rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

for sure automakers will be bailed out as 00s of 000s jobs at stake, but would like to see a forensic auditor go through these companies and weed out the rubbish

I suspect they have little room for manoeuvre because of union regulations and dealer contracts agreed in the past. Perhaps chapter 11 might be a good thing if they can reorganise and emerge in better shape afterwards. It would probably be bad for the markets, but might be a better solution. Congress might be brave I suppose, now the elections are out of the way. Be interesting to see which way they finally jump.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Hopefully by the end of December most hedge funds will either be wiped out or will finish closing their positions to cover redemptions and then sanity/confidence will return to markets.

As it unveils recovery plan, Ford says its sales plummeted 31% in November over last year ...... so what action did the management take? ...... answers on a postage stamp ..... suggestions of what they should and could have done would take many pages

I think if we get another big down leg to complete the huge double top formation it'll be seen as a good base to rally from. Ultimately though, if the recession, slump, depression or whatever it turns out to be drags on through out next year, I can see the FTSE and DOW going much lower.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Halifax it may be private equities' turn once the hedge funds have been trimmed!

Strawbs in the short term you may well prove right but sooner or later streetwise investors will realise the world economy is so much stronger than in was say in 1929.

as always, it is as difficult to call the bottom as it is the top ..... a good example is that we are now told that US entered recession a year ago, but the markets sure as hell did not reflect that

as always, will post not only "as i see it" but as our (chem/shipping) biz perceives it .... at the moment, traffic is a little quieter and there is certainly some softness, but nothing untoward ..... all of us are watching almost on a day/day basis .... my own opinion is that things will/should (i hope) start to pick up in Q3/4 2009

"I think if we get another big down leg to complete the huge double top formation it'll be seen as a good base to rally from"

Strawbs. Another down leg? Surely that would make it a triple top?

EDIT. Sorry. I see you are asking for a bigger drop on the current leg. I'd love one to get this malaise over and done with quickly.

TP

No. That would mean a rally to 6.5K first. I refer to the possible double top formation for the FTSE I pointed out in October;



Strawbs.

OK strawbs. Understood.

My barometer is the S&P 500 and we've already hit the 09.10.02 low and passed it.

So we are doing the right thing on that chart !!

TP

S&P going down i take it rather than bouncing back up


actually, that just cannot be so .... go to page 1 of this thread and you can pick up the S&P chart even though it only goes back 1 year

Oscar really got this holiday reversal spot on a week ago and reckons it happens every time there is a 3 day holiday in states. I guess Christmas will be the next one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAGnaQseATc&feature=channel

Given the relatively low volumes of late, I suspect most technical analysts are waiting on the sidelines for a strong base before committing capital. My guess is we'll see a strong bounce at some point. Markets normally turn way before the fundamentals do, and will continue higher for sometime, assuming probably that after a year or more of recession the end is nearer than the beginning. If we get to mid/late 09 and things are no better (or even worse) then I would expect markets to collapse pretty rapidly again.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Chrysler November sales fall 47% .... but they did FA too, but nevertheless please give money in large slabs to keep my exec jet flying

that was a fun evening on Dow ..... actually got the rhythm right for a change and took profits sensibly and came out well ahead, though have not looked by how much .... not huge beans, but every little helps

Well done cynic nice to get it right! I find dow a bit hair raising at the moment so tend to trade it countertrend after the close especially after a big move[most days] . I tried buying usd/yen when dow was rallying last night and wti which did work but would been far more effective just buying dow as spreads are tighter. Signalwatch is useful to clarify the likely support resistant points and it seems sensible to place orders in those places with appropriate stop losses

I wonder what planet the brokers are on, Panmure has a sell and target price of 40p on ROK, ROK's sp has been around it's current 19p ish for weeks.
2517

Peter Lynch in his book recounts a case of a broker issuing a statement saying since going into administration we no longer rate xyz as a buy!Cityboy is quite an insight into broker notes as well ie ignore them or do the opposite!

strawbs,

You mentioned the need for a long second leg on the FTSE to identify a bottom and I said I'd seen it on the S&P 500. Actually it makes a difference as to whether you take the high/low or close figures. I think the latter will not show a lower low, but the former does. No big deal, but as the chart is on my screen I'll copy it below.



Having just got back from Oxford Street and Mayfair I see no evidence of crunch there - but that could also be a false reading like my bottom !!

TP