Jettainer and other outsourced ULD managers maybe that's a better way to go thatn via airlines per se.

See what you think. (Sorry, only available to complete anoraks!)

sd

http://www.payloadasia.com/Magazine/current/06_05/0605_supplement1.html

posted onth3i bb by Island hopper 2


' From the AGM Statement of Watermark

New Revenue Streams

Additionally, and following our successful settlement with Aerobox, the Company intends to re-enter the market place for lightweight aircraft containers, and has received further orders for these.'

hmmm - do you imagine airlines have been waiting to buy Watermanrk in preference to Aerobox?

never! no point. ARX has the leverage once orders come in. it is just one part of watermarks business...

is it me or is something going on here....

by the way, sorry to sound a little abrupt in my last post SD!

SP up 1p in active trading - nearly all buys. Is there news in the wind about to break?

not sure, but for the record some other wind just broke...

give yourself a pat on the back - usually helps!