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I've got a query for Scrip on the soccer markets:

You stressed that the best plan is to go for strong home favourites, and I've been more or less sticking to that format. It seems to work well, though I've been surprised at the number of matches where the away team has managed to equalise after the home team has scored first (or maybe that's just Newcastle...). In matches where there's no strong favourite, how does it work out if you lay the draw, with the plan of eliminating the risk/greening up once one or other side scores? I suppose what I'm saying is - what is the risk of a no-score draw? Not only that, but is it possible to avoid most no-score draws with any accuracy using your knowledge of soccer - ie sticking to teams that tend to score/concede a lot of goals?

Sorry if you covered this during the Nov. seminar - if you did I've forgotten. I think that I could do with a revision seminar!

I've been assuming the bookies have priced the game up correctly and so the probability of a no-score draw is the current odds of the 0-0 'Correct Score'. I haven't seen a match yet where an away underdog scores first, but it's probably quite costly when it happens.

Kayak - yes, I laid off my down bet at 1.02, but didn't think there was sufficient chance of a reversal to take the 1.01 punt. With the benefit of hindsight, which I suppose ought to have been foresight, there was nice support at 4724 (Mar futures) from a couple of days ago, which in the event worked well.

Given that this bet did eventually end down, it raises an interesting dilemma: do you let the bet run to the close of the hour, or take a profit on the way. In post 301 above, you got out early which turned out to be the wrong thing. This time, if you didn't get out early, that was also wrong!

Scrip has posted this a.m. on the Betfair forum that over a long period the ftse stats are about right, so that would favour taking a reasonable profit if it became available, and greening up.

Or do you give the crystal ball an extra polish, and hope for the best?!

Well I give my plastic ball an extra polish :-)

Seriously I guess it's down to a feel for it. You're really guessing as to how and to what extent the market is being manipulated. On options expiry morning it's 80% manipulation. In these situations it's pretty safe to lay at the lowest odds you can find below 1.1. Even if it doesn't reverse all the way, you are likely to be able to close in profit. I got the 9.00 very right, the 10.00 right, and the 11.00 I messed up, by which I mean I didn't make the bucketful that was there asking to be had.

When a reversal starts to happen people rush for the exit and if you are unsure if it's going to go through the line, enter a closing bet at 1.9 or 1.99, since 2.0 is a psychological barrier for anyone on the wrong side of the action. That will get you almost half of the potential profit if you green up there. It's surprising how many times that will be filled and you can always enter again at a lower price once the panic stops. Now that's what I should have done for the 11.00 but of course I wanted to be clever and get more :-)

Thanks Kayak. Good point about the 2.0 level.

Sorry you didn't make the hat-trick, but 2 out of 3 isn't bad :-)

lizafl2 - 17 Dec'04 - 10:47 - 356 of 357

I'll reply to the email you sent me this morning so I can cover of those points as well. I was in and out of the Newcastle match breifly but it wasn't one of the matches that I was on in any great way. It probably wouldn't have been a match I would have picked.

TPO - Look forward to meeting you.

"I haven't seen a match yet where an away underdog scores first, but it's probably quite costly when it happens."

It certainly is!! Was chatting to somebody this morning about this weekends matches and talking through the various scenarios. We ran through a few where exactly that had happened in the past. Unfortunately its almost impossible to indentify when that is going to happen.

Kayak - 17 Dec'04 - 11:56 - 359 of 361

Thats a good post!

Harlosh, Further to our conversation on Friday hope you are green on your premiership match now. A perfect start!!

Scrip,

Yes I am thanks. Also greened up on Middlesborough v Villa. Man U v Palace later to look forward to.

ps. I see we can look forward to a new version of ABP soon.

John

Good to see things are improving - will try and call next week sometime - ive not been using recently as i still dont have betfair at the house!!!!!

Wow. Just greened up on United when Palace scored. Think I've learned my lesson now.

Had a good day on the football.

Steve, I'll give you a ring next week.

Harlosh, those could have easily been my posts. I too was all green on the three matces. An another excellent day.

Man U match was fun!!

Scrip,

Was a bit peeved at the Man U game. Could have had a second bite of the cherry when Palace equalised but the other half wanted to go out. Can you believe these women wanting to go out on a Saturday when there is lots of sport to be had on the PC.

Perhaps I shouldn't but I'm gonna have a bet on Arsenal Sunday. Don't fancy the Liverpool v Newcastle game.

Greened up on Arsenal for a nice win.

Well done on the Arsenal match but I wasn't on it for the reasons stated in the course.

Ftse-wtse good today :-))

Time to lay the FTSE right now then K?

..or maybe not.

Nah was too high up and too strong :-) 13.00 line is well positioned though.

nearly :-)